Data Scientist Coalition Develops More Accurate Social-Media Driven Formula for TV Forecasting

NEW YORK, April 19, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- SintecMedia, the world's leading provider of advertising management software, today announced that, along with a consortium of data and technology experts, the company has created an advanced machine learning algorithm to more accurately forecast future viewership of television programs. SintecMedia is part of a consortium started by the Israeli Science Ministry and includes government, academic and business experts in data science and technology. In a test pilot with a major global TV media network, the team bested the results from current manual processes, and feels confident that results will continue to significantly improve as testing continues.

Currently, major television companies lose up to 10% of their advertising revenue to inaccurate ratings projections. This new data-driven breakthrough could not only help companies regain lost revenue, but increase their ability to join TV and digital forecasting to better optimize delivery across channels. As part of the 5 year, $25 million initiative, the consortium devised a form of deep neural network called a long short memory network to predict GRP ratings, which relies on a variety of cutting edge methodologies including neural networks and natural language processing. The initial pilot compared manual results of a single network to the algorithm, which slightly improved upon the company's manual error rate (RMSE) of .22. 

"We are very encouraged by the success of our initial tests. This project has the very real potential to save media companies millions in lost advertising revenue, while significantly improving their current advertising operational efficiency," said Roy Gelbard, Professor of Information and Knowledge Systems at Bar-Ilan University. "This breakthrough will not only help media companies sell more accurately on TV, but takes them much closer to selling at scale across TV and digital media."

The novel process uses thousands of disparate types of information to create a rich forecast, from historical performance data, performance of similar programming, social media data from sites such as Twitter and Facebook, trending topics on search, and even the weather and holiday data. This formula not only predicts the success and size of viewership of upcoming, advertised shows, it can be used to predict the future success of similar programming. This breakthrough can significantly improve the accuracy and efficiency of current advertising markets for media companies, who currently rely on manual forecasts that cannot account for a rich array of important external variables. Inaccurate forecasting regularly costs media companies and advertisers millions of dollars in the form of under-delivered campaigns and makegoods.

"We are thrilled to be part of such an important initiative within the media industry, one that will help drive a data-driven future for television companies," said Amotz Yarden, CEO of SintecMedia. "These findings show the important link between TV and digital media, one that media companies must embrace in order to remain competitive as linear and digital come together."

About SintecMedia

SintecMedia is the preferred broadcast management for linear and digital, and a software partner for over 300 of the world's top media brands, including NBCU, CBS, ABC, AT&T, STARZ, Star India, Seven Australia and Sky. No other software company brings a comparable depth of experience to create truly innovative software that performs across all platforms, revenue models, and business units. Since 2000, SintecMedia has grown to over 1300 employees in 14 offices around the world and processes more than $40 billion in linear and digital advertising revenue for the best-known companies in the industry. For more information, visit www.sintecmedia.com.

SOURCE SintecMedia

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