Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index(TM) Drops 0.3 Percent in April, Signaling a Stalled Economic Recovery

MINNEAPOLIS, May 12 /PRNewswire/ -- With the release of April's figures, the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management is showing flat, overall performance during the first four months of 2010. The PCI in April fell 0.3 percent, suggesting the economic recovery may have stalled, although an uptick in consumer spending could continue to drive a slow but steady recovery. Year-over-year growth of 6.5 percent in the PCI marks the fifth straight month of steady increase at "better than normal" levels. However, year-over-year growth of 10 to 15 percent in the PCI is required to drive down the unemployment rate.

While the economy continues to climb year-over-year, the PCI indicates that expectations in the market for a robust recovery may be too optimistic. The PCI closely tracks the Federal Reserve's monthly Industrial Production index, and with each PCI release comes a lowering of expectations for Industrial Production growth. The PCI now indicates Industrial Production to grow by 0.4 percent in April when the Federal Reserve releases its report on May 14. Last month, the PCI suggested an April growth rate of 0.6 percent, and in March, PCI anticipated an April increase of 0.85 percent.

"The latest PCI numbers are disappointing and cast considerable doubt on the strength of the recovery and the strength of GDP numbers for 2010," said Ed Leamer, the PCI's chief economist. "The next two months will tell if the first quarter's healthy consumer spending will help lift the PCI and propel stronger GDP growth for the year."

The PCI is based on an analysis of real-time diesel fuel consumption data from over the road trucking tracked by Ceridian, a global provider of electronic and stored value card payment services and human resources solutions. The complete April report and additional commentary is available at www.ceridianindex.com.

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index also provides data for the nine Census regions. Five of the nine regions were weak in April, explaining the overall PCI decline of 0.3 percent. Heavy trucking areas such as the East North Central region (e.g. Ohio and Michigan) fell 1.7 percent, the South Atlantic region (e.g. Virginia and the Carolinas) declined 1.1 percent and the East South Central was down 0.4 percent. The significant West South Central region experienced zero growth in April.  

The index is built by analyzing Ceridian's electronic card payment data that captures the location and volume of diesel fuel being purchased by over the road trucking operations, providing a detailed picture of the movement of products across the United States. "What we are seeing with the PCI and hearing from our customers is that the economy is better than last year, but not great," said Craig Manson, senior vice president and index expert for Ceridian. "The economy appears to be in recovery, but the big question is by how much? The next two months will tell us a lot about the rest of the year."

Additional information on the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index is available at www.ceridianindex.com or by contacting [email protected]. The site offers further detail such as index graphs and downloadable data, video commentary, information on how the data is obtained, and the opportunity to receive updates on the latest information via e-mail and RSS feeds. The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index results for May will be publicly released on June 10.

About Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ is based on real-time diesel fuel consumption data for over the road trucking and serves as an indicator of the state and possible future direction of the U.S. economy. By tracking the volume and location of fuel being purchased, the index closely monitors the over the road movement of raw materials, goods-in-process and finished goods to U.S. factories, retailers and consumers. Working with economists at UCLA Anderson School of Management and Charles River Associates, Ceridian provides the index monthly and also offers companies access to more detailed fuel-use information. Ceridian is a global business services company providing electronic and stored value card payment services and human resources solutions. UCLA Anderson School of Management is perennially ranked among top-tier business schools in the world. Charles River Associates is a leading global consulting firm that offers economic, financial, and business management expertise to organizations around the world.

For additional information on the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index, please visit www.ceridianindex.com.

SOURCE Ceridian