Black Knight's December Mortgage Monitor: Recent REO Sales Gross Higher Recovery of Unpaid Balance; Monthly Prepayment Rate Increase Largest Since February 2009
- REO liquidations have overtaken short sales in terms of gross unpaid balance (UPB) recovery since Q4 2012
- GSE loans gross highest percentage of UPB recovery, and see shortest REO timelines
- Largest monthly prepayment increases seen in high credit, portfolio loans and recent vintages
- Over half of loans that became 30 days past due in November returned to current status in December
JACKSONVILLE, Fla., Feb. 2, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Today, the Data and Analytics division of Black Knight Financial Services released its latest Mortgage Monitor Report, based on data as of the end of December 2014. Leveraging the company's new Resolution Module, an expansion of its McDash loan-level mortgage performance data set, Black Knight looked at how different liquidation methods for properties facing foreclosure could affect how much of the properties' gross unpaid balances (UPB) could be recovered by lenders.
According to Trey Barnes, Black Knight's senior vice president of Loan Data Products, gross REO sales prices over the past two years have made up a higher percentage of corresponding unpaid loan balances due to increasing home prices nationwide.
"Black Knight's Resolution Module combines the industry's largest loan-level and property records databases to identify millions of involuntary liquidations, allowing our clients to accurately benchmark, calculate and model future losses on underperforming mortgages," said Barnes. "The most recent data shows that since Q4 2012, lenders have been recovering greater gross percentages of UPB through REO liquidations than through short sales; reversing a trend that held true throughout the housing market's crisis years. Of course, REO sales have additional timelines and associated costs that impact total losses and are not accounted for in this analysis. That said, on average, REO properties are selling for 71 percent of the corresponding loans' defaulted UPB, as compared to just 65 percent for short sales. Both recovery rates pale in comparison to third-party sales at foreclosure auction, however, where average gross sales price is 116 percent of UPB.
"We also saw clear separation in terms of gross UPB recovery by investor groups. REO sales on GSE loans gross a significantly higher percentage of UPB than do FHA and private/portfolio loans. GSE loans are currently averaging 75 percent gross UPB recovery through REO, whereas FHA loans see just 65 percent. Portfolio and private loans land in the middle, with gross recovery of 70 percent of UPB. In addition, REO timelines on GSE loans are shorter than both FHA and private/portfolio, averaging just 11.5 months to complete liquidation. Given the additional carrying costs lenders face while holding REO properties, the longer timelines associated with FHA and private/portfolio loans can add up."
Black Knight also reported that December's nearly 25 percent increase in the monthly prepayment rate (historically a good indicator of refinance activity) was most pronounced among loans with credit scores of 720 and higher, portfolio-held loans and those in recent vintages. The higher credit score group saw a nearly 30 percent month-over-month increase in prepayments, and portfolio loans increased over 42 percent. While 2011-2013 vintage loans saw roughly 30 percent increases in prepayment activity, prepayments on the 2014 vintage were up nearly 38 percent.
Finally, Black Knight found that of the roughly 675,000 loans that became 30 days past due in November, just over half (53 percent) reverted back to current status in December. An additional 32 percent remained 30 days delinquent, while 13 percent rolled into 60-day delinquency. To put this breakdown in context, over the past few months preceding December, between 47-48 percent of new 30-day delinquencies have been curing to current; between 34-35 percent have remained in the 30-day bucket; and between 15-17 percent have rolled into 60-day delinquency. Figures for December 2013 were 46, 35 and 18 percent, respectively, showing that December 2014 easily outpaced recent, as well as year-over-year figures.
| As was reported in Black Knight's most recent First Look release, other key results include: |
|
| Total U.S. loan delinquency rate: |
5.64% |
| Month-over-month change in delinquency rate: |
-7.21% |
| Total U.S. foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate: |
1.61% |
| Month-over-month change in foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate: |
-1.10% |
| States with highest percentage of non-current* loans: |
MS, NJ, LA, NY, RI |
| States with the lowest percentage of non-current* loans: |
MT, CO, AK, SD, ND |
| States with highest percentage of seriously delinquent** loans: |
MS, RI, LA, AL, ME |
| *Non-current totals combine foreclosures and delinquencies as a percent of active loans in that state. |
|
| **Seriously delinquent loans are those past-due 90 days or more. |
|
| Totals are extrapolated based on Black Knight Financial Services' loan-level database of mortgage assets. |
|
About the Mortgage Monitor
The Data and Analytics division of Black Knight Financial Services manages the nation's leading repository of loan-level residential mortgage data and performance information on approximately two-thirds of the overall market, including tens of millions of loans across the spectrum of credit products and more than 140 million historical records. The company's research experts carefully analyze this data to produce a summary supplemented by dozens of charts and graphs that reflect trend and point-in-time observations for the monthly Mortgage Monitor Report. To review the full report, visit: http://www.BKFS.com/CorporateInformation/NewsRoom/Pages/Mortgage-Monitor.aspx
About Black Knight Financial Services, LLC
Black Knight Financial Services, a Fidelity National Financial (NYSE:FNF) company, is the mortgage and finance industries' leading provider of integrated technology, data and analytics solutions that facilitate and automate many of the business processes across the mortgage lifecycle.
Black Knight Financial Services is committed to being the premier business partner that lenders and servicers rely on to achieve their strategic goals, realize greater success and better serve their customers by delivering best-in-class technology, services and insight with a relentless commitment to excellence, innovation, integrity and leadership. For more information on Black Knight Financial Services, please visit www.BKFS.com.
SOURCE Black Knight Financial Services
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