Online Labor Demand Down 99,700 in June, The Conference Board Reports

NEW YORK, June 29, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Online advertised vacancies were down 99,700 in June to 4,371,500 according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine™ (HWOL) Data Series released today.  The June drop partially offsets the rise of 148,800 in May.  The Supply/Demand rate stands at 3.11, indicating there were just over 3 unemployed for every online advertised vacancy in May, the latest monthly data available for unemployment.

"The national trend in labor demand, while still positive, has definitely slowed in the last few months as gains in one month are partially offset by a pullback in advertised vacancies in the next," said June Shelp, Vice President at The Conference Board.  "The pattern over the last few months is beginning to look like the very slow growth in labor demand in 2010. After the large increase of 526,000 in January, average monthly job growth over the next five months has been choppy and has averaged about 33,000/month.  The current number of advertised vacancies is close to the monthly 4.5 million posted just prior to the recession. However, in May there were just over 3 unemployed workers seeking jobs for each vacancy -- double the number of 1.5 unemployed for every advertised vacancy just prior to the recession."      

REGIONAL AND STATE HIGHLIGHTS

In June:

• The drop in labor demand was widespread across the Nation with 43 of the 50 states down over the month
• Alabama, North Dakota, Maine, and Minnesota post modest gains while Arkansas, Rhode Island, and Wyoming are unchanged

Among the regions, the South was down 62,800, reflecting lower labor demand in all of the larger States in the region for June.  Texas declined 21,700 to 291,300, and Florida was down 14,700 to 232,200.  Among the other large States, North Carolina and Georgia were down 7,800 and 7,000 respectively while Maryland posted a drop of 6,400 and Virginia dipped 2,400.  Among the smaller states in the South, Alabama rose 800 and Arkansas was unchanged with 26,800 online advertised vacancies in both May and June.  Other States with a smaller numbers of advertised vacancies in June included Tennessee (-2,200) and West Virginia (-1,800).  

In June, the West declined 50,400.  The largest monthly drop in advertised vacancies was in Arizona, down 15,300 to a total of 77,600. After seven months of growth, advertised vacancies in Arizona have dropped for the last two months. Washington State and Colorado posted declines of 6,600 and 6,500 respectively.  California dipped very slightly, by 800, or less than 0.2 percent, to 481,600.  Other States in the West posting declines included Utah, down 5,100, Nevada, down 2,500, and Montana, down 1,700.  With 7,800 advertised vacancies, Wyoming was one of the States with no change in June.

The Midwest slipped by 27,500 with declines in a number of its larger States including Illinois, which declined 9,900 to 167,600 in June, and Wisconsin, down 6,100.  Other large States with smaller numbers of online advertised vacancies in June included Missouri, down 3,000, Ohio, down 2,200, and Michigan, which dipped by 900 to 122,400.  Minnesota rose modestly, up 300 to 109,000.  Among the less populous States in the region, Iowa and Indiana were down 1,300 and 1,200 respectively.  North Dakota, with a gain of 400 to 13,600 advertised vacancies, was the only one of the smaller States in the region with a June increase while Nebraska and South Dakota posted declines of 900 and 400 respectively.

In June, the Northeast declined by 22,500, reflecting drops in all of the largest States in the region.  New York declined by 7,000, the third month of decline for the State (each decline in the 7,000 range), bringing the number of online advertised vacancies to 260,000.  Pennsylvania was down 6,100, and New Jersey dropped 5,400.  This was New Jersey's first decline since February 2011.  The Northeast includes the New England States, where Maine was up by 300 to 20,900 and Rhode Island was basically unchanged at 17,700.  Among the other New England States, Massachusetts was down 3,000 and Connecticut dropped by 1,900.  New Hampshire and Vermont dipped as well, down 600 and 500 respectively.

The Supply/Demand rate for the U.S. in May (the latest month for which unemployment numbers are available) stood at 3.11, indicating that there are just over three unemployed workers for every online advertised vacancy.  Nationally, there are 9.4 million more unemployed workers than advertised vacancies.  The number of advertised vacancies exceeded the number of unemployed only in North Dakota, where the Supply/Demand rate was 0.91.  States with the next lowest rates included Nebraska (1.38), Alaska (1.46), New Hampshire (1.48), and South Dakota (1.52). The State with the highest Supply/Demand rate is Mississippi (7.80), where there are nearly 8 unemployed workers for every online advertised vacancy.  There are a number of States in which there are over four unemployed for every advertised vacancy; these include Kentucky (5.14), Alabama (4.59), California (4.39), South Carolina (4.29), and West Virginia (4.11).

It should be noted that the Supply/Demand rate only provides a measure of relative tightness of the individual State labor markets and does not suggest that the occupations of the unemployed directly align with the occupations of the advertised vacancies (see Occupational Highlights section).

OCCUPATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

• In June, dips in labor demand in 14 of the 22 broad occupational groups more than offset increases in the remaining 8 categories
  • Dips occurred in labor demand in the top five occupation groups averaging more than 450,000 monthly ads
  • Occupational groups with June increases included Construction, Personal care & service, and Education, training, and library

Changes for the Month of June

In June, online advertised vacancies declined in the five broad occupational categories that average over 450,000 advertised vacancies per month. June declines in these groups ranged from a low of just over one percent in Computer and mathematical science occupations (down 7,200 to 601,000 advertised vacancies) to just over four percent in Office and administrative support (down 20,600 to 456,100) and Sales and Related occupations (down 23,500 to 578,300 ads).  Customer service representatives, tellers, first-line supervisors / managers of retail sales workers, and sales representatives in services are among the positions in Office and administrative support and Sales and related that experienced declines.  Management occupations were down 14,800, reflecting, in part, fewer advertised vacancies for managers in marketing, health services and sales.  Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations declined 16,500 in June.  Healthcare practitioners' occupations that saw declines included physical therapists, general internists, and family and general practitioners.

Occupational groups with increases in labor demand in June included Construction and extraction, up 3,800, and Architecture and engineering, up 800. Construction ads that had significant increases included first-line supervisors/managers, electricians, and carpenters, while architecture and engineering advertised vacancies for industrial engineers as well as aerospace and petroleum engineers rose in June.  Also posting modest increases in June were Education, training, and library and Personal care and service, both up 1,500.

Supply/Demand for Selected Occupations

"In June, workers in 3 of 22 of the major occupation groups are finding the number of advertised vacancies is at the highest level since the HWOL series began in June 2005," said Shelp.  (HWOL does not include a separate category for the 23rd major occupation group, military occupations).  The previous monthly highs for these three major occupational groups were as follows:  Education, training, and library, June 2007; Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance, December 2005; and Personal Care and Service, February 2008.    

Although the number of online advertised vacancies in these occupations is at new highs, the number of unemployed seeking jobs in these three occupational categories is widely different and is reflected in the variation in their Supply/demand rates.  In Education, Training, and Library occupations (a Supply/Demand rate of 3.8), there are nearly 4 unemployed job-seekers for every advertised vacancy.  This is in sharp contrast to just over 13 job-seekers for every advertised vacancy for Building and grounds cleaning & maintenance occupations (a Supply/Demand rate of 13.7).  In Personal Care and Service there are 6.3 job-seekers per vacancy.  Supply/demand rates are for May 2011, the latest data available for unemployment.

For other major occupation groups, the number of advertised openings remains below their previous monthly highs.  In Business and financial operations and Office and administrative support, for example, the respective numbers of online advertised vacancies have increased since the end of the recession but remain below their pre-recession levels.  Advertised vacancies for Legal occupations have stalled and in June were 24,100, a monthly number that is in line with the average monthly volume since the official end of the recession in June 2009.

METRO AREA HIGHLIGHTS

• Washington, D.C., Oklahoma City, Honolulu, and Boston have the lowest Supply/Demand rates

In June, all of the 52 metropolitan areas for which data are reported separately posted over-the-year increases in the number of online advertised vacancies.  Among the three metro areas with the largest numbers of advertised vacancies, the New York metro area was 8.7 percent above its June 2010 level, the Los Angeles metro area was 17.1 percent above last year's level, and the Washington, D.C. metro area was 6.4 percent above its June 2010 level.

The number of unemployed exceeded the number of advertised vacancies in all of the 52 metro areas for which information is reported separately.  Washington, DC continues to have the most favorable Supply/Demand rate (1.09) with about one advertised vacancy for every unemployed worker.  Oklahoma City, Honolulu, Boston, Minneapolis-St. Paul, Baltimore, and Milwaukee were metropolitan locations where there were just fewer than two unemployed looking for work for every advertised vacancy. On the other hand, metro areas in which the respective number of unemployed is substantially above the number of online advertised vacancies include Riverside, CA -- where there are over eight unemployed people for every advertised vacancy (8.40) -- Sacramento (5.60), Miami (5.05), and Los Angeles (4.43).  Supply/Demand rate data are for April 2011, the latest month for which unemployment data for local areas are available.

PROGRAM NOTES

The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine™ Data Series measures the number of new, first-time online jobs and jobs reposted from the previous month on more than 1,200 major Internet job sites and smaller job sites that serve niche markets and smaller geographic areas.

Like The Conference Board's long-running Help Wanted Advertising Index of print ads (which was published for over 55 years and discontinued in October 2008 but continues to be available for research), the new online series is not a direct measure of job vacancies.  The level of ads in print and online can change for reasons not related to overall job demand.

With the December 1, 2008 release, HWOL began providing seasonally adjusted data for the U.S., the nine Census regions and the 50 States. Seasonally adjusted data for occupations were provided beginning with the December 2009 release. This data series, for which the earliest data are for June 2005, continues to publish not seasonally adjusted data for 52 large metropolitan areas.

People using this data are urged to review the information on the database and methodology available on The Conference Board website and contact us with questions and comments.  Background information and technical notes and discussion of revisions to the series are available at: http://www.conference-board.org/data/helpwantedonline.cfm.

The underlying online job listings data for this series is provided by Wanted Technologies Corporation.  Additional information on the Bureau of Labor Statistics data used in this release can be found on the BLS website, www.bls.gov.

The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

WANTED Technologies Corporation.

WANTED is a leading supplier of real-time sales and business intelligence solutions for the media classified and recruitment industries. Using its proprietary On-Demand data mining, lead generation and CRM (Customer Relationship Management) integrated technologies, WANTED aggregates real-time data from thousands of online job sites, real estate and newspaper sites, as well as corporate websites on a daily basis. WANTED's data is used to optimize sales and to implement marketing strategies within the classified ad departments of major media organizations, as well as by staffing firms, advertising agencies and human resources specialists. For more information, please visit: http://www.wantedtech.com.

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