Black Knight's September Data: At Least 7.4 Million 30-Year Loans Could Benefit by Refinancing; Negative Equity Share Drops Under 8 Percent
- Recent rate reductions have added an additional 1.4 million borrowers to 'refinancible' population
- Over half of all borrowers have 30 percent or more equity in their homes
- 28 consecutive months of home price appreciation since May 2012
- Less than 8 percent of active HELOCs had begun amortizing entering 2014; an additional 80 percent will do so through 2018
JACKSONVILLE, Fla., Nov. 3, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Today, the Data & Analytics division of Black Knight Financial Services released its latest Mortgage Monitor Report, based on data as of the end of September 2014. Using the company's comprehensive first and second lien mortgage databases, and leveraging data from its Home Price Index, Black Knight analyzed the current active mortgage population to investigate both the state of the 'refinancible' population as well as of the nation's current equity situation. According to Trey Barnes, Black Knight's senior vice president of Loan Data Products, recent reductions in the average 30-year mortgage interest rate have expanded the population of borrowers who could benefit from refinancing by nearly 25 percent.
"Before the most recent reductions in the average 30-year mortgage interest rate, approximately six million borrowers met broad-based 'refinancibility' criteria," said Barnes. "These criteria assume loan-to-value ratios of 80 percent or below, good credit, non-delinquent loan status and current interest rates high enough that borrowers have an incentive to refinance. In light of where rates are today, and looking at borrowers with current notes at 4.5 percent and above, that population has now swelled to 7.4 million -- almost a 25 percent increase. This is a relatively conservative assessment though, as those with current rates of 4.25 to 4.5 percent could arguably benefit from refinancing as well. That group adds another 1.7 million borrowers to the population.
"On a related note, we also examined how the equity situation in America has changed since we last looked. Due in no small part to 28 consecutive months of home price appreciation since 2012, we've seen the share of borrowers with negative equity drop down to just below eight percent as of July, down from a level of 33 percent at the end of 2011, and to its lowest point since 2007. An additional 8.5 percent of borrowers are in 'near-negative equity' positions, with less than 10 percent equity in their homes. However, more than half of all borrowers have 30 percent or more equity, a level not seen in nearly eight years."
In addition, Black Knight also looked again at currently active home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), and -- based on estimated 10-year draw periods -- found that only 7.74 percent of active HELOCs had begun amortizing entering 2014. Through 2018, nearly an additional 80 percent will end their draw periods, resulting in average payment increases (or "payment shock") of $262 per month. The most effective way of avoiding payment shock is to refinance a HELOC into a new loan or line of credit, but nearly 30 percent of HELOCs set to reset through 2018 are either in negative equity or near negative equity positions, making refinancing problematic.
| As was reported in Black Knight's most recent First Look news release, other key results include: |
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| Total U.S. loan delinquency rate: |
5.67 % |
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| Month-over-month change in delinquency rate: |
-3.90% |
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| Total U.S. foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate: |
1.76% |
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| Month-over-month change in foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate: |
-2.20% |
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| States with highest percentage of non-current* loans: |
MS, NJ, LA, NY, FL |
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| States with the lowest percentage of non-current* loans: |
MN, MT, CO, SD, ND |
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| States with highest percentage of seriously delinquent** loans: |
MS, AL, RI, LA, MA |
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| *Non-current totals combine foreclosures and delinquencies as a percent of active loans in that state. |
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| **Seriously delinquent loans are those past-due 90 days or more. |
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| Totals are extrapolated based on Black Knight Financial Services' loan-level database of mortgage assets. |
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About the Mortgage Monitor
The Data and Analytics division of Black Knight Financial Services manages the nation's leading repository of loan-level residential mortgage data and performance information on approximately two-thirds of the overall market, including tens of millions of loans across the spectrum of credit products and more than 140 million historical records. The company's research experts carefully analyze this data to produce a summary supplemented by dozens of charts and graphs that reflect trend and point-in-time observations for the monthly Mortgage Monitor Report. To review the full report, visit: http://www.bkfs.com/CorporateInformation/NewsRoom/Pages/Mortgage-Monitor.aspx
About Black Knight Financial Services, LLC
Black Knight Financial Services, a Fidelity National Financial (NYSE: FNF) company, is the mortgage and finance industries' leading provider of integrated technology, data and analytics solutions that facilitate and automate many of the business processes across the mortgage lifecycle.
Black Knight Financial Services is committed to being the premier business partner that lenders and servicers rely on to achieve their strategic goals, realize greater success and better serve their customers by delivering best-in-class technology, services and insight with a relentless commitment to excellence, innovation, integrity and leadership. For more information on Black Knight Financial Services, please visit www.bkfs.com.
SOURCE Black Knight Financial Services
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