New Poll Identifies Key Swing Vote Group Among Female Voters - "Guardian Women"

Survey is part of the most comprehensive study to date of women voters in 2020 as they adapt to the pandemic.

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Jun 02, 2020, 10:00 ET

NEW YORK, June 2, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The findings of a recent national survey in a study conducted by All In Together, a nonprofit dedicated to advancing women's civic leadership, in partnership with Lake Research and Emerson College Polling, reflects 1,000 registered female voters' feelings toward the election amid the COVID-19 crisis. It is the most comprehensive study to date of women voters in 2020 as they adapt to the pandemic.

The 2020 election will be seen through the prism of the COVID-19 pandemic, the conflicts and crises that have erupted around the country, and the economic impact of the pandemic. The survey's results have helped identify a key group of swing voters among women: deemed "the Guardian Women" by All In Together, this group of women voters say that their top value is "security." The Guardian Women group is split in identification and in presidential vote, with 46% leaning toward Biden, 42% leaning toward Trump, and 12% undecided. In this group, 62% of respondents strongly agree that their political participation matters now more than ever to protect our country and families.

Lauren Leader, CEO of All In Together said of the findings, "Just as soccer moms once defined the critical swing voter, Guardian Women may define this election. These are women deeply committed to voting and see themselves as essential to protecting their families and communities with that vote. That said, they are split on who they will vote for. These women could decide the election in battleground states and beyond. It's critical that their issues and concerns be understood and addressed if either candidate hopes to win a solid majority."

Who are "the Guardian Women"?
Guardian Women tend to be over 50, white, non-college educated, married, and tend to have an annual household income above $50,000.

Guardian Women are stand out among the overall survey respondents in that they are older, slightly less Democratic and Independent, and more Republican or nonpartisan, less liberal and more moderate, more likely to not have a college degree, wealthier, whiter, and tend to be from the Northeast and Midwest and less so from the West.

Why Do We Call Them "Guardian Women"?
Guardian Women are very engaged to turnout in the election this November; 85% report they are almost certain to vote. In overwhelming numbers, they agree that their vote matters now more than ever to make sure the United States goes in the right direction (90% agree, 69% strongly agree).

Given their primary value of security, it is no surprise that they see a major role for themselves as protectors. Nearly universally, they agree that their political participation matters now more than ever to protect our country and families (88% agree, 62% strongly agree), and that they feel they have a very important role protecting their family and community (90% agree, 66% strongly agree).

Guardian Women also say that COVID-19 has increased a lot (26%) or some (15%) the amount of care they are providing for parents and other relatives – significantly higher compared to women overall (15% increased a lot, 15% some).

These attitudes toward political participation, voting, and protecting our country, as well as their families and communities are so strongly held that they operate as core values for Guardian Women.

How do "the Guardian Women" vote in elections?
Even though they split between the two parties, leaning slightly Democratic (41%) more than Republican (36%) with a substantial number of Independents and non-affiliated (23%), the Guardian Women are a true swing constituency. Looking back at their vote history over the past several election cycles, they report voting both Republican and Democratic and generally splitting their vote.

In 2012, they split their vote: Republican Mitt Romney (42%), Democrat Barack Obama (40%). In 2016, they split again: Democrat Hillary Clinton (43%), Republican Donald Trump (41%). In the 2018 midterms, they report voting for the Democratic House candidate (46%) by 8 points over the Republican House candidate (38%), but are still swing voters.

If the 2020 General Election were held today, Guardian Women would vote for Democrat Joe Biden (46%) over Republican Donald Trump (42%), with 12% who are undecided. While Biden has a narrow four-point lead among these women, the undecided Guardian Women lean to Trump by a very small margin. By comparison, women overall vote for Biden by 16 points – 53% to 37% and the undecided women lean solidly to Biden.

Guardian Women tend to be more favorable toward Joe Biden than Donald Trump. A majority (55%) are favorable toward Biden (19% very favorable), with 35% who feel unfavorable (28% very unfavorable). On the other hand, a majority (53%) of Guardian Women are unfavorable toward Donald Trump (39% very unfavorable), while 46% feel favorable toward the president (31% very favorable).

Guardian Women are splitting down the road and could go either way on election day and will be a battleground for each campaign.

About All In Together
All In Together (AIT) encourages, equips, educates, and empowers voting-age women to participate fully in America's civic and political life. AIT is the only non-partisan women's organization committed to delivering cross-sector, innovative solutions to advance the progress of women's political, civic and professional leadership in the United States.

SOURCE All In Together