New Poll: Majority of Voters Do Not Think a Woman Candidate Can Beat Trump

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Aug 15, 2019, 08:00 ET

NEW YORK, Aug. 15, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- The findings of a recent national survey conducted by All In Together, a nonprofit dedicated to advancing women's civic leadership, and GBAO, a Washington DC based strategic consulting and polling firm, reflects 1,000 registered voters' feelings towards the 2020 election and state of the country. The survey found that although many voters are confident in a Democrat's ability to beat Trump, the majority of both men and women are less confident if the nominee is a woman.

Voters Do Not Believe a Woman Candidate Can Beat Trump

Two-thirds (67%) of voters say Trump's 2016 election has made them more motivated to vote in 2020, with Democrats more likely (78%) to say so than Republicans (64%).

Those surveyed are confident that a Democratic candidate can beat Trump (53% Dem, 47% Trump), but when asked to predict the outcome "if the Democratic nominee is a woman," voters give Trump the edge (+9).

This difference largely comes from Democrats and independents. Democrats give a generic Democratic candidate a 69-point advantage in likelihood, but only a 48-point advantage if the nominee is a woman.

This is not to say voters don't themselves support women candidates. A clear majority (58%) say "the increase in female candidates has been a good thing for the country." It seems likely many doubters personally support women candidates but assume others think differently.

All In Together Co-Founder and CEO Lauren Leader said of the findings, "This poll illuminates the uphill battle women candidates face among voters who believe women running is important and positive yet don't believe they can win against Trump. The data makes it clear that the playing field for women presidential candidates is not level."

Active on Social Media but Not Other Kinds of Political Activism

Although the survey found that 75% of Democrats are now paying more attention to politics, compared to 53% of Republicans, there is a huge disconnect between being motivated politically post-2016, and actually taking action to support candidates or mobilize around issues.

Voters, especially women, say they use social media frequently as a source of information and to post about politics and political issues.

However, despite increased activism online, voters are not getting more involved in other kinds of political activism, with fewer than one-in-ten (8%) planning to participate more in politics beyond voting (contributing to a campaign, volunteering, etc.).

Lauren Leader explained, "The polls point to a mismatch in motivation and action. Democratic women are highly motivated to beat Trump in 2020, yet focus most of their energy on social media rather than committing to going out and working to help their preferred candidates win. Men are still more likely to donate to candidates or volunteer to help them win, and these are actions that make the most tangible difference in outcomes. Social media alone does not translate to political power in electoral politics. Mobilization is just as, if not more, important."

People Feel We're Divided

A clear majority (71%) surveyed believe that our country is "very politically divided," with just a handful thinking we're not. A much smaller percentage (36%) felt the country was divided prior to 2016, with women remembering less division than men (31% Women, 41% Men).

On the topic of division, there are only slight partisan divisions. Democrats are somewhat more likely than Republicans to feel we're divided now and are more pessimistic about the future. Republicans recall being divided more than do Democrats. Men are more pessimistic than women about past and future divisions, and it's a trend that transcends party lines.

Other Report Findings

Two-thirds say Trump's 2016 election has made them more motivated to vote in 2020, with Democrats more likely (78%) than Republicans (64%) to say so.
Democrats are more likely to label 2020 as the "most important election in my lifetime" (38%), while a plurality of independents and Republicans say it's "just as important as all the others" (44%, 40%, respectively).
Immigration ranked as the most important deciding issue for the 2020 election, followed by healthcare, and dysfunction in Washington.

About All In Together
All In Together (AIT) is a non-partisan women's political education non-profit that encourages, equips, educates, and empowers voting-age women to participate fully in America's civic and political life.

SOURCE All In Together