Over Half of Americans Say They Would Be Unlikely to Vote for President Obama if Election Were Held Today

NEW YORK, June 23, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- In May, after announcing the death of Osama bin Laden, President Obama's approval rating went up 8 points from the previous month. One month later his ratings are back to what they were in April – 38% of Americans give him positive ratings for the job he is doing and 62% give President Obama negative marks. While it is probably not surprising that over nine in ten Republicans (93%) give the President negative ratings, two-thirds of Independents (65%) and one-third of Democrats (32%) also do.

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These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,163 adults surveyed online between June 13 and 20, 2011 by Harris Interactive.

Re-election vote

Looking at the President's re-election is also cause for concern in the White House and campaign headquarters in Chicago. Early in May 46% of Americans said, if the election for President were to be held today, they would be likely to vote for President Obama and 47% said they would be unlikely. Later in May that number dropped a little and 43% said they would be likely to vote for the current president and 49% said they would be unlikely to do so. Currently, over half of Americans (52%) say they would be unlikely to vote for President Obama if the election were to be held today and 41% say they would be likely to vote for him.

Looking at his base, while three-quarters of Democrats (74%) and seven in ten Liberals (70%) say they are likely to vote for him, 21% of both Democrats and Liberals say they are unlikely to do so. Among the key swing group of Independents, over half (56%) say they are unlikely to vote for the President if the election were held today and 37% say they would vote for him. Moderates are split evenly with 47% saying they would be likely to vote for President Obama if the election were held today and 47% say they would be unlikely to do so.

Congress's approval and the direction of the country

For Congress, their job approval continues to be very bad. Just one in ten Americans (11%) give Congress positive ratings for the overall job they are doing while nine in ten (89%) give them negative marks. And this disapproval crosses all party lines. Whether it is 84% of Democrats, 90% of Independents or 94% of Republicans, it is clear that Congress needs to prove something to Americans before these numbers get better.

This general sense of dissatisfaction with the way things are going is also seen in how Americans view the direction of the country overall. Over two-thirds (68%) of U.S. adults say things in the country have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track while one-third (32%) say they are going in the right direction. This is down from mid May when 38% of Americans believed things were going in the right direction and 62% thought they were off on the wrong track.

So What?

Granted it is over one year until the actual election and, at the moment, there is no clear front-runner for who the Republican challenger will be. There is so much that will happen in the next 16 months and these numbers will go up and down many times. But, as the distress of the economy lingers and as the unemployment rate stays high, one thing is clear to the re-election campaign leadership – they need to show that their candidate understands the priorities are here at home. Announcing the troop withdrawal from Afghanistan was one step in that direction.

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.  **Negative = only fair or poor.

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.  **Negative = only fair or poor.

Methodology

This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between June 13 to 20, 2011 among 2,163 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.

J40315

Q1205, 1210, 1215, 1218

The Harris Poll® #76, June 23, 2011

By Regina A. Corso, SVP, Harris Poll, Public Relations and Youth Research, Harris Interactive

About Harris Interactive

Harris Interactive is one of the world's leading custom market research firms, leveraging research, technology, and business acumen to transform relevant insight into actionable foresight. Known widely for the Harris Poll and for pioneering innovative research methodologies, Harris offers expertise in a wide range of industries including healthcare, technology, public affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial services, insurance, media, retail, restaurant, and consumer package goods. Serving clients in over 215 countries and territories through our North American, European, and Asian offices and a network of independent market research firms, Harris specializes in delivering research solutions that help us – and our clients – stay ahead of what's next. For more information, please visit www.harrisinteractive.com.

Press Contact:
Corporate Communications
Harris Interactive
212-539-9600
[email protected]

SOURCE Harris Interactive

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