Coronavirus Causes Biggest Annual Rent Growth Slowdown in at Least Five Years

Momentum continues to build in the for-sale market with newly pending sales, new listings and home values on the rise

- The pace of year-over-year rent growth saw the biggest one-month slowdown since at least 2014, up 2.9% in April after 3.4% growth in March. Rents fell from March in 16 major markets.

- Newly pending sales continue to rise, now nearly 50% higher than a month ago.

- The typical U.S. home is now worth $250,492, up 4.3% year over year.

- The flow of new for-sale listings is increasing, but total inventory remains about 20% below last year's already low levels.

News provided by

Zillow

May 26, 2020, 08:00 ET

SEATTLE, May 26, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Rent prices slowed more than they had in at least five years when the coronavirus pandemic hit, according to the April Zillow® Real Estate Market Reportⁱ. But the for-sale market continues to heat up after a slower early April.

Rent prices had been chugging along at a remarkably stable pace since 2018, with the growth rate rarely rising or falling much from one month to the next. That changed in April, the first reading since the coronavirus pandemic struck the U.S.

The typical rent in the U.S. is $1,594, up 2.9% from a year ago, which is the slowest pace of annual growth since December 2017ⁱⁱ. Rents were growing 3.4% year over year in March, and that half a percentage point slowdown is the most dramatic since at least 2014.

Year-over-year rent price growth slowed from March to April in 33 of the 35 largest U.S. metros, with Columbus and Cleveland being the two exceptions. Rents outright fell from March in 16 large metros, and were flat in two others. The biggest drops were in Austin (down 1.1% month over month), Charlotte (down 0.7%), Baltimore (down 0.6%) and San Jose, Calif. (down 0.6%).

The rental market has been hit especially hard because those who are in jobs that faced the most layoffs and furloughs tend to be renters. They also tend to spend more of their monthly income on rent, which means they have less ability to save in case of emergencies.

The for-sale market continues to show momentum, though. Newly pending sales are up 13% week over week and nearly 50% month over month as of the seven days ending May 10. And they are higher than last year in four large metros -- Cleveland (up 10% year over year), Cincinnati (up 3.8%), Houston (up 2%) and Dallas-Fort Worth (up 0.9%).

Home values continued their upward trajectory in April, with the typical U.S. home value growing 4.3% year over year to $250,492. The pace of yearly home value growth has now accelerated every month this year after slowing for 20 consecutive months beginning in spring 2018.

"The for-sale market continues to improve and seemingly has the bottom in the rearview mirror, but rent growth has slowed significantly," said Skylar Olsen, senior principal economist at Zillow. "Housing was in a generally strong position before the pandemic, with low inventory and high prices shutting many would-be buyers out and creating unusually high demand for rentals. Rents soared, making it difficult for many to build emergency savings to tap into at a time like now. We're seeing rents slow now as some people are no doubt pursuing more-affordable options such as moving back in with parents, moving to a less-expensive area or doubling up in instances where it can be done safely."

New for-sale listings have turned the corner after a steep drop in early spring, now up 12.5% month over month as of the seven days ending May 10, but they remain down 27.6% from last year.

The relatively low, though improving, flow of new listings and the increasing rate of pending sales have caused total inventory to fall 20% below last year's level. Improving buyer demand with such little choice is expected to keep pressure on home prices. Zillow's most recent forecast shows an expected 2.7% fall in home prices from February to October.

Mortgage rates listed by third-party lenders on Zillow rose to a peak of 3.76% on April 6th, after starting the month at 3.63%. Rates reached their monthly low on April 29th at 3.41%. Zillow's real-time mortgage rates are based on thousands of custom mortgage quotes submitted daily to anonymous borrowers on the Zillow Mortgages site by third-party lenders and reflect recent changes in the market.

	Rental Market			For-Sale Market
Metropolitan Area	Typical Rent, April 2020	Typical Rent - YOY Change, April 2020	Typical Rent - YOY Change, March 2020	Zillow Home Value Index, April 2020	Zillow Home Value Index - YOY Change	Newly Pending Sales - MOM Change*	New Listings - MOM Change*	Total Inventory - YOY Change*
United States	$1,594	2.9%	3.4%	$250,492	4.3%	48.9%	12.5%	-19.9%
New York, NY	$2,549	1.1%	1.4%	$487,721	1.2%	10.8%	27.1%	-28.3%
Los Angeles, CA	$2,503	2.3%	3.3%	$701,888	5.5%	45.4%	14.6%	-31.0%
Chicago, IL	$1,682	1.6%	2.5%	$243,458	1.0%	56.4%	14.3%	-22.2%
Dallas-Fort Worth, TX	$1,535	2.1%	3.2%	$257,272	2.7%	52.1%	14.1%	-13.2%
Philadelphia, PA	$1,540	2.5%	3.2%	$254,195	3.2%	57.0%	11.8%	-37.7%
Houston, TX	$1,471	1.3%	1.6%	$220,341	2.8%	54.1%	19.2%	-6.9%
Washington, DC	$1,991	1.8%	2.5%	$442,244	3.2%	36.8%	-8.2%	-30.3%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL	$1,881	2.6%	2.9%	$305,477	3.2%	56.3%	6.1%	-13.5%
Atlanta, GA	$1,480	2.8%	3.3%	$245,792	4.9%	15.6%	4.4%	-4.0%
Boston, MA	$2,652	2.5%	3.4%	$502,387	3.4%	42.9%	29.0%	-36.6%
San Francisco, CA	$3,053	1.6%	2.4%	$1,139,253	2.9%	N/A	42.0%	-24.1%
Detroit, MI	$1,102	2.7%	3.0%	$185,538	5.3%	173.7%	212.5%	-12.9%
Riverside, CA	$1,902	4.3%	4.7%	$390,927	3.7%	56.1%	-5.3%	-27.2%
Phoenix, AZ	$1,454	7.0%	8.2%	$298,953	8.9%	33.3%	-4.4%	-26.2%
Seattle, WA	$1,943	4.7%	6.3%	$547,635	7.0%	48.6%	15.3%	-39.0%
Minneapolis-St Paul, MN	$1,534	3.1%	4.1%	$300,093	4.8%	N/A	29.4%	-10.3%
San Diego, CA	$2,306	2.8%	3.8%	$629,889	5.5%	N/A	10.7%	-30.2%
St. Louis, MO	$1,027	3.4%	3.8%	$181,925	2.8%	44.7%	3.5%	-26.3%
Tampa, FL	$1,494	3.7%	4.2%	$235,301	5.6%	N/A	1.7%	-16.7%
Baltimore, MD	$1,535	0.4%	1.6%	$296,276	1.2%	49.8%	10.0%	-32.3%
Denver, CO	$1,707	1.8%	3.3%	$447,558	2.9%	66.8%	38.0%	-14.6%
Pittsburgh, PA	$1,152	3.1%	3.4%	$161,597	4.6%	88.3%	72.8%	-20.4%
Portland, OR	$1,575	2.3%	3.3%	$425,621	3.0%	58.3%	-5.3%	-22.3%
Charlotte, NC	$1,417	3.6%	4.9%	$242,339	6.2%	52.8%	-2.5%	-22.3%
Sacramento, CA	$1,783	3.6%	4.2%	$443,358	5.6%	64.7%	-3.0%	-15.0%
San Antonio, TX	$1,278	2.6%	3.0%	$206,899	2.9%	N/A	6.6%	-5.1%
Orlando, FL	$1,542	1.8%	2.9%	$261,429	4.6%	N/A	0.9%	-8.6%
Cincinnati, OH	$1,161	4.6%	5.4%	$189,344	4.7%	45.4%	4.8%	-27.3%
Cleveland, OH	$1,032	3.3%	2.5%	$161,817	5.3%	38.0%	6.0%	-35.9%
Kansas City, MO	$1,069	3.3%	3.6%	$208,746	4.4%	47.1%	17.0%	-31.1%
Las Vegas, NV	$1,418	3.1%	4.3%	$298,461	2.6%	46.4%	6.3%	-19.1%
Columbus, OH	$1,208	3.4%	3.3%	$217,008	6.2%	9.0%	10.0%	-24.1%
Indianapolis, IN	$1,059	3.2%	3.6%	$185,391	6.1%	43.0%	33.3%	-21.2%
San Jose, CA	$3,079	1.3%	2.7%	$1,250,138	3.3%	N/A	17.8%	-27.6%
Austin, TX	$1,567	2.2%	4.4%	$346,502	4.2%	53.2%	4.3%	-13.2%

*As of the seven days ending May 10

About Zillow
Zillow, the top real estate website in the U.S., is building an on-demand real estate experience. Whether selling, buying, renting or financing, customers can turn to Zillow's businesses to find and get into their next home with speed, certainty and ease.

In addition to for-sale and rental listings, Zillow Offers buys and sells homes directly in dozens of markets across the country, allowing sellers control over their timeline. Zillow Home Loans, our affiliate lender, provides our customers with an easy option to get pre-approved and secure financing for their next home purchase.

Millions of people visit Zillow Group sites every month to start their home search, and now they can rely on Zillow to help them finish it — with the same confidence, ease and empowerment they've come to expect from real estate's most trusted brand.

Launched in 2006, Zillow is owned and operated by Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:Z and ZG) and headquartered in Seattle.

Zillow and Zillow Offers are registered trademarks of Zillow, Inc.

ⁱ The Zillow Real Estate Market Reports are a monthly overview of the national and local real estate markets. The reports are compiled by Zillow Real Estate Research. For more information, visit www.zillow.com/research/. The data in Zillow's Real Estate Market Reports are aggregated from public sources by a number of data providers for 928 metropolitan and micropolitan areas dating back to 1996. Mortgage and home loan data are typically recorded in each county and publicly available through a county recorder's office. All current monthly data at the national, state, metro, city, ZIP code and neighborhood level can be accessed at www.zillow.com/research/data.

ⁱⁱ Note: Rent prices were calculated using the Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), which measures how asking rents change over time. ZORI uses Zillow's industry-leading database of rental properties to calculate price differences for the same rental unit over time, and aggregates results across the full spectrum of rentals that were listed for rent more than once. Units are weighted to adjust for those that appear more frequently. Read more about the methodology here: https://www.zillow.com/research/methodology-zori-repeat-rent-27092/&sa=D&ust=1590016775810000&usg=AFQjCNF9IOVjPAKM7RZAM6WjgTawDsraYQ

SOURCE Zillow