VIENNA, Va., Sept. 10, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Middleburg Communities has published its latest research exploring trends in rental housing. The US economy has experienced a shock of historic proportions in the last six months. Concern over COVID-19 and the measures taken to limit its spread led to the loss of nearly 22 million jobs from February to May, more than 2.5 times the losses during the Great Recession. Some job losses were only temporary – 9.2 million jobs returned in June and July – but even as of the end of July, total employment was still down by 12.8 million compared to February. GDP dropped at an annualized pace of -32.9% in Q2 2020, the worst decline since the Great Depression.
Patrick Lynch, VP of Research at Middleburg Communities, has continued to analyze past and present housing data to track and forecast expectations on what the future might hold for the rental housing universe.
In this third report since the onset of the pandemic, Patrick examines performance of the rental apartment sector at a crucial moment.
- Thus far, apartments have lived up to their reputation as resilient assets despite a recession of historic proportions.
- Historical correlations between employment and GDP and rent growth indicate that significant distress could lie ahead but those correlations are irrelevant if the government makes up for lost income from employment, as it did with the CARES act.
- Therefore, the passage of new support for the unemployed remains an important factor for the future of the apartment industry, especially if the pace of recovery stalls.
- Under our base scenario, which assumes the eventual passage of new legislation that supports the unemployed, but in a reduced amount compared to the CARES act, the average rent would decline by a maximum of 4.0% before returning to pre-COVID levels in early 2022.
The full report, "The Path Ahead" by Patrick Lynch, is available by emailing him at [email protected].
About Middleburg Communities: Middleburg Communities is a fully integrated multifamily development, investment, construction and management company operating in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic United States. Since 2004, Middleburg has acquired and developed more than 20,000 apartment units, executing approximately $2.5 billion in transactions. The Middleburg team shares a vision for greater value creation through community impact. The firm's success is rooted in a genuine desire to serve its local communities in thoughtful and holistic ways. Middleburg embraces people, property, and partnerships to enhance the lives of others, contribute positively to its neighborhoods and maximize real returns for partners. For more information, please visit www.MiddleburgCommunities.com.
DISCLAIMER
Data presented from any and all sources are cited in the research report(s). Although every effort is made to ensure the accuracy, timeliness, and completeness of the information provided in this publication, the information is provided "AS IS" and Middleburg Communities does not guarantee, warrant, represent, or undertake that the information provided is correct, accurate, current, or complete.
This paper makes a number of predictions. These predictions of the future environment for the multifamily industry address matters that are uncertain and may turn out to be materially different than as expressed in this paper. The information provided in this paper is not a substitute for legal and other professional advice. If any reader requires legal advice or other professional assistance, each such reader should consult his or her own legal or other professional advisor and discuss the specific facts and circumstances that apply to the reader. Middleburg Communities is not liable for any loss, claim, or demand arising directly or indirectly from any use or reliance upon the information contained herein.
Media Contact:
Karen Widmayer
KW Communications, LLC
[email protected]
301.661.1448
SOURCE Middleburg Communities
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