Home Prices Rise for the Sixth Straight Month According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

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Nov 27, 2012, 10:20 ET

NEW YORK, Nov. 27, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Data through September 2012, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller[1] Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed that home prices continued to rise in the third quarter of 2012. The national composite was up 3.6% in the third quarter of 2012 versus the third quarter of 2011, and was up 2.2% versus the second quarter of 2012. In September 2012, the 10- and 20-City Composites showed annual returns of +2.1% and +3.0%. Average home prices in the 10- and 20-City Composites were each up by 0.3% in September versus August 2012. Seventeen of the 20 MSAs and both Composites posted better annual returns in September versus August 2012; Detroit and Washington D.C. recorded a slight deceleration in their annual rates, and New York saw no change.

The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 3.6% gain in the third quarter of 2012 over the third quarter of 2011. In September 2012, the 10- and 20-City Composites posted annual increases of 2.1% and 3.0%, respectively.

"Home prices rose in the third quarter, marking the sixth consecutive month of increasing prices," says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "In September's report all three headline composites and 17 of the 20 cities gained over their levels of a year ago. Month-over-month, 13 cities and both Composites posted positive monthly gains.

"The National Composite increased by 3.6% from the same quarter in 2011 and by 2.2% from the second quarter of 2012. The 10- and 20-City Composites have posted positive annual returns for four consecutive months with a +2.1% and +3.0% annual change in September, respectively. Month-over-month, both Composites have recorded increases for six consecutive months, with the most recent monthly gain being +0.3% for each Composite.

"We are entering the seasonally weak part of the year. The headline figures, which are not seasonally adjusted, showed five cities with lower prices in September versus only one in August; in the seasonally adjusted data the pattern was reversed: one city fell in September versus two in August. Despite the seasons, housing continues to improve.

"Phoenix continues to lead the recovery with a +20.4% annual growth rate. Atlanta has finally reversed 26 months of annual declines with a +0.1% annual rate as observed in September's housing data. At the other end of the spectrum, Chicago and New York were the only two cities to post annual declines of 1.5% and 2.3% respectively and were also down 0.6% and 0.1% month-over-month.

"Thirteen of the 20 cities recorded positive monthly returns; Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland and New York saw modest drops in home prices in September as compared to August; Tampa and Washington D.C. were flat. With six months of consistently rising home prices, it is safe to say that we are now in the midst of a recovery in the housing market."

As of the third quarter of 2012, average home prices across the United States are back at their mid-2003 levels. At the end of the third quarter of 2012, the National Index was up 2.2% over the second quarter of 2012 and 3.6% above the third quarter of 2011.

As of September 2012, average home prices across the United States for the 10-City and 20-City Composites are back to their autumn 2003 levels. Measured from their June/July 2006 peaks, the decline for both Composites is approximately 29% through September 2012. For both Composites, the September 2012 levels are approximately 9% above their recent lows seen in March 2012.

In September 2012, 13 MSAs and both Composites posted positive monthly gains. Home prices in Tampa and Washington DC saw no change from August to September. Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland and New York saw a slight drop in prices in September. Phoenix recorded the highest increase in annual rate, up 20.4% from its September 2011 level. Chicago and New York were the only two cities that fared worse year-over-year with respective annual rates of -1.5% and -2.3%.

Atlanta, Detroit and Las Vegas remain the only three cities with average home prices below their January 2000 levels. Detroit with a 79.82 print, is nearly 20% below its January 2000 level.

The table below summarizes the results for September 2012. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are revised for the 24 prior months, based on the receipt of additional source data. More than 25 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.standardandpoors.com.

[1] Case-Shiller^® and Case-Shiller Indexes^® are registered trademarks of Fiserv, Inc.

	2012 Q3	2012 Q3/2012 Q2	2012 Q2/2012 Q1
	Level	Change (%)	Change (%)	1-Year Change (%)
U.S. National Index	135.67	2.2%	7.1%	3.6%
	September 2012	September/August	August/July
Metropolitan Area	Level	Change (%)	Change (%)	1-Year Change (%)
Atlanta	96.06	0.3%	1.8%	0.1%
Boston	157.26	-0.6%	0.7%	1.9%
Charlotte	116.28	-0.3%	0.6%	3.5%
Chicago	116.69	-0.6%	0.7%	-1.5%
Cleveland	102.10	-0.9%	1.0%	1.4%
Dallas	121.57	0.2%	0.1%	4.4%
Denver	134.01	0.4%	0.5%	6.7%
Detroit	79.82	0.7%	2.1%	7.6%
Las Vegas	97.38	1.4%	1.6%	3.8%
Los Angeles	174.80	1.0%	1.3%	4.0%
Miami	150.24	0.1%	1.0%	7.4%
Minneapolis	126.02	1.1%	1.2%	8.8%
New York	166.10	-0.1%	0.6%	-2.3%
Phoenix	120.65	1.1%	1.8%	20.4%
Portland	141.10	0.2%	0.5%	3.7%
San Diego	160.09	1.4%	0.9%	4.1%
San Francisco	143.15	0.5%	0.5%	7.5%
Seattle	142.09	0.3%	-0.1%	4.8%
Tampa	134.90	0.0%	0.4%	5.9%
Washington	192.36	0.0%	0.5%	3.2%
Composite-10	158.93	0.3%	0.8%	2.1%
Composite-20	146.22	0.3%	0.8%	3.0%
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and Fiserv
Data through September 2012

Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.

A summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data can be found in the table below.

	2012 Q3/2012 Q2		2012 Q2/2012 Q1
	NSA	SA	NSA	SA
US National	2.2%	1.1%	7.1%	2.4%
	September/August Change (%)		August/July Change (%)
Metropolitan Area	NSA	SA	NSA	SA
Atlanta	0.3%	1.7%	1.8%	1.7%
Boston	-0.6%	0.1%	0.7%	0.5%
Charlotte	-0.3%	0.4%	0.6%	0.4%
Chicago	-0.6%	-0.7%	0.7%	-0.1%
Cleveland	-0.9%	0.6%	1.0%	0.3%
Dallas	0.2%	1.0%	0.1%	0.2%
Denver	0.4%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%
Detroit	0.7%	0.4%	2.1%	0.5%
Las Vegas	1.4%	1.1%	1.6%	0.8%
Los Angeles	1.0%	0.8%	1.3%	1.0%
Miami	0.1%	0.3%	1.0%	0.4%
Minneapolis	1.1%	1.0%	1.2%	0.4%
New York	-0.1%	0.3%	0.6%	0.0%
Phoenix	1.1%	1.3%	1.8%	1.4%
Portland	0.2%	0.7%	0.5%	0.4%
San Diego	1.4%	1.7%	0.9%	0.7%
San Francisco	0.5%	1.0%	0.5%	0.1%
Seattle	0.3%	0.5%	-0.1%	-0.2%
Tampa	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	0.2%
Washington	0.0%	0.1%	0.5%	0.0%
Composite-10	0.3%	0.3%	0.8%	0.3%
Composite-20	0.3%	0.4%	0.8%	0.4%
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and Fiserv
Data through September 2012

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S&P Dow Jones Indices has introduced a new blog called HousingViews.com. This interactive blog delivers real-time commentary and analysis from across the Standard & Poor's organization on a wide-range of topics impacting residential home prices, homebuilding and mortgage financing in the United States. Readers and viewers can visit the blog at www.housingviews.com, where feedback and commentary is certainly welcomed and encouraged.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are published on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am ET. They are constructed to accurately track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The S&P/Case-Shiller

National U.S. Home Price Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated quarterly. The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite of 10 Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 10 original metro area indices. The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite of 20 Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000; thus, for example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the subject market.

These indices are generated and published under agreements between S&P Dow Jones Indices and Fiserv, Inc. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are produced by Fiserv, Inc. In addition to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, Fiserv also offers home price index sets covering thousands of zip codes, counties, metro areas, and state markets. The indices, published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, represent just a small subset of the broader data available through Fiserv.

For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit www.spindices.com.

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