Both Nationally and Locally, Americans -- Particularly Independents -- Have Little Love for Congress

NEW YORK, Sept. 23, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- We're only weeks away from the midterm election, and if there's one thing anyone following politics probably knows by now, it's that Americans continue to have low opinions of Congress. What's more, many Americans – particularly independents – seem to be pessimistic that the Senate and the House of Representatives can better address the country's problems the next time around. Last month 8% of Americans gave Congress positive ratings and this month 7% do so, while 93% of Americans give them negative marks on the overall job they are doing.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll® of 2,543 U.S. adults surveyed online between September 10 and 17, 2014. (Full results, including data tables, available here)

While Americans across political affiliations are disinclined to give Congress positive ratings, it's Independents who are least likely to rate them positively: only 4% of Independents give Congress positive ratings, compared to 7% of Republicans and 10% of Democrats.   

Of course, Senators and Representatives don't need to please the whole country – just their constituents. On that score though, only 18% of Americans give a positive rating for the overall job their member of the House of Representatives is doing, down from 22% in June. Independents are again the least enthused, with only 13% rating their Representative positively, compared to 20% of Democrats and 22% of Republicans.

Middling midterm expectations
Oddsmakers are hard at work laying out the likelihoods of possible outcomes for the midterm Congressional elections; currently the statistical edge is being given to the Republicans to hold the House and take the Senate, but a lot can happen in six weeks. So what would be best for the country, both overall and for moving forward on specific issues? Americans don't seem to think "ownership" of the Senate and the House is likely to change much of anything. When asked which possible outcome (Republicans or Democrats sweeping both halls, holding as they are or making an even swap of it) would be best for progress in the state of the country in general and for an extensive set of issues, pluralities say that it makes no difference for most of the issues tested. What's more, among Independents this is the top response across all issues.

Some examples where "makes no difference" led responses for both Americans overall and Independents specifically include:

• Political corruption (43% Americans, 51% Independents).
• Race relations (35% and 42%, respectively).
• Crime (34% and 40%, respectively).
• Congressional gridlock (32% and 37%, respectively).

But of course some Americans do believe it makes a difference who holds Congressional power, and some differences are apparent as to which party is seen as best suited to deal with certain issues. Looking specifically at selections of either the Republican or Democratic parties sweeping, and thus holding both halls of Congress:

• Americans overall are more likely to select a Republican party sweep as the outcome most likely to lead to progress for crime-related issues, with 21% of Americans selecting a Republican sweep as the best option and 14% selecting a Democratic sweep.
• Both U.S. adults overall and Independents specifically are more likely to choose a Republican sweep as the option most likely to lead to progress for conflicts in both the Middle East (Americans: 28% Rep sweep vs. 15% Dem sweep / Independents: 24% vs. 12%, respectively) and Eastern Europe (Americans: 25% Rep sweep vs. 14% Dem sweep / Independents: 22% vs. 9%, respectively).
• As to what issues a Democratic sweep is seen as best for, both Americans as a whole and Independents specifically are more likely to choose this outcome as most likely to lead to progress for income inequality (Americans: 29% Dem sweep vs. 17% Rep sweep / Independents: 27% vs. 12%, respectively) and race relations (Americans: 24% Dem sweep vs. 14% Rep sweep / Independents: 21% vs. 9%, respectively).
• Independents are also more likely to select a Democratic sweep as the outcome most likely to lead to progress in education, with 24% of Independents selecting a Democratic sweep as the best option and 13% selecting a Republican sweep.

Expertise is expected on Congressional committees
However the elections net out, one of the first tasks awaiting an incoming congress is parsing out appointments to specific committees and subcommittees on a wide variety of subjects. Given that many of these bodies wield no small amount of power, appointments are considered carefully – but how important is actual subject matter when it comes to getting a seat at one of these tables? And how important do Americans think it should be?

According to an August Harris Poll, strong majorities of Americans see it as somewhat or very important that  appointees have either experience or some other form of expertise on the committee's topical focus. Looking specifically as the perception of experience or expertise being very important, the top area where a command of the subject matter is valued seems to be intelligence (with 73% of Americans rating it very important), followed by foreign affairs (69%), financial services (68%), education (68%) and armed forces (66%).

Health/nutrition and science are the areas where Americans are most willing to flex on this, though it's worth noting that half still rate it very important that appointed have subject matter expertise for these fields (49% for health/nutrition, 52% for science). For committees related to the environment, 57% of Americans see experience or expertise as very important.

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Methodology
This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between September 10 and 17, 2014 among 2,543 adults (aged 18 and over). [Data pertaining to Congressional committees collected online within the United States between August 13 and 18, 2014 among 2,537 adults (18 and older)]. Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, The Harris Poll avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Poll surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in our panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of The Harris Poll.

The Harris Poll^® #88, September 23, 2014
By Larry Shannon-Missal, Managing Director, The Harris Poll

About The Harris Poll®
Begun in 1963, The Harris Poll is one of the longest running surveys measuring public opinion in the U.S. and is highly regarded throughout the world. The nationally representative polls, conducted primarily online, measure the knowledge, opinions, behaviors and motivations of the general public. New and trended polls on a wide variety of subjects including politics, the economy, healthcare, foreign affairs, science and technology, sports and entertainment, and lifestyles are published weekly. For more information, or to see other recent polls, visit the Harris Poll News Room.

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SOURCE The Harris Poll