Economic Gloom Still Pervasive
President Obama's lowest rating yet on economy
NEW YORK, Oct. 26, /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- The latest Harris Poll on the economy finds that public gloom is still pervasive and that President Obama's rating on the economy has fallen to its lowest level yet. The new data contains nothing but bad news for the Democrats as we approach the November 2nd elections.
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The President's rating on the economy is now 73% negative, compared to 71% in September, 68% in August and 64% in May. Only 30% of the public expects that the economy will improve in the next year, and only 22% believe that their own household's finances will be better in six months time.
These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 3,084 adults surveyed online between October 11 and 18, 2010 by Harris Interactive.
Other interesting findings include:
- In addition to the large majorities of Republicans (92%) and Independents (78%) who give the President negative ratings on the economy, fully 51% of Democrats do so, as well;
- At least seven in ten of all generations give the President negative ratings on the economy, including 70% of people aged 65 and over, the generation that usually has the highest turnout in mid-term elections. Almost three-quarters (72%) of Echo Boomers (those aged 18-34) also give the President negative ratings (and these were some of his strongest supporters during his presidential campaign);
- While most people have very negative views on the economy, only 30% think it will get worse -- the same number as think it will get better --in the next year. Two in five Americans (40%) believe that the economy will stay the same in the coming year;
- Few people accept the official view that, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the recession ended in June 2009. Indeed, only 6% of all adults believe that the recession is over. A slender majority (54%) believes that the "recovery has started but the recession is not over" and 33% believe that the "recovery has not started."
So What?
These poll results show that the public is as pessimistic, or more pessimistic, than ever about the economy, strengthening the belief that that the Democrats will suffer very badly in the elections. The concern for the White House may be in looking past this November towards November of 2012 and what that may portend for President Obama's re-election.
TABLE 1 PRESIDENT OBAMA'S JOB RATING ON THE ECONOMY - TREND |
|||||||||
"Now, turning to something different, how would you rate the overall job that President Barack Obama is doing on the economy?" Base: All adults |
|||||||||
2009 |
|||||||||
March |
April |
May |
June |
Aug |
Sept |
Nov |
Dec |
||
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
POSITIVE (NET) |
47 |
49 |
46 |
43 |
39 |
40 |
34 |
36 |
|
Excellent |
13 |
13 |
10 |
3 |
9 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
|
Pretty good |
34 |
36 |
36 |
34 |
31 |
33 |
27 |
30 |
|
NEGATIVE (NET) |
53 |
51 |
54 |
57 |
61 |
60 |
66 |
64 |
|
Only fair |
30 |
27 |
30 |
27 |
25 |
27 |
30 |
30 |
|
Poor |
23 |
24 |
24 |
30 |
36 |
33 |
37 |
34 |
|
2010 |
|||||||||
Jan |
March |
April |
May |
June |
Aug |
Sept |
Oct |
||
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
POSITIVE (NET) |
31 |
32 |
33 |
36 |
32 |
32 |
29 |
27 |
|
Excellent |
5 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
6 |
5 |
5 |
|
Pretty good |
25 |
27 |
27 |
30 |
27 |
26 |
24 |
22 |
|
NEGATIVE (NET) |
69 |
68 |
67 |
64 |
68 |
68 |
71 |
73 |
|
Only fair |
31 |
30 |
31 |
29 |
32 |
29 |
31 |
33 |
|
Poor |
39 |
37 |
36 |
34 |
37 |
39 |
40 |
39 |
|
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding. |
|||||||||
TABLE 2 PRESIDENT OBAMA'S JOB RATING ON THE ECONOMY – BY GENERATION AND POLITICAL PARTY "Now, turning to something different, how would you rate the overall job that President Barack Obama is doing on the economy?" Base: All adults |
|||||||||
Total |
Generation |
Political Party |
|||||||
Echo Boomers (18-33) |
Gen X (34-45) |
Baby Boomers (46-64) |
Matures (65+) |
Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
|||
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
POSITIVE (NET) |
27 |
28 |
25 |
28 |
30 |
8 |
49 |
22 |
|
Excellent |
5 |
5 |
5 |
3 |
7 |
3 |
9 |
2 |
|
Pretty good |
22 |
23 |
19 |
24 |
23 |
5 |
40 |
20 |
|
NEGATIVE (NET) |
73 |
72 |
75 |
72 |
70 |
92 |
51 |
78 |
|
Only fair |
33 |
39 |
39 |
31 |
22 |
21 |
39 |
34 |
|
Poor |
39 |
33 |
36 |
42 |
48 |
70 |
12 |
44 |
|
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding. |
|||||||||
TABLE 3 EXPECTATIONS FOR THE ECONOMY IN THE COMING YEAR - TREND "In the coming year, do you expect the economy to…?" Base: All adults |
|||||||||||
2009 |
2010 |
||||||||||
April |
May |
Aug |
Sept |
Oct |
May |
June |
Aug |
Sept |
Oct |
||
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
Improve |
39 |
38 |
46 |
40 |
34 |
38 |
30 |
29 |
28 |
30 |
|
Stay the same |
35 |
35 |
32 |
36 |
37 |
34 |
42 |
39 |
40 |
40 |
|
Get worse |
26 |
27 |
22 |
24 |
29 |
28 |
28 |
32 |
32 |
30 |
|
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding |
|||||||||||
TABLE 4 PERSONAL FINANCIAL EXPECTATIONS FOR THE NEXT 6 MONTHS - TREND "Thinking about your household's financial condition, do you expect it to be better or worse in the next 6 months?" Base: All adults |
|||||||||||||||
2008 |
2009 |
||||||||||||||
Feb |
Mar |
June |
Nov |
Jan |
Mar |
April |
May |
June |
Aug |
Sept |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
||
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
BETTER (NET) |
39 |
33 |
40 |
24 |
20 |
20 |
23 |
25 |
21 |
24 |
23 |
23 |
18 |
19 |
|
Will remain the same |
28 |
28 |
25 |
43 |
48 |
46 |
46 |
45 |
45 |
48 |
48 |
45 |
47 |
48 |
|
WORSE (NET) |
34 |
39 |
36 |
33 |
32 |
35 |
31 |
30 |
33 |
28 |
29 |
31 |
35 |
33 |
|
2010 |
|||||||||
Jan |
Mar |
April |
May |
June |
Aug |
Sept |
Oct |
||
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
BETTER (NET) |
21 |
21 |
22 |
25 |
21 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
|
Will remain the same |
49 |
47 |
50 |
47 |
52 |
52 |
50 |
49 |
|
WORSE (NET) |
30 |
32 |
29 |
28 |
27 |
26 |
28 |
29 |
|
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding. |
|||||||||
TABLE 5 PERSONAL FINANCIAL EXPECTATIONS FOR THE NEXT 6 MONTHS – BY GENERATION AND POLITICAL PARTY "Thinking about your household's financial condition, do you expect it to be better or worse in the next 6 months?" Base: All adults |
|||||||||
Total |
Generation |
Political Party |
|||||||
Echo Boomers (18-33) |
Gen X (34-45) |
Baby Boomers (46-64) |
Matures (65+) |
Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
|||
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
BETTER (NET) |
22 |
29 |
26 |
22 |
9 |
18 |
29 |
21 |
|
Will be much better |
4 |
5 |
8 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
5 |
3 |
|
Will be somewhat better |
18 |
24 |
18 |
19 |
8 |
13 |
23 |
18 |
|
Will remain the same |
49 |
54 |
45 |
47 |
52 |
48 |
51 |
47 |
|
WORSE (NET) |
29 |
18 |
30 |
32 |
39 |
34 |
20 |
32 |
|
Will be somewhat worse |
22 |
14 |
20 |
25 |
31 |
27 |
15 |
25 |
|
Will be much worse |
7 |
4 |
10 |
7 |
8 |
7 |
5 |
7 |
|
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding. |
|||||||||
TABLE 6 RECESSION FEELINGS "Do you think we are still in a recession, or do you think the recession is over and the recovery has started?" Base: All adults (Random half of sample) |
|||||||||
Total |
Political Party |
Region |
|||||||
Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
East |
Midwest |
South |
West |
|||
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
Recession is over |
6 |
5 |
7 |
5 |
7 |
3 |
4 |
10 |
|
Recovery has started but recession is not over |
54 |
43 |
66 |
50 |
56 |
58 |
50 |
53 |
|
Recovery has not started |
33 |
44 |
22 |
36 |
31 |
33 |
35 |
31 |
|
Not at all sure |
8 |
8 |
5 |
9 |
7 |
6 |
11 |
6 |
|
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding. |
|||||||||
TABLE 7 RECESSION IS OVER OPINIONS "The National Bureau of Economic Research, the organization that names the official start and end dates for economic trends, stated recently that the economic recession in the United States ended officially in June 2009, and the recovery began. How much do you agree or disagree with that statement?" Base: All adults (Random half of sample) |
|||||||||
Total |
Political Party |
Generation |
|||||||
Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Echo Boomers (18-33) |
Gen X (34-45) |
Baby Boomers (46-64) |
Matures (65+) |
|||
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
Agree (NET) |
30 |
18 |
42 |
29 |
35 |
36 |
24 |
29 |
|
Strongly agree |
6 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
7 |
3 |
5 |
|
Somewhat agree |
24 |
12 |
36 |
22 |
27 |
29 |
20 |
23 |
|
Disagree (NET) |
64 |
80 |
52 |
66 |
53 |
60 |
71 |
70 |
|
Somewhat disagree |
28 |
32 |
31 |
22 |
29 |
30 |
28 |
24 |
|
Strongly disagree |
36 |
48 |
21 |
44 |
25 |
30 |
43 |
46 |
|
Not at all sure |
6 |
2 |
6 |
5 |
11 |
4 |
5 |
2 |
|
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding |
|||||||||
Methodology
This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between October 11 to 18, 2010 among 3,084 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.
All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.
Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.
J38848
Q705, 710, 715, 737, 738
The Harris Poll® #128, October 26, 2010
By Humphrey Taylor, Chairman, The Harris Poll
About Harris Interactive
Harris Interactive is one of the world's leading custom market research firms, leveraging research, technology, and business acumen to transform relevant insight into actionable foresight. Known widely for the Harris Poll and for pioneering innovative research methodologies, Harris offers expertise in a wide range of industries including healthcare, technology, public affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial services, insurance, media, retail, restaurant, and consumer package goods. Serving clients in over 215 countries and territories through our North American, European, and Asian offices and a network of independent market research firms, Harris specializes in delivering research solutions that help us – and our clients – stay ahead of what's next. For more information, please visit www.harrisinteractive.com.
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SOURCE Harris Interactive
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