Jobs Return to American Cities -- But Recovery Is Incomplete, Uneven

NEW YORK, July 31, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Municipal bankruptcy aside, Detroiters have reason for optimism: the Motor City job market has roared back and is now actually stronger than it was pre-recession. By contrast, Las Vegas remains mired in a painfully slow recovery.      

So reports The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL), a monthly data series tracking U.S. labor demand by geography and occupational category. Launched in 2005, HWOL measures the number of openings posted to online job boards for each locality. Combined with state and federal unemployment numbers, HWOL data allows The Conference Board researchers to calculate fine-grained labor supply/demand (S/D) ratios—that is, the number of unemployed jobseekers for each advertised vacancy in an area. Since the official end of the recession in June 2009, monthly HWOL data for the 52 largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) have offered a particularly illuminating picture of the fitful recovery and its differential effects across the United States.

Struggling Cities, Surging Cities: A Tale of Two Californias 
Based on The Conference Board HWOL data released this week and the latest available unemployment figures (May 2013), there are 2.39 unemployed workers nationwide for each online job opening. But several cities—including, notably, three in California—trail well behind:

• Riverside, CA: With a 6.09 S/D ratio—over six jobseekers for each advertised opening—Riverside remains the worst-hit of the 52 largest MSAs.
• Seven other metro areas still have over three unemployed for each job opening: Las Vegas, NV (3.79); Memphis, TN (3.51); Los Angeles, CA (3.34); Miami, FL (3.31); Sacramento, CA (3.25); Detroit, MI (3.09); and Chicago, IL (3.07).

Demonstrating the diversity of its huge economy, California is also the only state with multiple cities on the list of strongest labor markets for jobseekers:

• These include San Jose, CA (1.22); Seattle-Tacoma, WA (1.24); Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN (1.25); Oklahoma City, OK (1.30); San Francisco, CA (1.39); Boston, MA (1.40); and Austin, TX (1.48).
• Washington, D.C. has maintained a low and steady S/D ratio (currently 1.16) throughout the recession and recovery.
• New York, NY—the most populous metro area—at 2.57 jobseekers per opening stands slightly above the national average, comparable  to  other large MSAs Houston, TX (2.09); Atlanta, GA (2.52); and Philadelphia, PA (2.61).    

Back from the Brink, Far from Normalcy
All 52 major metro areas have recorded a fall in labor S/D ratio since the end of the recession in June 2009—when there were 5.2 unemployed workers nationwide for each vacancy.

• Detroit has seen the strongest turnaround: Though still among the nation's highest, at 3.09, there are now nearly nine (8.87) fewer unemployed workers per job opening than in June 2009, when the S/D ratio stood at 11.97.
• Other hard-hit cities that have seen large improvements include:
  Portland, OR:              2.03 S/D ratio in May 2013 (down from 7.25 in June 2009)
  Birmingham, AL:         1.95     (6.59 in June 2009)
  Miami, FL:                  3.31     (7.85 in June 2009)
  Riverside, CA:             6.09     (10.42 in June 2009)
  Phoenix, AZ:               2.11     (6.26 in June 2009)
  Louisville, KY:             2.59     (6.65 in June 2009)
  Sacramento, CA:        3.25      (7.30 in June 2009)
  Tucson, AZ                 2.34     (6.36 in June 2009)
• By contrast, the S/D ratio for Las Vegas, which stood at 5.35 in June 2009, has only fallen to 3.79 jobseekers per online job opening. Likewise, the S/D ratio in Chicago stands at 3.07, a relatively small decline from 5.56 jobseekers per opening in June 2009.

Despite major gains since 2009, only four MSAs boast more favorable labor markets for jobseekers in May 2013 than they had before the recession in May 2007, when  the S/D ratio stood at 1.58 nationwide.

• Detroit is again an outlier, reflecting long-term economic troubles that predated the national recession. In May 2007, the city had 4.17 jobseekers per vacancy—then the most in the nation—compared to 3.09 six years later (–1.08).
• Like Detroit, three MSAs in Ohio have also seen a resurgence in manufacturing help bring them close to pre-recession S/D levels:
  Cleveland, OH:                  1.76 in May 2013 (–0.32 from 2.08 in May 2007)
  Columbus, OH:                 1.54      (–0.01 from May 2007)
  Cincinnati, OH:                  2.31     (+0.05 from May 2007)
• Other MSAs with S/D ratios below or just above pre-recession levels include:
  Oklahoma City, OK:           1.30     (–0.58 from May 2007)
  Minneapolis-St.Paul, MN:   1.25     (+0.06 from May 2007)
  Honolulu, HI:                      1.51     (+0.22 from May 2007)
  Louisville, KY:                    2.59     (+0.22 from May 2007)                     
• At the opposite extreme, Riverside, CA has 3.64 more jobseekers per opening in May 2013 than May 2007. Other cities farthest from pre-recession levels are Las Vegas (+2.23), Miami (+1.98), Los Angeles (+1.87), Sacramento (+1.84), and Chicago (+1.53).

For more information on The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/helpwantedonline.cfm

About the Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org

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