DRG Forecasts Total US Personal Devices Unit Shipments to Return to Pre-COVID levels in 2022

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Mar 03, 2022, 08:32 ET

BELMONT, Mass. , March 3, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Daniel Research Group, a market research firm specializing in forecasting technology markets announces the availability of its updated U.S. Personal Devices 2022-2026 Forecast Report. The report is available on DRG's website, www.DanielResearchGroup.com.

Market Overview

US PC, Tablet and Mobile Phone Unit Shipment Forecast

US PC, Tablet, and Mobile Phone Unit Shipments and Units Retried

DRG current forecast model projects that Unit Shipments for Consumer and Enterprise Personal Computing and Communication Devices will return to the per pandemic trend of slowly declining year to year Unit Shipments.

United States Total Personal Device Unit Shipments (M)
		2021	2022	*AGR*	2026	*CAGR '22-'26*
Desktop PCs
	Desktop PCs	16.0	15.9	-0.6%	14.3	-2.6%
Mobile PCs
	Traditional	65.6	64.2	-2.0%	54.5	-4.0%
	Convertible	11.7	11.0	-6.0%	8.0	-7.7%
Total Mobile PCs		77.2	75.2	-2.6%	62.5	-4.5%

Total PCs		93.2	91.1	-2.3%	76.8	-4.2%
Tablets
	Detachable	23.9	24.3	1.7%	24.0	-0.3%
	Slate	27.8	27.4	-1.2%	24.2	-3.1%
Total Tablets		51.7	51.7	0.1%	48.2	-1.8%

Total PCs and Tablets		144.9	142.8	-1.4%	124.9	-3.3%
Mobile Phones
	Standard Phones	5.3	3.7	-31.3%	0.8	-32.7%
	Smartphones	153.2	154.2	0.7%	146.0	-1.4%
Total Mobile Phones		158.5	157.9	-0.4%	146.8	-1.8%
Total
Total Personal Devices		303.4	300.7	-0.9%	271.7	-2.5%
∞∫∆ Daniel Research Group © (2022)

Trends and Assumptions

General

Replacement Rates will return to pre pandemic trends
Learn From Home and Entertainment From will drive demand in 2022 and then dissipate.
Business will continue to add employees that will drive provisioning demand.
The immediate and long-term impact of the pandemic may be best understood in terms of the balance between Units added to the Installed Base due to Unit Shipments and Units removed from the Installed Base due to Replacement Rates.

Desktop PCs

Consumer Units Shipments will decline at about 4% annually consistent with pre pandemic rates.
Work, Leaning and Entertainment Use cases will provide a floor such that Household Penetration will only decrease to slightly over 41% by 2026.
The Enterprise Installed Base deceased by 24% in 2020 and 2021, and will continue to shrink by 8.6% annually.
Enterprise Unit Shipments will remain essentially flat at -.5% annually decline at about 10% annually as the increase in Densities balances the decrease in Penetrations.

Mobile PCs

Household Penetration will reach 82% by 2026, Densities remain in the 1.06 -1.07 range over the forecast period.
Consumer Replacement Rates will accelerate through 2023 and the being slowing resulting in Unit Shipments declining by an annual average of -3.7% while the Installed Base increases by 3.5% annually.
Enterprise Mobile PC also experienced an Installed Base decrease in 2020 and 2021. This is reflected in the sharp drop in the Replacement Cycle Length. Replacement Rates will return to pre pandemic levels and trends in 2022.
Densities will continue to increase to above the pre pandemic levels as the average size of businesses increase.
Convertibles as a percent of total Mobile PCs will decrease from 14.6% to 12.8% over the forecast period.

Tablets

Tablets will continue to lose share to Mobile PCs in the Consumer Segment as Household Penetration decreases slightly to 86.6% and Densities decrease to 1.41 by 2026.
Tablet Penetration of business will increase to over 51% by 2026, however Densities will decrease to 6.5 per business.
With Replacement Rates accelerating, the Installed Base will decrease by 4% annually even though Unit Shipments will increase 4% annually.
Detachables will account for approximately 79% of Enterprise Tablet Unit Shipments and 44% of Consumer Tablet Unit Shipments by 2026

Mobile Phones

Over 96% of Households will have at least one Mobile Phone owner by 2026 with Densities dropping to 1.54 per Household.
5G Smartphone will account for 89% of total Smartphone Unit Shipment by the end of this year, and reaching 99.5% by 2026

About Daniel Research Group
DRG is a market research and consulting firm servicing technology clients. Its primary focus is developing custom market models and forecasts utilizing proprietary methodologies and algorithms developed over more than 30 years. The forecasts in this report were developed using DRG's EquilibriumSolver (EQS) methodology and application. To learn more about EQS, click on these links – Fact Sheet: White Paper:

Contact:
Steve Daniel, President
Daniel Research Group
(617) 484 – 6225
[email protected]
www.DanielResearchGroup.com

SOURCE Daniel Research Group