Emerging markets to more than double smart meter growth in 2013, $56bn market by 2022
WASHINGTON, Dec. 10, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- The number of smart meter deployments across 35 emerging market countries in 2013 will be more than double the number of deployments in 2012, according to Northeast Group's annual Emerging Markets Smart Grid: Outlook 2013 study. With growth continuing throughout the decade, these countries will represent a smart metering – or advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) – market of $56 billion by 2022. The total number of electricity meters in these countries will grow to 546 million by 2022, with 27% already targeted by regulators to be "smart." The new study analyzes the smart meter and smart grid potential of 35 countries from Central/Eastern Europe, Eurasia, Latin America, Middle East/North Africa, South Africa and Southeast Asia.
"These 35 emerging market countries were active in deploying smart meters and associated smart grid infrastructure in 2012, with over 1.3 million AMI meters deployed. This activity does not even include the mega-markets of China and India, which are not covered in this forecast," said Northeast Group. "A number of emerging market utilities have already announced large projects for 2013, fueling our expectations that the number of smart meter deployments will more than double next year."
In recent years, smart grid activity has largely been focused in North America, Western Europe, and East Asia, primarily due to higher electricity demand profiles in these regions. But smart grid infrastructure offers emerging markets a diverse array of benefits as well, including improving reliability, reducing non-technical losses, and incorporating renewable sources of energy. As smart grid financing models and regulatory frameworks have improved, emerging market countries are catching up with their more developed peers.
"Regulatory development was somewhat mixed in 2012, but positive on the whole," continued Northeast Group. "In particular, emerging market countries are cooperating with more developed countries to establish interoperability standards for smart meters, helping reduce a considerable amount of risk from these investments. This will facilitate the entry of leading international vendors into the market, many of whom already have local partners and are established in these countries. In fact, ten leading international vendors accounted for over 90% of deployments across the 35 countries in 2012."
"One negative sign was that some emerging market countries backed away from previously announced deployment targets, but these targets are not out of reach if smart meter prices decline and financing improves. Utilities and governments are learning important lessons from widespread pilot projects, which should lead to clearer smart meter regulations over the next few years," added Northeast Group.
All 35 countries analyzed in the study are projected to begin smart grid deployments in the coming decade. In fact, 14 of the 35 countries are well positioned to begin large-scale smart grid deployments within the next 1–3 years. These include Brazil, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Mexico, Poland, Qatar, Romania, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, and the United Arab Emirates. Some of these countries are already in the early stages of large-scale rollouts.
Smart metering – or AMI – deployments will be the first step of smart grid activity in most of these countries, creating significant markets for the various AMI components across the 35 countries. These components include meter hardware, communications, IT (meter data management and customer information systems), and professional services markets. Following AMI, there is strong potential for distribution automation, substation automation, wide area measurement and home energy management technologies, including distributed generation and electric vehicle supply equipment.
Northeast Group ranked the smart meter potential of each country based on the potential benefits, the regulatory framework in place, and the total market size. The study includes details on each of the 35 countries, including their industry structure, regulatory framework, business case indicators, existing smart grid activity and vendors. There are market forecasts for each of five regions covered, as well as a comparison of these forecasts to the China and India markets. Additionally, the study gives an overview of the leading smart meter hardware vendors in emerging markets, including market share data.
Emerging Markets Smart Grid: Outlook 2013 is 135 pages long and includes over 130 unique charts, tables and graphics. To order a copy of the study, please visit our website at: www.northeast-group.com or email Ben Gardner at: [email protected]
ABOUT: Northeast Group, LLC is a Washington, DC-based smart grid market intelligence firm. Our research is focused on the smart grid opportunity in emerging market countries.
Key questions addressed in this study:
- What smart grid activity took place in emerging markets in 2012 and what is expected for 2013?
- Which countries were most active in developing smart grid-related policies and which countries took a step back?
- Who were the leading international vendors in emerging markets in 2012? What is their market share in emerging markets? Who are the most important local vendors?
- Which of these 35 countries have the potential to reap the most direct benefits from smart meter deployments?
- How will regional bodies such as the EU, ASEAN, and GCC expedite deployments?
- What other smart grid projects such as distribution automation, substation automation and home energy management are also evolving?
| Table of Contents |
|
| i. Executive Summary |
1 |
| ii. Methodology |
6 |
| 1. Introduction |
9 |
| 2. Global overview |
13 |
| 2.1 Smart meter potential in emerging markets |
13 |
| 2.2 Deployments in 2012 |
17 |
| 2.3 Business case drivers |
22 |
| 2.3 Regulatory drivers |
25 |
| 3. Emerging markets smart meter market forecast |
32 |
| 3.1 Deployment assumptions |
32 |
| 3.2 Cost assumptions |
32 |
| 3.3 Comparison to China and India |
33 |
| 4. Vendor activity |
34 |
| 4.1 Leading meter hardware vendors |
34 |
| 4.2 Local and other metering vendors |
37 |
| 5. Regional and country summaries |
39 |
| 6. Central/Eastern Europe |
43 |
| 6.1 Bulgaria |
45 |
| 6.2 Czech Republic |
47 |
| 6.3 Estonia |
49 |
| 6.4 Hungary |
51 |
| 6.5 Latvia |
53 |
| 6.6 Lithuania |
55 |
| 6.7 Poland |
57 |
| 6.8 Romania |
59 |
| 6.9 Slovakia |
61 |
| 6.10 Slovenia |
63 |
| 7. Eurasia |
65 |
| 7.1 Russia |
67 |
| 7.2 Ukraine |
69 |
| 8. Latin America |
71 |
| 8.1 Argentina |
73 |
| 8.2 Brazil |
75 |
| 8.3 Chile |
77 |
| 8.4 Colombia |
79 |
| 8.5 Ecuador |
81 |
| 8.6 Mexico |
83 |
| 8.7 Peru |
85 |
| 9. Middle East/North Africa |
87 |
| 9.1 Bahrain |
89 |
| 9.2 Egypt |
91 |
| 9.3 Jordan |
93 |
| 9.4 Kuwait |
95 |
| 9.5 Oman |
97 |
| 9.6 Qatar |
99 |
| 9.7 Saudi Arabia |
101 |
| 9.8 United Arab Emirates |
103 |
| 10. Southeast Asia |
105 |
| 10.1 Indonesia |
107 |
| 10.2 Malaysia |
109 |
| 10.3 Philippines |
111 |
| 10.4 Singapore |
113 |
| 10.5 Thailand |
115 |
| 10.6 Vietnam |
117 |
| 11. Other regions |
119 |
| 11.1 South Africa |
121 |
| 11.2 Turkey |
123 |
| 12. Conclusion |
125 |
| 12.1 Next steps |
125 |
| 12.2 List of abbreviations and acronyms |
126 |
| List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables |
|
| Emerging markets smart grid: key takeaways |
4 |
| Emerging markets smart meter potential |
5 |
| Figure 1.1: Smart grid value chain |
9 |
| Figure 1.2: Smart grid model highlighting focus in emerging markets |
10 |
| Figure 2.1: Emerging markets covered in this study |
14 |
| Figure 2.2: Emerging markets smart meter potential |
16 |
| Figure 2.3: Emerging markets added to this report |
18 |
| Figure 2.4: Biggest positive movers in smart meter potential |
19 |
| Figure 2.5: Biggest negative movers in smart meter potential |
19 |
| Table 2.1: Biggest shifts in regulatory framework score |
20 |
| Table 2.2: Biggest shifts in potential benefit score |
20 |
| Figure 2.6: Notable smart meter activity in 2012 |
21 |
| Table 2.3: Major smart meter project announcements in emerging markets in 2012 |
22 |
| Box 2.1: Theft reduction business case – the example of Brazil |
23 |
| Figure 2.7: Aggregate cost savings due to theft reduction in Brazil |
23 |
| Figure 2.8: Average electricity prices by region |
24 |
| Figure 2.9: Annual electricity demand growth (2012 – 2020) |
24 |
| Figure 2.10: Global distribution losses |
24 |
| Figure 2.11: Annual manufacturing business losses due to power outages |
25 |
| Figure 2.12: Smart meter targets in emerging markets |
26 |
| Table 2.4: Smart meter funding mechanisms |
27 |
| Table 2.5: Smart meter interoperability standards in Europe |
28 |
| Table 2.13: Hungary's smart meter deployment plan |
28 |
| Table 2.6: Infrastructure spending in emerging markets (2010 – 2030) |
29 |
| Figure 2.14: CO2 emissions targets in emerging markets |
30 |
| Figure 2.15: Renewable energy incentives in emerging markets |
31 |
| Table 2.7: Types of electric vehicle incentives |
32 |
| Box 2.2: Smart grid outreach in Brazil |
33 |
| Figure 3.1: Cumulative smart meter deployments in emerging markets (2012 – 2022) |
34 |
| Figure 3.2: 35 emerging market countries compared with China and India |
35 |
| Figure 4.1: Market share of leading vendors in 35 emerging markets |
36 |
| Figure 4.2: Leading vendor market share (not including Brazil) |
37 |
| Table 4.1: Leading international smart meter hardware vendors |
38 |
| Table 4.2: Additional hardware vendors active in emerging market smart meter projects |
40 |
| Figure 6.1: Smart meter potential in Central/Eastern Europe |
43 |
| Figure 7.1: Smart meter potential in Eurasia |
65 |
| Figure 8.1: Smart meter potential in Latin America |
71 |
| Figure 9.1: Smart meter potential in Middle East/North Africa |
87 |
| Figure 10.1: Smart meter potential in Southeast Asia |
105 |
| Figure 11.1: Smart meter potential in medium-large countries |
119 |
| Table 12.1: The next steps and necessary actions |
125 |
In addition to the figures and tables shown above, each country summary includes the following:
Table: industry structure;
Table: regulatory framework;
Chart: regional electricity consumption per capita (kWh);
Chart: regional electricity prices (cents per kWh);
Chart: regional distribution losses (%).
Therefore, this study includes an additional 88 unique charts and tables in addition to those cited above.
List of companies mentioned in this study:
- ABB (Switzerland)
- Aclara (US)
- ADD (Moldova)
- Advanced Electronics Co. (Saudi Arabia)
- ADWEA (UAE)
- AES (US)
- Akwaror (Bulgaria)
- Alstom (France)
- Al-Wataniyah (Kuwait)
- Ampla (Brazil)
- Applied Meters (Slovakia)
- Bogazici (Turkey)
- BPL Global (US)
- BYD (China)
- CAS (Brazil)
- Cason (Hungary)
- Cemig (Brazil)
- CEZ (Czech Republic)
- CFE (Mexico)
- Chilectra (Chile)
- Chilquinta (Chile)
- Cisco (US)
- Citipower (South Africa)
- CGE (Chile)
- CNEL (Ecuador)
- Codensa (Colombia)
- Comintel (Malaysia)
- Copel (Brazil)
- CPFL (Brazil)
- Current Technology (US)
- Davao Light (Philippines)
- DEWA (UAE)
- DTEK (Ukraine)
- Echelon (US)
- Ecil Informatica (Brazil)
- EDCO (Jordan)
- Edelap (Argentina)
- Edelsur (Peru)
- Edenor (Argentina)
- Edesur (Argentina)
- EDF (France)
- EEHC (Egypt)
- Eesti Energia (Estonia)
- EHC (Oman)
- Electrica (Romania)
- Electrica de Guayaquil (Ecuador)
- Electro Sur (Peru)
- Elektro (Slovenia)
- Elektromed (Turkey)
- Eletropaulo (Brazil)
- ELO (Brazil)
- Elster (Germany)
- EMH (Germany)
- Empresas Electricas (Ecuador)
- Endesa (Spain)
- ENEA (Poland)
- ENEL (Italy)
- Energa (Poland)
- Enerjisa Baskent (Turkey)
- Eneri (Mexico)
- Enersis (Chile)
- Enica (UK)
- E.On (Germany)
- EPM (Colombia)
- Eskom (South Africa)
- EVN (Austria)
- EVN (Vietnam)
- EWA (Bahrain)
- Federal Grid Company (Russia)
- FEWA (UAE)
- GE (US)
- HP (US)
- Iberdrola (Spain)
- IDECO (Jordan)
- IDGC (Russia)
- IES (Russia)
- Intel (US)
- Inter RAO UES (Russia)
- Iskraemeco (Slovenia)
- Itron (US)
- JEPCO (Jordan)
- Kahramma (Qatar)
- Kamstrup (Denmark)
- Landis+Gyr (Switzerland)
- Larsen &Toubros (India)
- Latvenergo (Latvia)
- Lesto (Lithuania)
- Light (Brazil)
- Luz del Sur (Peru)
- MEA (Thailand)
- MEDC (Oman)
- MERALCO (Philippines)
- Mobiltel (Bulgaria)
- Nansen (Brazil)
- PCN (US)
- PEA (Thailand)
- Petra Solar (Jordan)
- Petrofac (UK)
- PGE (Poland)
- PLN (Indonesia)
- Power Meter Technics (South Africa)
- PRE (Czech Republic)
- PrimeStone (Colombia)
- Rede Energia (Brazil)
- Renault (France)
- RWE (Germany)
- SAESA (Chile)
- SEB (Malaysia)
- SEC (Saudi Arabia)
- Sempra Energy (US)
- Sensus (US)
- SESB (Malaysia)
- SEWA (UAE)
- Siemens (Germany)
- Silver Spring Networks (US)
- Sigma Telas (Lithuania)
- Singapore Power (Singapore)
- SK Engineering (South Korea)
- SSE (Slovakia)
- ST Electronics (Singapore)
- Tauron (Poland)
- Technology Partners (UAE)
- TEDAS (Turkey)
- Telvent (Spain)
- TNB (Malaysia)
- Toroslar (Turkey)
- Toshiba (Japan)
- Trilliant (US)
- Trina Solar (China)
- Tropos Networks (US)
- Vattenfall (Sweden)
- VECO (Philippines)
- Ventyx (Australia)
- VKG (Estonia)
- VSE (Slovakia)
- ZSE (Slovakia)
SOURCE Northeast Group, LLC
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