KBB.com Analysts Increase Sales Forecast to 17.4 Million SAAR for 2015; Compact Utility Vehicles Strengthen at Double the Industry's Pace
IRVINE, Calif., Oct. 27, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- New-vehicle sales are expected to increase nearly 12 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.43 million units in October 2015, resulting in an estimated 17.9 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book www.kbb.com, the only vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry. At 1.43 million units, this will be the highest October sales volume since 2001.
"Coming off the strongest sales month in a decade in September, sales continue to roll along this month, with double-digit growth expected for the industry in October 2015," said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book. "Key economic indicators for auto sales are still strong, including jobless claims at a historic low as the national unemployment rate approaches 5 percent, fuel pricing nearing six-year lows and interest rates that remain near zero. This momentum has pushed Kelley Blue Book's forecast to 17.4 million for 2015, a 5.6 percent year-over-year improvement."
Key Highlights for Estimated October 2015 Sales Forecast:
F-Series Volume Pushing Ford to New Levels of Growth; Volkswagen Sales Remain Flat
This month, expect continued growth from Ford Motor Company, with a 16.6 percent increase in new-car sales. The new F-150 is pushing the overall F-Series volume to new levels of growth this year, while the refreshed Explorer also is driving solid growth for Ford.
"With most brands experiencing growth this month, Volkswagen Group should report fairly even sales totals in the wake of their diesel emissions issue," said Gutierrez. "Audi and Porsche will be driving the sales growth for the manufacturer, as the Volkswagen brand posts negative figures, largely due to the stop-sale of its diesel models, which previously made up nearly 20 percent of the brand's sales volume."
| Sales Volume 1 |
Market Share 2 |
|||||
| Manufacturer |
Oct-15 |
Oct-14 |
YOY % |
Oct-15 |
Oct-14 |
YOY % |
| General Motors (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) |
250,000 |
226,819 |
10.2% |
17.5% |
17.8% |
-0.3% |
| Ford Motor Company (Ford, Lincoln) |
219,000 |
187,897 |
16.6% |
15.3% |
14.7% |
0.6% |
| Toyota Motor Company (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) |
198,000 |
180,580 |
9.6% |
13.8% |
14.1% |
-0.3% |
| Fiat Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, FIAT, Jeep, RAM) |
191,000 |
170,480 |
12.0% |
13.4% |
13.3% |
0.0% |
| American Honda (Acura, Honda) |
135,000 |
121,172 |
11.4% |
9.4% |
9.5% |
0.0% |
| Nissan North America (Infiniti, Nissan) |
120,000 |
103,117 |
16.4% |
8.4% |
8.1% |
0.3% |
| Hyundai-Kia |
110,000 |
94,775 |
16.1% |
7.7% |
7.4% |
0.3% |
| Volkswagen Group (Audi, Volkswagen, Porsche) |
50,000 |
49,130 |
1.8% |
3.5% |
3.8% |
-0.3% |
| Total 3 |
1,430,000 |
1,277,821 |
11.9% |
- |
- |
- |
| 1 Historical data from OEM sales announcements |
||||||
| 2 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights |
||||||
| 3 Includes brands not shown |
||||||
Compact Utility Segment Strengthens at Double the Industry's Pace; Small, Mid-Size Cars Continue to Fall
For the third month in a row, compact utility vehicles will be the top segment with expected growth of nearly 40 percent. This segment has seen five new models enter the segment in the past year, which has resulted in more than 20,000 units sold per month. Still, the rest of the segment continues to strengthen at double the rest of the industry's pace.
With low fuel prices and exploding popularity of small utilities, small and mid-size cars will continue to lose market share in October. These are already two of the most competitive segments in the market, and year-to-date sales in both segments have declined. While Kelley Blue Book expects an increase in volume in October, due to strong overall sales momentum in the automotive industry, market share will drop by more than a full percentage point for these car segments.
| Sales Volume 1 |
Market Share |
|||||
| Segment |
Oct-15 |
Oct-14 |
YOY % |
Oct-15 |
Oct-14 |
YOY % |
| Compact SUV/Crossover |
215,000 |
155,569 |
38.2% |
15.0% |
12.2% |
2.9% |
| Full-Size Pickup Truck |
196,000 |
179,290 |
9.3% |
13.7% |
14.0% |
-0.3% |
| Mid-Size Car |
192,000 |
174,262 |
10.2% |
13.4% |
13.6% |
-0.2% |
| Compact Car |
180,000 |
173,905 |
3.5% |
12.6% |
13.6% |
-1.0% |
| Mid-Size SUV/Crossover |
168,000 |
141,209 |
19.0% |
11.7% |
11.1% |
0.7% |
| Total 2 |
1,430,000 |
1,277,821 |
11.9% |
- |
- |
- |
| 1 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights |
||||||
| 2 Includes segments not shown |
||||||
There are 28 sales days in October 2015, compared to 27 sales days in October 2014. All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.
To discuss this topic, or any other automotive-related information, with a Kelley Blue Book analyst on-camera via the company's on-site studio, please contact a member of the Public Relations team to book an interview.
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About Kelley Blue Book (www.kbb.com)
Founded in 1926, Kelley Blue Book, The Trusted Resource®, is the only vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry. Each week the company provides the most market-reflective values in the industry on its top-rated website KBB.com, including its famous Blue Book® Trade-In Values and Fair Purchase Price, which reports what others are paying for new and used cars this week. The company also provides vehicle pricing and values through various products and services available to car dealers, auto manufacturers, finance and insurance companies, and governmental agencies. Kelley Blue Book's KBB.com ranked highest in its category for brand equity by the 2015 Harris Poll EquiTrend® study and has been named Online Auto Shopping Brand of the Year for four consecutive years. Kelley Blue Book Co., Inc. is a Cox Automotive company.
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SOURCE Kelley Blue Book
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