BNA's Midyear Economic Outlook: Economy Will Strengthen in Second Half of Year and 2012

ARLINGTON, Va., July 1, 2011 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- After a weak first half of the year, U.S. economic growth will strengthen during the remainder of 2011 and in 2012, supported by lower energy prices, improved consumer confidence and job growth, and rising business investment and exports, according to survey results released today by BNA, a leading publisher of specialized news and information.

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The nation's real gross domestic product will grow 2.8 percent this year, matching its 2010 pace, and then accelerate to 3.2 percent growth in 2012, BNA said in its Midyear Economic Outlook.       The report is based on the consensus of 24 economic forecasters surveyed in June.

The new forecast for 2011 is less than the 3.0 percent real GDP increase expected by economists when surveyed by BNA in December 2010, prior to the oil price hikes, severe weather, and Japanese earthquake that restrained U.S. growth in the first half of the year.

In addition, the rate of inflation is now expected to double this year to 3.0 percent from 1.5 percent in 2010, then ease to 2.1 percent in 2012.

"Monthly job gains will average 192,000 for the rest of the year, somewhat better than the actual gain of 157,000 jobs averaged in the first half," BNA's report said. Job gains will improve in the first half of 2012 to an average 206,000. The unemployment rate will remain high during the rest of 2011, averaging 8.9 percent, before declining to 8.3 percent on average in 2012.

The Federal Reserve Board is expected to keep its key interest rate close to zero through the rest of 2011, and then raise it to 1.5 percent by the end of 2012.

The economists who participated in the BNA study are from financial institutions, consulting firms, and academia. They were interviewed from June 7-24.

BNA is the largest independent publisher of specialized news, analysis, and reference services for professionals. BNA analysts produce more than 350 news and information products, including the highly respected Daily Labor Report, U.S. Law Week, and Daily Report for Executives.

SOURCE BNA

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