Cox Automotive Forecast: US Auto Sales Expected to Finish First Half Higher by 2.9%, In Line with Expectations for Slow Growth

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Jun 25, 2024, 14:00 ET

June's new-vehicle sales pace is forecast to finish near 16.0 million, up 0.1 million from May's 15.9 million pace but down 0.1 million from last June's 16.1 million level.
First-half sales volume is forecast to increase by 2.9% year over year, thanks partly to strong results from Toyota, Honda and Ford; Stellantis and Tesla tumble.
Cox Automotive holds its full-year forecast steady at 15.7 million, with the sales pace through the first half expected to be 15.6 million, up from 15.4 million in the first half of 2023.

ATLANTA, June 25, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Cox Automotive forecasts U.S. new-vehicle sales in June to show mild improvement over last year, but high prices and interest rates continue to hinder a stronger market. In June, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or sales pace, is expected to finish near 16.0 million. This is down slightly from last June's 16.1 million level and a modest uptick from last month's 15.9 million pace.

According to Cox Automotive's Kelley Blue Book estimates, new-vehicle sales volume through the first half of 2024 is forecast to increase by nearly 225,000 units compared to the first half of 2023 – an increase of 2.9%. The sales pace through the first half is expected to be 15.6 million, up from 15.4 million in the first half of 2023.

Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, noted: "Sales have been relatively strong over the last few months thanks in large part to lower prices. Incentives are rising, which are helping vehicle buyers, but only somewhat. The expectation of falling prices coupled with rising uncertainty around interest rate policies may lead some vehicle buyers to wait."

Steady Full-Year Forecast Amid Growing Uncertainty
With expectations of uncertainty in the second half of 2024, Cox Automotive is holding its full-year new-vehicle sales forecast steady at 15.7 million, a gain of 1.3% from 2023, when sales finished at 15.5 million. This increase is aligned with the slow growth expected in 2024. Fleet sales are forecast to finish the year at 2.9 million, up from 2.8 million in 2023. Full-year retail sales are forecast to increase from 12.8 million in 2024 to 12.7 million in 2023.

"We remain concerned that the second half of the year cannot maintain the growth we've seen so far," said Chesbrough. "Adding to the uncertainty in the market, many consumers likely believe things will be better, or at least more certain, after the November election, which adds to the hesitancy in buying. We still expect 2024 to finish a little better than 2023 – supported by more discounting and better prices, but we will be fighting an uncertain economic outlook."

GM Remains on Top; Toyota Volume Increases
General Motors is forecast to remain the top automaker in U.S. new-vehicle sales through the first half of 2024. However, GM sales are forecast to drop 0.1% compared to the first half of 2023. Toyota, which continues to operate with very lean new-vehicle supply, will remain No. 2 after delivering a sizable 16.3% first-half year-over-year gain. Ford and Hyundai are on track to remain the No. 3 and No. 4 automakers, respectively.

Notably, Honda Motor Company – combined Honda and Acura brand sales – is forecast to move ahead of Stellantis as the fifth largest automaker by sales. With stronger inventory and popular new models, Honda is expected to post a 10.8% volume increase in the first half, compared to a 16.5% decrease for Stellantis in the same period.

June 2024 U.S. New-Vehicle Sales Forecast

	Sales Forecast¹					Market Share
Segment	Jun-24	Jun-23	May-24	YOY%	MOM%	Jun-24	May-24	MOM
Mid-Size Car	75,000	83,294	76,786	-10.0 %	-2.3 %	5.4 %	5.3 %	0.1 %
Compact Car	105,000	94,219	110,671	11.4 %	-5.1 %	7.6 %	7.7 %	-0.1 %
Compact SUV/Crossover	235,000	225,156	244,294	4.4 %	-3.8 %	16.9 %	16.9 %	0.0 %
Full-Size Pickup Truck	190,000	196,024	196,484	-3.1 %	-3.3 %	13.7 %	13.6 %	0.1 %
Mid-Size SUV/Crossover	225,000	222,217	233,167	1.3 %	-3.5 %	16.2 %	16.1 %	0.1 %
Other Segments	558,000	560,955	584,639	-0.5 %	-4.6 %	40.2 %	40.4 %	-0.2 %
Grand Total^l2	1,388,000	1,381,865	1,446,041	0.4 %	-4.0 %

¹Cox Automotive Industry Insights data
² Total includes segments not shown

Q2 2024 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast¹

OEM	Q2 2023	Q1 2024	Q2 2024	versus Q2 '23	YTD 2023	YTD 2024	versus YTD '23	YTD Share
General Motors	689,393	590,055	697,804	1.2 %	1,288,581	1,287,859	-0.1 %	16.2 %
Toyota	568,963	565,097	642,902	13.0 %	1,038,521	1,207,999	16.3 %	15.2 %
Ford	527,905	504,815	551,527	4.5 %	999,766	1,056,342	5.7 %	13.3 %
Hyundai	437,826	379,203	449,315	2.6 %	820,180	828,518	1.0 %	10.4 %
Honda	347,025	333,824	365,719	5.4 %	631,532	699,543	10.8 %	8.8 %
Stellantis	434,648	332,541	337,906	-22.3 %	802,975	670,447	-16.5 %	8.5 %
Nissan Mitsu	268,955	281,138	256,079	-4.8 %	525,711	537,217	2.2 %	6.8 %
VW	151,411	139,756	174,748	15.4 %	289,467	314,504	8.6 %	4.0 %
Subaru	160,713	152,996	171,397	6.6 %	304,089	324,393	6.7 %	4.1 %
Tesla	175,262	140,187	148,462	-15.3 %	336,892	288,649	-14.3 %	3.6 %
Mazda	95,399	100,103	100,071	4.9 %	183,783	200,174	8.9 %	2.5 %
BMW	95,533	90,844	96,436	0.9 %	185,283	187,280	1.1 %	2.4 %
Mercedes-Benz	96,019	82,623	88,486	-7.8 %	171,720	171,109	-0.4 %	2.2 %
Nation²	4,117,571	3,768,960	4,160,657	1.0 %	7,705,381	7,929,617	2.9 %	100.0 %

¹Cox Automotive Industry Insights data
² Total includes segments not shown

All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate. There are 26 selling days this June, which is the same as last year and last month. There were 154 selling days in H1 2023 and H1 2024.

About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive is the world's largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets. The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a portfolio of industry-leading brands that include Autotrader^®, Kelley Blue Book^®, Manheim^®, vAuto^®, Dealertrack^®, NextGear Capital™, CentralDispatch^® and FleetNet America^®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $22 billion in annual revenue. Visit coxautoinc.com or connect via @CoxAutomotive on X, CoxAutoInc on Facebook or Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn.