Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Reveals U.S. Employers' Hiring Plans Remain Stable for the Fourth Quarter

Employers Report Slightly Elevated Optimism Compared to 12 Months Ago

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Sep 11, 2012, 03:30 ET

MILWAUKEE, Sept. 11, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Despite several challenging external factors, U.S. hiring decision makers intend to continue hiring at a steady pace, according to the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey released today by ManpowerGroup. According to the seasonally adjusted survey results, the Net Employment Outlook for Quarter 4 2012 is +11%, unchanged from Quarter 3 2012 and slightly elevated from +8% during the same period last year.

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This quarter's research concludes:

Strongest Fourth Quarter Outlook in Five Years: The Quarter 4 2012 Net Employment Outlook of +11% is the strongest fourth quarter data collected since 2007.
Three Years of Reserved Growth: According to seasonally adjusted data, hiring intentions have grown increasingly confident throughout the last three years with no declines in the Net Employment Outlook quarter-over-quarter. The continued climb in confidence marks three years of gradually improving hiring intentions, which were preceded by three quarters of pessimistic employment plans.
Regaining Strength: The Net Employment Outlook is slowly regaining strength as it builds toward the strongest Outlook of the past decade. Before hitting its weakest mark of -2% in Quarter 3 2009, the Outlook reached its strongest point of the last decade at +21% in Quarter 3 2006. At +11%, the Quarter 4 2012 Outlook is halfway between the two.
Positive Trend Continues Across U.S.: Hiring intentions continue to climb with employers in 49 out of 50 states reporting positive hiring intentions. Similarly, employers in 99 out of the 100 largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas report positive hiring intentions to close out the year.

"Despite tumultuous global economies, election uncertainty, record heat waves, healthcare reform and other challenges, employers indicate that steady but cautious hiring progress will continue through the end of the year," said Jonas Prising, ManpowerGroup president of the Americas. "Employers have shown remarkable consistency in their careful approach to staff growth. The data shows that companies are very cautious about adding staff, but still have the intention to increase their workforces into the fourth quarter."

Of the more than 18,000 employers surveyed, 17 percent anticipate an increase in staff levels in their Quarter 4 2012 hiring plans, while 9 percent expect a decrease in payrolls, resulting in a Net Employment Outlook of +8%. Once seasonal variations are removed from the data, the Net Employment Outlook becomes +11%. Seventy-two percent of employers expect no change in their hiring plans. The final 2 percent of employers indicate they are undecided about their hiring intentions.

"Once again, the data is showing stability and continued, moderate growth. In fact, Quarter 4 2012 is the strongest Quarter 4 Outlook since 2007," said Prising. "Even among the industries, steady progression is a trend. Education & Health Services, in particular, is stronger this quarter than it has been in the last three years."

Hiring Outlooks for Industry Sectors and Regions

For Quarter 4 2012, employers have a positive Outlook in all of the 13 industry sectors included in the survey: Wholesale & Retail Trade (+16%), Leisure & Hospitality (+15%), Professional & Business Services (+13%), Mining (+10%), Financial Activities (+10%), Information (+9%), Durable Goods Manufacturing (+8%), Education & Health Services (+8%), Other Services (+5%), Nondurable Goods Manufacturing (+4%), Transportation & Utilities (+4%), Government (+4%) and Construction (+1%). When the industry sector data is compared quarter-over-quarter, employers in the Education & Health Services sector anticipate a slight hiring increase. The hiring pace is expected to slightly decrease among employers in four industry sectors: Wholesale & Retail Trade, Information, Financial Activities and Government. Employers in the Mining, Durable Goods Manufacturing, Professional & Business Services and Other Services sectors anticipate a moderate decrease in the hiring pace, while employers in the Construction, Nondurable Goods Manufacturing, Transportation & Utilities and Leisure & Hospitality sectors expect the hiring pace to decline by considerable margins quarter-over-quarter.

A positive Net Employment Outlook is reported in all four U.S. regions. When seasonal variations are removed from the data, quarter-over-quarter plans to add employees remain essentially unchanged among employers in the Northeast, Midwest, South and West. Compared to one year ago at this time, employers in each of the regions project a slight increase in hiring for Quarter 4 2012. Employers in the South region report the strongest Outlook at +12%.

The next Manpower Employment Outlook Survey will be released on December 11 to report hiring expectations for the first quarter of 2013. To receive e-mail notification when the survey is available each quarter, visit http://press.manpower.com/signup.

*The Net Employment Outlook is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers expecting a decrease in hiring activity.

About the Survey

ManpowerGroup's quarterly Manpower Employment Outlook Survey measures employers' intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforce during the next quarter. It is the only forward-looking survey of its kind, unparalleled in size, scope, longevity and area of focus.

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using a validated methodology in accordance with the highest standards in market research. In the U.S., the survey is conducted by an independent, third-party research firm and includes a select sample of more than 18,000 U.S. employers. This sample represents the top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) based on business establishment count and all 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. The mix of industries within the survey follows the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) Supersectors and is structured to be representative of the U.S. economy. With this number of interviews, the overall U.S. survey carries a margin of error of +/-0.61%, with a 90% confidence index.

The complete results from the U.S. national Manpower Employment Outlook Survey are available for download at press.manpower.com, where you will also find the survey results for the 100 MSAs, 50 states, D.C. and Puerto Rico.

SOURCE ManpowerGroup