In Two Party Race, November Elections Could Go Either Way

NEW YORK, Aug. 25 /PRNewswire/ -- During an election year, August recess for members of Congress is a time for them to reconnect with their constituents and get a little rest before they come back to D.C. for a flurry of activity for one month followed by one month of intense campaigning. This year, they need to do more reconnecting than resting, as just 15% of Americans rate the overall job Congress is doing as positive with 85% giving their job negative marks.  And, while Democrats may hold control of Congress, their partisans are not being more kind – three-quarters of Democrats (73%) give Congress negative ratings as do 89% of Independents and 95% of Republicans.

To view the multimedia assets associated with this release, please click: http://multivu.prnewswire.com/mnr/harrisinteractive/44728/

(Logo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20100825/MM54996 )

(Logo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20100825/MM54996 )

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,775 adults surveyed online between August 9 and 16, 2010 by Harris Interactive.

The November Elections

One of the stories of this election season so far has been Democratic disenchantment and Republican enthusiasm. Looking at two simple factors – voting interest and voting likelihood – shows this story continues as the summer ends. While over half of Americans (53%) say they are absolutely certain they will vote in the November elections, that numbers goes up to 63% for Republicans and only to 55% for Democrats. Interest shows a similar trend. Three in five Americans (60%) say they are interested in the House of Representatives election this year. Looking at it by party, seven in ten Republicans (71%) say they are interested versus 56% of Democrats.

Tea Party supporters are the most enthusiastic. Seven in ten of those who are Tea Party supporters (70%) and three-quarters of those who consider themselves a Tea Party member (77%) say they are absolutely certain to vote. They are also more likely to be interested in the election. Eight in ten Tea Party supporters (79%) and 88% of Tea Party members say they are interested in the House of Representative election this year.

This enthusiasm is showing itself in a tight race for the House. One-third of Americans say they would vote for the Democratic candidate (34%) and one-third say they would vote for the Republican candidate (33%) with over one-quarter still undecided (28%). Looking at just those who say they are absolutely or very certain to vote this November, the edge goes to the Republicans, as 39% say they will vote for them with 37% saying they will vote for the Democratic candidate. And, among those who are extremely or very interested in this year's election, the Grand Old Party could see a landslide as almost half of these people (47%) say they would vote Republican compared to 35% who would vote for the Democrat.

But, if there is a Tea Party candidate in the race, things look better for the Democrats. In a three way race, 34% of Americans would vote for the Democrat, 22% would vote for the Republican and 11% would vote for the Tea Party candidate with one-third (33%) undecided. When looking at interest and likelihood to vote, the edge remains with the Democrats in the three-way race. Among those absolutely or very certain to vote, 38% would vote Democrat, 25% Republican and 14% for the Tea Party candidate. Among those extremely or very interested to vote, 36% would vote Democrat, 29% would vote Republican and 19% would vote for the Tea Party candidate.

So What?

The 2010 midterm elections are entering the final phase. Once Labor Day is over, the fall election cycle is in full swing. So far this year, 6 incumbents have lost in primaries around the country. Other incumbents have survived close calls. The electorate is disgruntled, but what happens over the next nine weeks will help decide two important factors. First, who will actually turn out to vote on November 2nd? And, more importantly, who are they voting for?

TABLE 1

CONGRESS' OVERALL JOB RATING

"How would you rate the overall job Congress is doing?"

Base: All U.S. adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; * signifies less than 1%.

TABLE 2

CONGRESS' OVERALL JOB RATING – TREND

"How would you rate the overall job the Congress is doing?"

Base: All U.S. adults

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.  **Negative = only fair or poor.

Note: Prior to March, 2009, this question was asked by telephone.

TABLE 3

Voting Likelihood

"An election for the House of Representatives will be held on November 2nd.  How certain are you that you will vote?"

Base: All U.S. adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 4

ELECTION INTEREST

"How interested are you in the House of Representatives elections this year?"

Base: All U.S. adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 5

MIDTERM ELECTIONS – TWO-PARTY RACE

"If the election for the House of Representatives was being held today, would you vote for the Republican or the Democratic candidate?"

Base: All U.S. adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 5B

MIDTERM ELECTIONS – TWO-PARTY RACE – VOTING INTEREST AND INTENTION

"If the election for the House of Representatives was being held today, would you vote for the Republican or the Democratic candidate?"

Base: All U.S. adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 6

MIDTERM ELECTIONS – THREE-PARTY RACE

"If the election for the House of Representatives was being held today and all three were an option, who would you vote for?"

Base: All U.S. adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 6B

MIDTERM ELECTIONS – THREE-PARTY RACE – VOTING INTEREST AND INTENTION

"If the election for the House of Representatives was being held today and all three were an option, who would you vote for?"

Base: All U.S. adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 7

TEA PARTY FAMILIARITY

"How familiar are you with the Tea Party Movement?"

Base: All U.S. adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 8

TEA PARTY SUPPORT

"Do you support or oppose the Tea Party Movement?"

[Asked of all adults excluding those who are "not at all familiar" or "have never heard of" the Tea Party Movement]

Base: All U.S. adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 9

TEA PARTY MEMBER

"Would you describe yourself as a member of the Tea Party?"

[Asked of all adults excluding those who are "not at all familiar" or "have never heard of" the Tea Party Movement]

Base: All U.S. adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Methodology

This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between August 9 to 16, 2010 among 2,775 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.

J38557

Q1215, 1220, 1225, 1230, 1235, 1240, 1245, 1250

The Harris Poll® #100, August 25, 2010

By Regina A. Corso, Director, The Harris Poll, Harris Interactive

About Harris Interactive

Harris Interactive is one of the world's leading custom market research firms, leveraging research, technology, and business acumen to transform relevant insight into actionable foresight. Known widely for the Harris Poll and for pioneering innovative research methodologies, Harris offers expertise in a wide range of industries including healthcare, technology, public affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial services, insurance, media, retail, restaurant, and consumer package goods. Serving clients in over 215 countries and territories through our North American, European, and Asian offices and a network of independent market research firms, Harris specializes in delivering research solutions that help us – and our clients – stay ahead of what's next. For more information, please visit www.harrisinteractive.com.

SOURCE Harris Interactive

WANT YOUR COMPANY'S NEWS FEATURED ON PRNEWSWIRE.COM?

440k+
Newsrooms &
Influencers

9k+
Digital Media
Outlets

270k+
Journalists
Opted In

GET STARTED