Commodity Markets Decline Due to Concerns Over Weaker Global Economic Growth, the Eurozone Debt Crisis and Broad Market Uncertainty

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Jul 14, 2011, 12:31 ET

NEW YORK, July 14, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Concerns over weaker global economic growth and the Eurozone debt crisis along with fundamental commodity-specific factors led to declines across most commodities in June.

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Nelson Louie, Global Head of Commodities at Credit Suisse Asset Management, said, "Prices of risky assets generally decreased in the month of June. Commodities markets were volatile due to uncertainty surrounding the Eurozone debt crisis, concerns regarding global growth, and delays in reaching a consensus by the U.S. Congress to address its debt ceiling. As we move into the third quarter of this year, these macro-economic uncertainties appear likely to continue. However, generally tight supply conditions and continued global growth in commodity demand could exert further upward pressure on prices."

Christopher Burton, Senior Portfolio Manager for the Credit Suisse Total Commodity Return Strategy, added, "In the long term, we believe commodities will continue to offer value for investors despite risk aversion and potential volatility across capital and commodity markets. Market uncertainty can impact traditional asset classes and commodities differently. Therefore, we believe investors will continue to benefit from the diversification benefits that commodities provide."

The Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total Return was down by 5.04% in June. Overall, 14 out of 19 index constituents decreased in value. Agriculture was the weakest sector, down 8.17% for the month. Improved weather conditions across the U.S. and Europe had a negative impact on grains, as did the latest USDA Acreage and Inventory reports, which showed higher inventories and increased plantings. The Russian government announced that it had no plans to enact a grain export tax after having recently re-opened its grain markets, while their Minister of the Economy spoke optimistically about the 2011 crop. Energy saw broad declines, ending the month 6.39% lower, as Crude Oil supply seemed set to increase. Saudi Arabia indicated it would raise its Crude Oil production, despite the lack of agreement to raise quotas at the latest OPEC meeting. The International Energy Association ("IEA") subsequently announced it would release 60 million barrels of petroleum products over an initial period of 30 days to make up for the loss of Libyan production. Livestock was the best performing sector, up 4.05% for the month, led by Live Cattle. Industrial Metals were nearly unchanged, as individual supply and demand fundamentals led to mixed performance from the sector components. Precious Metals decreased 4.07% for the month, with both Gold and Silver coming under pressure. The Federal Reserve reported that inflation had moved above its target which reduced the likelihood of further rounds of quantitative easing and, in turn, lowered future inflation expectations.

The Credit Suisse Total Commodity Return Strategy group periodically produces updates on relevant industry topics. For a copy of the team's white paper, "How Commodities Can Help Investors Face the Uncertainty of the Inflation/Deflation Debate", please email [email protected].

About the Credit Suisse Total Commodity Return Strategy

Credit Suisse's Total Commodity Return Strategy has been managed for 14 years and seeks to outperform the return of a commodities index, such as the Dow Jones–UBS Commodity Index Total Return or the S&P GSCI Total Return Index, using a quantitative commodity research process. Commodity index total returns are achieved through:

Spot Return: price return on specified commodity futures contracts;
Roll Yield: impact due to migration of futures positions from near to far contracts; and
Collateral Yield: return earned on collateral for the futures.

As of June 30, 2011 the team managed approximately USD 10.5 billion in assets globally.

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