Commodities Rose on Reduced Supplies

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Jun 11, 2018, 09:30 ET

NEW YORK, June 11, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Commodities rose in May as supplies were reduced due to higher temperatures and increased demand.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return performance was higher for the month, with 15 out of 22 Index constituents posting gains.

Credit Suisse Asset Management observed the following:

Energy increased 2.66%, led higher by Natural Gas, after persistent above-normal temperatures throughout the US raised cooling demand, slowing the pace of storage builds, which were already running below seasonal averages since April 1st, the start of injection season.
Industrial Metals rose 2.43%. Nickel gained as stockpiles tracked by the LME and SHFE continued to fall and as Chinese production of stainless steel increased.
Livestock was 2.22% higher, led up by Lean Hogs, after the USDA revised second quarter pork production forecasts down from the previous month's forecast.
Agriculture increased 0.58%, led higher by Cotton, which gained as continued dryness in Western Texas threatened crop conditions and reduced crop yield expectations.
Precious Metals declined 0.98%, led lower by Gold, despite a rise in geopolitical tensions between the US and China as well as in Italy; these forces were outweighed by a strengthening US Dollar.

Nelson Louie, Global Head of Commodities for Credit Suisse Asset Management, said: "May was marked by various policy changes from the US administration, which affected commodity markets. Early in the month, the US reinstated nuclear-related sanctions against Iran. It remains unclear on how exactly that will impact Iranian crude oil production and exports in the short-term. The threat of reduced exports from Iran added to existing bullish sentiment regarding OPEC's overall greater-than-expected output cuts due to the ongoing production shortfalls in Venezuela. In addition, rising energy prices have contributed to higher inflation readings within the US and the Eurozone in May compared to the year prior. As global energy demand continues to grow and inventories shrink, crude oil may become more susceptible to supply shocks, leading to potential periods of greater-than-expected inflation."

Christopher Burton, Senior Portfolio Manager for the Credit Suisse Total Commodity Return Strategy, added: "Trade policies initiated by the US may have also served as an inflation driver. The US ultimately decided to impose steel and aluminum duties on key trading partners. Some countries already imposed their own retaliatory duties on US agricultural and industrial goods, while other nations are in the process of issuing their own. In addition, trade relations between the US and China worsened after the US stated it would impose tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods. The threat of more tariffs has increased inflation expectations globally while potentially bringing down growth expectations. Meanwhile, US consumer confidence levels gained in May, fueled by unemployment reaching 3.9%, the lowest level since December 2000. As consumer buying power increases and labor becomes more expensive, inflation expectations may increase."

About the Credit Suisse Total Commodity Return Strategy
Credit Suisse's Total Commodity Return Strategy is managed by a team with over 32 years of experience, and seeks to outperform the return of a commodities index, such as the Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return or the S&P GSCI Total Return Index, using both a quantitative and qualitative commodity research process. Commodity index total returns are achieved through:

Spot Return: price return on specified commodity futures contracts;
Roll Yield: impact due to migration of futures positions from near to far contracts; and
Collateral Yield: return earned on collateral for the futures.

As of May 31, 2018, the Team managed approximately USD 9.4 billion in assets globally.

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Certain risks relating to investing in Commodities and Commodity-Linked Investments: Exposure to commodity markets should only form a small part of a diversified portfolio. Investment in commodity markets may not be suitable for all investors. Commodity investments will be affected by changes in overall market movements, commodity volatility, exchange-rate movements, changes in interest rates, and factors affecting a particular industry or commodity, such as drought, floods, weather, livestock disease, embargoes, tariffs and international economic, political and regulatory developments. Commodity markets are highly volatile. The risk of loss in commodities and commodity-linked investments can be substantial. There is generally a high degree of leverage in commodity investing that can significantly magnify losses. Gains or losses from speculative derivative positions may be much greater than the derivative's original cost. An investment in commodities is not a complete investment program and should represent only a portion of an investor's portfolio management strategy.

SOURCE Credit Suisse AG