Continued Constrain on Inventory and Record-High Manhattan Condo Prices in August Point to Challenging Fall for Buyers

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Sep 26, 2014, 09:00 ET

NEW YORK, Sept. 26, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Key facts:

Manhattan condo inventory fell for the third consecutive month in August, down 4.6 percent from July. Inventory is 18.9 percent below the 5-year average level.
Manhattan condo sale prices rose 0.4 percent from July to a new record high, and remain 8.8 percent above year-ago levels, according to the StreetEasy Condo Price Index
Among the four Manhattan submarkets, condo prices were the highest in Downtown, but the Upper East Side saw the highest month-over-month increase in prices (2.6 percent).
The StreetEasy Condo Price Forecast predicts condo price growth will remain essentially flat in September, rising 0.1 percent from the prior month.
Condos that went into contract in August spent a median of 63 days on the market, nearly half of what they were listed for at the previous market peak in September 2007 (112 days).

Home prices in the Manhattan condo market reached an all-time high in August, and are now nearly 7 percent higher than their previous peak in September 2007. Lack of inventory remains a key driver in condo price gains, according to the August StreetEasy® Manhattan Condo Market Report[i]

The total number of condos listed on the market in August fell by 4.6 percent from July, an expected slowdown that occurs during the summer months. Inventory remains 18.9 percent below the five-year average for Manhattan. In an encouraging sign for buyers, August inventory was 5.8 percent higher than a year ago, marking the third consecutive month inventory exceeded 2013 levels (see Figure 1).

According to the StreetEasy Condo Price Index (SECPI)[ii], Manhattan condo prices increased by 0.4 percent since July, surpassing the previous record high set last month. August represents the highest price reported since StreetEasy began tracking the market in 1995. Condo prices remain 8.8 percent higher than prices in August 2013 and are 6.7 percent higher than the previous market peak in September 2007. Prices are predicted to see little movement in September (0.1 percent), according to the StreetEasy Condo Price Forecast[iii].

"Buyers hoping that the Manhattan condo market would cool by the fall may be in for disappointment as August data points to more of the same from spring and summer 2014: less inventory and higher prices," said StreetEasy Data Scientist Alan Lightfeldt. "Without a substantial reversal of Manhattan's two-year long inventory drought, sellers will continue to have the upper hand and buyers should not expect to see much relief in either prices or heated competition for the limited supply on the market."

Among the four submarkets within the borough, condo prices were the highest in Downtown, which has outperformed Manhattan every month since October 2005 as measured by the SECPI. The Upper East Side saw the highest month-over-month increase in prices (2.6 percent). There was a similar monthly rise in prices on the Upper West Side, where prices grew 1.8 percent. Midtown was the only submarket to see prices ease in August (-1.3 percent) as inventory growth there significantly outpaced the rest of the borough.

Condos that went into contract in August spent a median of 63 days on the market[iv], unchanged from July and 7 days longer than this time last year. At the previous market peak (September 2007), condos spent nearly double the amount of time on the market (112 days) before they entered into contract.

Figure 1

The full report, including a neighborhood breakdown of StreetEasy Manhattan Condo Market Report data and additional analysis, can be viewed at streeteasy.com/market/reports.

About StreetEasy:

Launched in 2006 and acquired by Zillow, Inc. in August 2013, StreetEasy is New York City's leading real estate marketplace, providing accurate and comprehensive for-sale and for-rent listings from hundreds of real estate brokerages in New York City. The site adds layers of deep, proprietary data and useful search tools that help consumers and real estate professionals navigate the complex real estate markets within the five boroughs of New York City, Northern New Jersey and the Hamptons.

[i] The StreetEasy Manhattan Condo Market Report is a monthly overview of the Manhattan condo real estate market. The report data is aggregated from public sources by a number of data providers and real estate brokerages for all five major submarkets within Manhattan, with most metrics dating back to 1995. The reports are compiled by the StreetEasy Research team. For more information, visit streeteasy.com/market/reports. StreetEasy also tracks data for the five boroughs within New York City.

[ii] The StreetEasy Condo Price Index (SECPI), previously named the StreetEasy Condo Market Index, provides a measurement for how prices are moving in the Manhattan condo real estate market. It is based on a repeat-sales method, which compares the sale prices of the same properties over time. The SECPI is indexed to the year 2000 with a value of 100. A value of 200, for example, would indicate that Manhattan condos are trading at twice their 2000 price. Since the repeat-sales methodology tracks price changes over time in the same unit, the SECPI is a much more reliable measure for sale prices as it controls for biases and errors created by variables such as location, size, age, and condition.

[iii] The StreetEasy Condo Price Forecast (SECPF) predicts the change in Manhattan condo sale prices one month out from the current reported period. By incorporating the StreetEasy Condo Price Index, StreetEasy's comprehensive database of listing prices and days on market - two leading indicators to future condo prices - we are able to accurately forecast next month's condo prices before the release of publicly recorded sales data.

[iv] Median days on market measures the number of days from the original listing on StreetEasy to when it enters into contract. After a buyer enters a contract on a unit, it is pulled from the market and is no longer available to other buyers - creating a logical end point to "days on market."

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SOURCE StreetEasy