New-Vehicle Sales Remain Steady At 13.9 Million Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, According To Kelley Blue Book Analysts

Significant Sales Gains Expected for Honda, Toyota, with Increased Inventory Levels Compared to 2011

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Jun 26, 2012, 05:00 ET

IRVINE, Calif., June 26, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- New-vehicle sales are projected to hit 13.9 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in June 2012, slightly improved from the 13.8 million unit pace posted in May 2012, according to Kelley Blue Book, www.kbb.com, the leading provider of new car and used car information.

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Kelley Blue Book's prediction for June SAAR is well below the 14.5 million unit average pace for the first four months of the year. The daily selling rate will fall to 47,000 units per day, which is 8 percent below the four-year high in May and up 16 percent from June 2011. Despite the predicted decline for June, sales remain strong thanks to a steady flow of demand from consumers in need of a replacement vehicle. According to the Q1 Consumer Sentiment survey conducted by Kelley Blue Book's Market Intelligence team, the average new-car shopper owned an 8-year-old vehicle with 85,328 miles.

"It's a buyer's market right now, with consumers flocking to the Internet and dealerships upon news of low interest rates across the board, ample credit availability for subprime borrowers, attractive cash incentives on vehicles in every category, and compelling new redesigns and introductions," said Alec Gutierrez, senior market analyst of automotive insights for Kelley Blue Book. "Although sales are expected to decline from May's high, the expected drop is just part of the normal seasonal pattern."

Since 2007, the daily selling rate has dropped between 3 and 10 percent from May to June, putting the expected 8 percent decline well within the historical and seasonal range from the past five years. Looking at the rest of 2012, Kelley Blue Book believes SAAR will remain in the mid to high 13 million unit range through summer and then jump above 14 million in the fall, as 2013 models become available and incentive spending increases on 2012 model-year vehicles. Kelley Blue Book expects light-vehicle sales to top 14 million units in 2012; however, as we look ahead to 2013 and beyond, there are signs that the current global economic slowdown may curtail future growth, leading to a leveled sales pace in the next six to 12 months.

Kelley Blue Book: Mid-Size Cars Continue to Thrive
	Sales Volume			Market Share
Segment	Jun-12	Jun-11	YOY%	Jun-12	Jun-11	YOY
Mid-Size Car	238,750	165,565	44.2%	18.8%	15.7%	3.1%
Compact Car	168,900	160,774	5.1%	13.3%	15.3%	-2.0%
Compact Crossover	137,150	114,307	20.0%	10.8%	10.9%	-0.1%
Full-Size Pickup Truck	132,050	126,007	4.8%	10.4%	12.0%	-1.6%
Subcompact Car	69,850	50,184	39.2%	5.5%	4.8%	0.7%
Total	1,270,000*	1,053,405	20.6%	-	-	-
*Includes segments not shown

Toyota and Honda Continue to Lead Year-Over-Year Gains
Toyota and Honda sales are expected to improve 70 and 50 percent respectively year-over-year, primarily due to each brand's enhanced inventory from one year ago. Although raw sales numbers are well above figures from last year, Toyota and Honda have been able to gain market share on the strength of their latest redesigns. The 2012 Toyota Camry dominates sales in the red-hot mid-size category, while the redesigned Honda Civic and CR-V have been at the top of their respective segments during the past few months.

General Motors and Ford will continue to occupy the top two positions in the U.S. sales race with a nearly 7 percent year-over-year gain expected for each manufacturer. Sales by the top two domestic manufacturers have been aided by a higher fleet penetration relative to their Japanese counterparts. Approximately one-third of all new General Motors, Ford and Chrysler vehicles sold today are sold to fleet buyers, significantly above the 10 percent fleet penetration of Toyota and Nissan, not to mention the miniscule 2 percent fleet penetration from Honda. In terms of retail sales volume, General Motors has maintained the top position through the first five months of this year, followed by Toyota, Ford and Honda, respectively.

"Toyota has occupied the top position in monthly retail sales volume in the United States twice this year, and we expect it to continue to gun for the No. 1 position in the United States moving forward," said Gutierrez. "In addition, we expect to see a boost in Ford's retail sales volume in the months ahead, especially with the arrival of its redesigned 2013 Escape and Fusion. Each of these vehicles will be among the most fuel efficient in their respective classes, enticing consumers seeking to minimize fuel expenses."

Kelley Blue Book: Toyota and Honda Lead YOY Gains from Depressed 2011 Figures
	Sales Volume			Market Share
Manufacturer	Jun-12	Jun-11	YOY%	Jun-12	Jun-11	YOY
General Motors	231,150	215,335	7.3%	18.2%	20.4%	-2.2%
Ford Motor Company	196,050	193,415	1.4%	15.4%	18.4%	-2.9%
Toyota Motor Company	186,300	110,937	67.9%	14.7%	10.5%	4.1%
Chrysler Group	144,800	120,394	20.3%	11.4%	11.4%	0.0%
American Honda	124,500	83,892	48.4%	9.8%	8.0%	1.8%
Hyundai-Kia	114,300	104,253	9.6%	9.0%	9.9%	-0.9%
Nissan North America	86,350	71,940	20.0%	6.8%	6.8%	0.0%
Volkswagen	49,550	38,673	28.1%	3.9%	3.7%	0.2%
Total	1,270,000*	1,053,405	20.6%	-	-	-
*Includes brands not shown

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Founded in 1926, Kelley Blue Book, The Trusted Resource®, is the only vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the industry. Each week the company provides the most market-reflective values in the industry on its top-rated website www.kbb.com, including its famous Blue Book® Trade-In and Suggested Retail Values and Fair Purchase Price, which reports what others are paying for new cars this week. The company also provides vehicle pricing and values through various products and services available to car dealers, auto manufacturers, finance and insurance companies as well as governmental agencies. Kbb.com provides consumer pricing and information on cars for sale, minivans, pickup trucks, sedan, hybrids, electric cars, and SUVs. Kelley Blue Book's kbb.com ranked highest in its category for brand equity and was named Online Auto Shopping Brand of the Year by the 2012 Harris Poll EquiTrend® study. Kelley Blue Book Co. Inc. is a wholly owned subsidiary of AutoTrader.com.