HVAC, 3rd Edition

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HVAC, 3rd Edition
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The U.S. market for heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) manufacturing is recovering from a period of economic setback that started with the great U.S. recession of 2008. HVAC manufacturers had previously enjoyed a period of steady growth between 1997 to 2006 when equipment sales for heating systems and air conditioners increased 41% and 45%, respectively. But the economic downturn brought with it a stalled housing market, a stoppage of new home and commercial construction initiatives, and massive layoffs at factories that manufacture HVAC equipment. The year 2012 represents a pivotal point for HVAC companies that are seeking to capitalize on market opportunities domestic and abroad, as well as secure long-term contracts and borrow cash at low interest rates to fund capital investments. Meanwhile, the U.S. government continues to ignite the economic recovery by funding projects that invest in rebuilding the U.S. infrastructure.

In September, U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu announced awards totaling more than $76 million in funding from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act to support advanced energy-efficient building technology projects and the development of training programs for commercial building equipment technicians, building operators, and energy auditors. The 58 projects will help make the nation's buildings more energy efficient and cost-effective. They will also support programs to train workers to service and operate new and existing buildings, to develop and deploy best practices resulting in fewer greenhouse gas emissions, and to establish a green workforce with technical expertise to reduce energy costs for consumers. These projects are considered a major spark to ignite HVAC manufacturing and lead to renewed confidence that shipments will increase. Still, many HVAC manufacturers are greeting the end of 2012 with cautious optimism as they await the outcome of the U.S. Presidential election. SBI Energy, in its new report, HVAC 3rd Edition, finds that through 2015, HVAC manufacturing growth will remain relative flat across all categories until the next administration solidifies its economic recovery plans and begins to assertively back additional initiatives that require the latest energy-saving HVAC equipment.

This report examines the competitive and economic challenges facing U.S. manufacturers and consumers of HVAC equipment. The chapters discuss the key constituents affected by the downturn in HVAC manufacturing and profiles the leading manufacturers. We size the market based on historical data between 2002 to 2011 and forecast growth through 2022. Market sizing focuses on the various segments of U.S. HVAC manufacturing, including:

• Heat transfer equipment (excluding room and unitary air-conditioners)

• Room air-conditioners and dehumidifiers (excluding portable humidifiers)

• Warm air furnaces, including duct furnaces and humidifiers, and electric comfort heating

• Unitary air-conditioners, excluding air source heat pumps

• Air source heat pumps, excluding room air-conditioners

• Ground and ground water source heat pumps (single and split systems)

Chapter 1 Executive Summary

Zero-Energy Buildings are HVAC Growth Opportunity

Rebound of the U.S. Housing Market

Home Remodeling Will Add to Growth Contributed by Construction

U.S. HVAC Market Valued at $14.3B

Table 1.1: U.S. Market Value (in $ millions) of HVAC Equipment

Manufacturing, 2006, 2010, 2011 and 2012

Figure 1.1: HVAC Spending Per Capita in China, U.S. and Europe, 2012to 2023

Table 1.2: U.S. Shipment Value (in $ millions) of HVAC Manufacturing byType of Equipment, 2012, 2016 and 2017

Standards Affect the HVAC Industry

Air Quality, Comfort, Control, and Efficiency Drive HVAC Demand

Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) Market Offers Growing Opportunity

Control Systems Offer Additional HVAC Opportunity

Green Technology Driving the HVAC Market

IAQ Market Size

Table 1.3: U.S. Market Value (in $ millions) of Indoor Air Quality Products, 2012, 2017 and 2023

Sensor and Control Devices Provide Green Efficiencies

Table 1.4: U.S. Market Value (in $ millions) of Green HVAC Monitoring and Control Devices, 2012, 2017 and 2023

China Dominates Global HVAC Manufacturing

Table 1.5: Global Market Value (in $ millions) of HVAC Manufacturing by Region, 2012 to 2017

Energy savings in the European Union

Table 1.6: European Market Value (in $ millions) of HVAC Manufacturing by Country, 2012 to 2017

Unprecedented Increase in Cost of Raw Materials

Programmable Thermostats Bring Greater HVAC Control

Chapter 2 Introduction

Scope of the Report

Methodology

U.S. HVAC Market Today

Product Definition and Classification

Types of HVAC Systems

Figure 2.1: HVAC System Components

Types of Heating Systems

Green Technology Gaining Traction

The International HVAC Market Centers in China

The SEER Rating

Chapter 3 Market Trends

Table 3.1: U.S. Government Funded Projects Involving Advanced Building Control Strategies, Communications, and IT for Net-Zero Energy Buildings

Table 3.2: U.S. Government Funded Projects for Water Heating, Residential and Commercial Appliances and Misc. Electric Loads

Z

ero-Energy Buildings are HVAC Growth Opportunity

Figure 3.1: Residential and Commercial Energy Consumption (BTUs) in the U.S. 2006 to 2023

Table 3.3: 2015 Projected Buildings Energy End-Use Expenditure Splits

(in $ billions), by Fuel Type

The Recovery Act Aims to Increase Building Energy Efficiency (BEC) .. 37

Rebound of the U.S. Housing Market

Table 3.4: Air Conditioning Equipment by Type of Housing Unit, 2012 .. 39

Figure 3.2: Monthly Consumption of Steel (in $ millions) by Type of U.S. Construction Project, 2006 to 2012

Home Remodeling Will Add to Growth Contributed by Construction

Table 3.5: U.S. Home Remodeling Index (RMI) Trend, 2011 and 2012 . 42

Standards Affect the HVAC Industry

Measures Used to Achieve 13 SEER

Figure 3.3: Millions of U.S. Homes Using Central Air Conditioning, by Age of HVAC Equipment and Year of Home Construction

Figure 3.4: Share of Homes with Central and Room Air Conditioning by Decade

Air Quality, Comfort, Control, and Efficiency Drive HVAC Demand

Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) Market Offers Growing Opportunity

IAQ Standards: AINSI/ASHRAE Standards 62-200 and 55-2004

Control Systems Offer Additional HVAC Opportunity

Communication Improvements in HVAC Control

OBIX: Networking HVAC

Programmable Thermostats Bring Greater HVAC Control

Chapter 4 Market Size

Table 4.1: U.S. Market Value (in $ millions) of HVAC Equipment Manufacturing, 2006, 2010, 2011 and 2012

Table 4.2: U.S. Shipment Value (in $ millions) of HVAC Manufacturing by

Type of Equipment, 2006, 2010, 2011 and 2012

Table 4.3: U.S. Shipment Value (in total units) of HVAC Manufacturing by

Type of Equipment, 2006, 2010, 2011 and 2012

Table 4.4: Cost Per Unit of HVAC Equipment Manufacturing, 2006, 2010, 2011 and 2012

Figure 4.1: HVAC Spending Per Capita in China, U.S. and Europe, 2012 to 2023

Table 4.5: U.S. Shipment Value (in $ millions) of HVAC Manufacturing, by Equipment Category, 2006, 2010, 2011 and 2012

Table 4.6: U.S. Shipment Value (in Units) of HVAC Manufacturing, by Equipment Category, 2006, 2010, 2011 and 2012

Table 4.7: U.S. Market Value (in $ millions) of HVAC Equipment Manufacturing, 2012 to 2017

Table 4.8: U.S. Shipment Value (in $ millions) of HVAC Manufacturing by Type of Equipment, 2012, 2016 and 2017

Table 4.9: U.S. Shipment Value (in units) of HVAC Manufacturing by Type of Equipment, 2012, 2016 and 2017

Table 4.10: Cost Per Unit of HVAC Equipment Manufacturing, 2012, 2016 and 2017

Table 4.11: U.S. Shipment Value (in $ millions) of HVAC Manufacturing,by Equipment Category, 2012, 2016 and 2017

Table 4.12: U.S. Shipment Value (in units) of HVAC Manufacturing, by Equipment Category, 2012, 2016 and 2017

Green Technology Driving the HVAC Market

Table 4.13: Total 2012 Cost Comparison of Geothermal Heat Pumps and Oil-fired Furnace and Electric Air Conditioner

Table 4.14: U.S. Shipments of Geothermal Heat Pumps by Model Type, 1997 to 2023

IAQ Market Size

Table 4.15: U.S. Market Value (in $ millions) of Indoor Air Quality Products, 2012, 2017 and 2023

Sensor and Control Devices Provide Green Efficiencies

Table 4.16: U.S. Market Value (in $ millions) of Green HVAC Monitoring and Control Devices, 2012, 2017 and 2023

China Dominates Global HVAC Manufacturing

Table 4.17: Global Market Value (in $ millions) of HVAC Manufacturing by Region, 2012 to 2017

Table 4.18: Global Market Value (in $ millions) of HVAC Manufacturing by Region, 2018 to 2023

Table 4.19: Asian Market Value (in $ millions) of HVAC Manufacturing by Country, 2012 to 2017

Figure 4.2: Energy Efficiency Programs in Asia

Table 4.21: China Market Value (in $ millions) of HVAC Manufacturing by Type of Equipment, 2012 to 2017

Table 4.22: China Market Value (in $ millions) of HVAC Manufacturing by Type of Equipment, 2018 to 2023

Energy savings in the European Union

Table 4.23: European Market Value (in $ millions) of HVAC Manufacturing by Country, 2012 to 2017

Table 4.24: European Market Value (in $ millions) of HVAC Manufacturing by Country, 2018 to 2023

China Leads U.S. HVAC Import Market

Table 4.25: Value of U.S. Imports (in $ thousands) of HVAC Manufacturing, 2006, 2010, 2011 and 2012

Table 4.26: U.S. Import Value (in $ thousands) of Air Conditioners, Window or Wall Type, Self-Contained, Less than 2.93 KW per Hour,2006, 2010, 2011 and 2012

Table 4.27: U.S. Import Value (in $ thousands) of Air Conditioners,Window or Wall Type, Self-Contained, 4.98 KW-HR or Greater

Table 4.28: U.S. Imports (in $ thousands) of Air Conditioners, Window or Wall Type, Self-Contained, 2.93 KW-HR or Greater But Less than

4.98KW-HR, 2006, 2010, 2011 and 2012

Table 4.29: U.S. Imports (in $ thousands) of Air Conditioning Machines, Window or Wall Type, Not Self-Contained, NESOI, 2006, 2010, 2011 and 2012

Table 4.31: U.S. Imports (in $ thousands) of Air Humidifiers or Dehumidifiers, Not Incorporating a Refrigerating Unit, 2006, 2010,2011 and 2012

Table 4.32: Value of U.S. Exports (in $ thousands) of HVAC Manufacturing by Country, 2006, 2010, 2011 and 2012

Canada and Mexico Are Leading Export Nations

Table 4.33: U.S. Exports (in $ thousands) of Air Conditioners, Window or Wall Type, Self-Contained, Less than 2.93 kW-hr, 2006, 2010, 2011 and 2012

Table 4.34: U.S. Exports (in $ thousands) of Air Conditioners, Window or Wall Type, Self-Contained, 4.98 KW-HR or Greater, 2006, 2010, 2011 and 2012

Table 4.35: U.S. Exports of Air Conditioners, Window or Wall Type, Self-

Contained, 2.93 KW-HR or Greater but less than 4.98 KW-HR, 2006, 2010, 2011 and 2012

Table 4.36: U.S. Exports (in $ thousands) of Air Conditioners, Year-Round Units, 2006, 2010, 2011 and 2012

Table 4.37: U.S. Exports (in $ thousands) of Air Humidifiers or Dehumidifiers, 2006, 2010, 2011 and 2012

Rising Prices Heat Up HVAC Market

Table 4.38: U.S. Market Value (in $ millions) of HVAC Manufacturing,2018, 2022 and 2023

Table 4.39: U.S. Market Value (in $ millions) of HVAC Manufacturing by Type of Equipment, 2018, 2022 and 2023

Table 4.40: U.S. Market Value (in units) of HVAC Manufacturing by Equipment Category, 2018, 2022 and 2023

Unprecedented Increase in Cost of Raw Materials

Table 4.41: U.S. Market Value (in $ millions) of HVAC Manufacturing by Type of Equipment, 2018, 2022 and 2023

Figure 4.3: Producer Price Index for Parts, Accessories and Components of HVAC Equipment and Year-Over-Year Change, 2006 to 2023

Table 4.42: U.S. Market Value (in units) of HVAC Manufacturing by Type of Equipment, 2018, 2022 and 2023

Chapter 5 Manufacturer Profiles

Aaon

Figure 5.1: AAON Sales (in $ thousands) and Year-Over-Year Growth,2009 to 2012

Carrier

Figure 5.2: Carrier Sales (in $ millions) and Year-Over-Year Growth,2009-2012

Figure 5.3: United Technologies Corp.'s Portfolio of Carrier HVAC Products

Continental Materials Corp.

Daiken Group (Goodman Global)

Ingersoll-Rand (Trane)

Figure 5.4: Ingersoll Rand Sales (in $ billions) and Year-Over-Year Growth, 2009-2012

Johnson Controls

Figure 5.5: Johnson Controls Sales (in $ millions) and Year-Over-Year Growth, 2009-2012

Lennox International

Figure 5.6: Lennox International's Portfolio of Commercial HVACProducts

Figure 5.7: Lennox International Sales (in $ millions) and Year-Over-Year Growth, 2009-2012

Watsco

Chapter 6 Consumer Market

Air Conditioned Space Increases Since 1992

Figure 6.1: Average Energy Consumption (millions of Btus per housingunit) and Number of Housing Units (millions), 1980 to 2009

Residential Heating Options

Figure 6.2: Water Heating in U.S. Homes, by Housing Type

Figure 6.3: Main Space Heating Fuel Choice by Decades of Construction, Pre-1950 to 2009

Figure 6.4: Central Air Conditioning Equipment Use by U.S. Region

Decreased Construction Leads to Fewer HVAC Installations

Figure 6.5: Residential HVAC System Utilization (in thousand housing units)

Figure 6.6: Primary Electric Energy Breakdown of Residential Buildings . 130

Figure 6.7: U.S. Residential HVAC Retrofit Expenditures (in $ millions) in Owner-Occupied Properties, 2002 to 2012

Commercial HVAC Sector has Different Needs

Figure 6.8: Commercial Building Primary Energy Use Breakdown

Figure 6.9: Fuels Used by End Use in Large Hospitals

Employment Outlook for HVAC

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