DRG Forecasts Total US Personal Devices Unit Shipments to Snap Back to Pre-COVID levels in 2022

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Aug 31, 2021, 08:37 ET

BELMONT, Mass., Aug. 31, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Daniel Research Group, a market research firm specializing in forecasting technology markets announces the availability of its updated U.S. Personal Devices 2020-2025 Forecast Report. The report is available on DRG's website, www.DanielResearchGroup.com.

Market Overview

Total United States Unit Shipments of PCs, Tablets and Mobile Phones

5G Percent of Smartphone Units Shipments, Revenue, and Installed Base

DRG current forecast model projects that Unit Shipments for Consumer and Enterprise Personal Computing and Communication Devices will remain stable for the remainder of 2021, followed by a significant decrease in 2022 as demand Snaps Back to pre-COVID-19 levels and trends. The sharp and sudden demand drop will be stronger in the Enterprise Segment than in the Consumer Segment and impact computing devices more than communication devices.

However, there is some possibility that the Snap Back may occur as early as 21Q3 or 21Q4 as demand may be further be eroded due to:

The current increase in COVID-19 Delta variant cases inhibiting the rate of economic recovery
The end of unemployment benefits and eviction moratoriums decreasing consumer discretionary spending
Continuing Supply Chain disruptions diminishing supply at affordable prices.

United States Total Personal Device Unit Shipments (M)
		2020	2021	*AGR*	2025	*CAGR '21-'25*
Desktop PCs
	Desktop PCs	15.1	15.3	1.3%	12.8	-4.4%
Mobile PCs
	Traditional	62.5	75.3	20.5%	46.7	-11.3%
	Convertible	8.8	13.4	51.9%	8.3	-11.3%
Total Mobile PCs		71.3	88.7	24.4%	54.9	-11.3%

Total PCs		86.3	103.9	20.4%	67.7	-10.2%
Tablets
	Detachable	23.9	25.5	6.9%	16.6	-10.2%
	Slate	28.2	33.2	17.8%	13.0	-20.8%
Total Tablets		52.0	58.7	12.8%	29.6	-15.7%

Total PCs and Tablets		138.4	162.6	17.5%	97.3	-12.0%
Mobile Phones
	Standard Phones	5.7	5.3	-6.9%	0.7	-39.1%
	Smartphones	136.9	147.5	7.7%	130.5	-3.0%
Total Mobile Phones		142.6	152.8	7.1%	131.2	-3.7%
Total
Total Personal Devices		281.0	315.4	12.2%	228.5	-7.7%
∞∫∆ Daniel Research Group © (2021)

While COVID-19 and our response to it impacted almost all aspects of our lives, DRG has identified three specific changes that directly influence the demand for Personal Devices.

Major Changes to the Business Economic Demographic Structure of the US Economy

Employment Redistribution - The most imported change in the Business Economic Demographic structure of the US economy is loss of hundreds of thousands of small businesses and the eventual, but slow, reemployment of most of these workers by the remaining medium and large business. DRG estimates that the United States economy lost over 425,000 businesses in 2020. Over 87 million PCs and Tablets were owned by the Businesses that closed in 2020 and 2021 and are now removed from the installed base.

However, there is growing evidence that the decline in small business may be mitigated by a significant increase in new business start-ups as many unemployed workers see an opportunity to build their own business rather than return to work as an employee. However, DRG does not expect to see the impact of this emerging trends until 2022 or later.

Work From Home - Driven by personal health preservation decisions, as well voluntary and mandatory shutdowns, the number of employees working from home increased from 22 million at the end of 2019, to a peak of 45 million in March 2020. Our forecast model projects the number of people working from home will reach 33 million by December 2025.

Changing Consumer Life Management Processes and Behaviors - DRG estimates that an additional 70 million PCs and Tablets were purchased by consumers to support both Work From Home and other COVID-19 related changes to Life Management Process and Behaviors including virtual education, entertainment, personal communications, and shopping.

DRG's Current Business Economic Demographic Forecast may be downloaded from the DRG Website.

5G - The major factor influencing the future Mobile Phone market is the adoption rate of 5G enabled phones. DRGs current 5G forecast presented below is based on an analysis of historical 3G and 4G adoption rates, as well as the impact of Covid-19 on Consumer and Enterprise buying behaviors. From initial introduction, 3G took 12.3 quarters to grow from 10% to 90% of total Smartphone Unit Shipments, crossing 50% in the 14^th quarter. 4G took 15.8 quarters to grow from 10% to 90% of total Smartphone Unit Shipments to 90%, crossing 50% in the 13^th quarter. Our assumption is that it will take 5G 9.3 quarters to grow from 10% to 90% of Total Smartphone Unit Shipments, crossing 50% in the 9^th quarter, 21Q3.

About Daniel Research Group

DRG is a market research and consulting firm servicing technology clients. Its primary focus is developing custom market models and forecasts utilizing proprietary methodologies and algorithms developed over more than 30 years. The forecasts in this report were developed using DRG's EquilibriumSolver (EQS) methodology and application. To learn more about EQS, click on these links – Fact Sheet: White Paper:

Contact:
Steve Daniel, President
Daniel Research Group
(617) 484 – 6225
[email protected]
www.DanielResearchGroup.com

SOURCE Daniel Research Group