LMU and Beacon Economics' 'Forecast LA' Sees Stronger Economic Growth for 2015 and Beyond

Economists, city leaders, regular Angelenos optimistic local economy will grow more quickly than last year

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Apr 07, 2015, 07:06 ET

LOS ANGELES, April 7, 2015 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Experts and regular people alike are predicting 2015 will be a better year for the Los Angeles economy than 2014, according to this year's Forecast LA report.

The forecast is a partnership between the Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount University and Beacon Economics, LLC. Researchers at both organizations found evidence of growth at the Los Angeles, California, and national level.

"Angelenos were correct about the expanding economy last year, and they expect things to improve even more this year," said Fernando Guerra, director of the center and professor of political science and Chicana/o studies at LMU. "Respondents in our survey remain wary after the extended downturn, but overall they predict growth across the board."

Among the report's major findings:

The outlook for the Los Angeles County economy remains positive, with local employment projected to grow by 1.7% through the end of 2015 and unemployment expected to dip to 7.3%. Home prices will also continue to grow in Los Angeles over the near and long term: from 2016 through 2020, prices are expected to appreciate at an annual rate of 4%.
Housing remains an interesting issue. More survey respondents this year say people can afford homes, but they also predict further increases in the cost of buying a house. Beacon Economics forecasts single-family home prices to rise 2.6% through the end of 2015.
Employment growth in California is forecast to exceed 2.5% in 2015, with unemployment falling below 6% next year. But residents were split when asked about unemployment: 36 percent expect a decrease, 30 percent see an increase, and 34 percent see no change.
U.S. domestic demand is picking up steam, a trend that will push the nation's 2015 economic growth into the 3% range, and lead to even better numbers in the years following.

The economy does face challenges, mainly in the form of frothy financial markets and gridlocked politics. "But these aren't enough to diminish our relatively bullish near-term outlook," said Christopher Thornberg, founding partner of Beacon Economics and one of the forecast's lead authors. "Expect ongoing gains in the U.S. economy, for now."

The opinion poll is based on the results of a telephone survey administered in January 2015 to 2,400 Los Angeles County residents. Additionally, LMU students interviewed 57 of the county's 88 city managers (or their equivalent in cities with a different structure) to see how these leaders' opinions line up with those of residents.

The participating city managers, like the mayors whose opinions were surveyed in last year's Forecast, held a more positive view about the prospect for economic growth than residents. However, the responses of both leaders and residents reflect increasing optimism the closer one gets to home: neighborhoods will do better than the city, cities better than the region, the region better than the state, and so on.

"We found that Angelenos express a high level of optimism," said Brianne Gilbert, associate director of the Center. "The number of people who said they would recommend someone to move to their neighborhood, or that 'things are going in the right direction' indicates a level of confidence and commitment to the region that we think only exists in Los Angeles."

The full report will be released at a morning event at LMU on April 7, when researchers from Beacon Economics and the Center for the Study of Los Angeles will discuss their findings.

To arrange an interview with one of the authors of the report, please contact one of the representatives listed below. Preview copies of the forecast can be found in two parts here and here.

About Loyola Marymount University
Located between the Pacific Ocean and downtown Los Angeles, Loyola Marymount University is a comprehensive university offering 60 major programs, 36 master's degrees and a doctoral degree in education from four colleges, two schools and Loyola Law School. Founded in 1911, LMU is ranked third in "Best Regional Universities/West" by U.S. News & World Report. LMU is the largest Jesuit Catholic university for undergraduates on the West Coast with more than 5,900 undergraduate students and more than 3,000 graduate and law students. For more LMU news and events, please visit www.lmu.edu/news.

About Beacon Economics:
Beacon Economics is one of California's leading economic research and consulting firms, specializing in economic and revenue forecasting, economic impact analysis, and economic policy analysis. The firm's internationally recognized forecasters were among the first and most accurate predictors of the U.S. mortgage market meltdown that began in 2007 – and among a relative handful who correctly calculated the depth and breadth of the financial and economic crisis that followed. Clients range from the State of California to Fortune 500 companies to major cities and universities. Learn more at www.beaconecon.com

SOURCE Loyola Marymount University