Cox Automotive January Forecast: U.S. Auto Sales Volume Holds Steady, Inventory Levels Remain Tight

- Seasonality adjustments are expected to show an improved January sales pace, but sales volume remains constrained by low inventory.

- Annual new-vehicle sales pace in January is forecast to finish near 15.3 million, up from last month's 12.4 million pace, but down from last year's 16.8 million level.

- January sales volume is expected to finish near 1.01 million, below December 2021 and down nearly 9% from year-ago levels.

News provided by

Cox Automotive

Jan 26, 2022, 12:00 ET

ATLANTA, Jan. 26, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- New-vehicle sales in January are expected to reach 1.01 million units, a drop of 8.9% compared to January 2021, according to a forecast released today by Cox Automotive. The January pace of U.S. auto sales, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), is forecast to show a sizable month-over-month improvement and finish near 15.3 million, up from 12.4 million in December, which was the slowest pace since May 2020.

Improvement in the January sales pace is a positive sign for the market, but it is mostly due to seasonality adjustments. In fact, there haven't been any significant market changes to positively impact sales. New vehicle sales remain stuck in the 1.0-to-1.2 million range. January is expected to continue this trend, as the market continues to be held back by tight inventory. New-vehicle inventory is starting 2022 down 61% from last year—that means 1.2 million fewer vehicles available at the start of 2022 compared to the start of 2021.

According to Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive: "A large decline in sales to start the year after a robust holiday shopping period is expected, and adjustments are made to sales data to reflect this. In January, the seasonal factors will reveal that, even though sales volumes are stuck in their current range, the market is moving in the right direction and, importantly, not getting worse."

January 2022 Sales Forecast Highlights

Light vehicle sales are expected to fall 8.9% from last January and drop 17.1% from December 2021.
The SAAR is estimated to be 15.3 million, below last year's 16.8 million level, but a notable increase from December's 12.4 million pace.

January 2022 Sales Forecast

	Sales Forecast¹					Market Share
Segment	Jan-22	Jan-21	Dec-21	YOY%	MOM%	Jan-22	Dec-21	MOM
Mid-Size SUV/Crossover	190,000	189,492	228,703	0.3%	-16.9%	18.8%	18.8%	0.1%
Compact SUV/Crossover	155,000	182,921	180,521	-15.3%	-14.1%	15.3%	14.8%	0.5%
Full-Size Pickup Truck	155,000	163,397	181,730	-5.1%	-14.7%	15.3%	14.9%	0.4%
Compact Car	65,000	77,415	69,317	-16.0%	-6.2%	6.4%	5.7%	0.7%
Mid-Size Car	60,000	74,918	65,753	-19.9%	-8.7%	5.9%	5.4%	0.5%
Grand Total²	1,010,000	1,108,953	1,219,034	-8.9%	-17.1%
¹ Cox Automotive Industry Insights data
² Total includes segments not shown

All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.

About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive Inc. makes buying, selling, owning and using vehicles easier for everyone. The global company's more than 27,000 team members and family of brands, including Autotrader®, Dealer.com®, Dealertrack®, Dickinson Fleet Services, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital®, VinSolutions®, vAuto® and Xtime®, are passionate about helping millions of car shoppers, 40,000 auto dealer clients across five continents and many others throughout the automotive industry thrive for generations to come. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately-owned, Atlanta-based company with annual revenues of nearly $20 billion. www.coxautoinc.com

SOURCE Cox Automotive