Black Friday Expected To Help New-Car Sales Rise 4 Percent For Highest November On Record, According To Kelley Blue Book

Cars Could Be Outsold 2-to-1 by Light Trucks; Subaru to Report Another Record-Breaking Month

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Nov 23, 2016, 01:34 ET

IRVINE, Calif., Nov. 23, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- New-vehicle sales are expected to increase 4 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.37 million units in November 2016, resulting in an estimated 17.7 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book www.kbb.com, the vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry. This will be the highest November sales total on record, beating the previous record of 1.32 million units in November 2001.

"Many automotive industry sales records will be broken in November; although, there is the added benefit of two extra selling days year-over-year," said Tim Fleming, analyst for Kelley Blue Book. "With the help of substantial incentives and holiday sales events, especially Black Friday weekend, retail sales will see the most significant improvements. SUVs and trucks continue to be the biggest sellers, and in fact, cars could be outsold 2-to-1 by light trucks once the final numbers are tallied."

After a record U.S. sales total in 2015, Kelley Blue Book's full-year forecast for 2016 calls for sales in the range of 17.3 to 17.5 million, which would range from a 1 percent decrease to a possible 1 percent increase.

Key Highlights for Estimated November 2016 Sales Forecast:

In November, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,370,000 units, up 4 percent from November 2015 and even with October 2016.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate for November 2016 is estimated to be 17.7 million, down from 18.1 million in November 2015 and down from 17.9 million in October 2016.
Retail sales are expected to account for 83.8 percent of volume in November 2016, up from 82.1 percent in November 2015.

Subaru to Report Another Record-Breaking Month; Honda Expected to Gain Market Share on Small SUVs

"Subaru of America could report another record-breaking month in November, and Kelley Blue Book projects 15 percent year-over-year growth," said Fleming. "Subaru crossovers like the Outback and Crosstrek will lead the way and should rise more than 20 percent, while their cars will likely be down. However, Subaru will soon receive a boost from the redesigned Impreza hitting dealerships in December."

American Honda also is expected to gain market share in November, approaching double-digit volume gains, largely because of Honda's small SUVs, the CR-V and HR-V. The CR-V is currently the top seller in the compact SUV and crossover segment, even though a redesigned model will be on the market in December.

	Sales Volume ¹			Market Share ²
Manufacturer	Nov-16	Nov-15	YOY %	Nov-16	Nov-15	YOY %
General Motors (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	249,000	229,296	8.6%	18.2%	17.4%	0.7%
Toyota Motor Company (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	195,000	189,517	2.9%	14.2%	14.4%	-0.2%
Ford Motor Company (Ford, Lincoln)	187,000	186,889	0.1%	13.6%	14.2%	-0.6%
Fiat Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, FIAT, Jeep, RAM)	168,000	175,974	-4.5%	12.3%	13.4%	-1.1%
American Honda (Acura, Honda)	126,000	115,441	9.1%	9.2%	8.8%	0.4%
Nissan North America (Infiniti, Nissan)	116,000	107,083	8.3%	8.5%	8.1%	0.3%
Hyundai-Kia	113,000	105,560	7.0%	8.2%	8.0%	0.2%
Subaru of America	53,000	46,070	15.0%	3.9%	3.5%	0.4%
Volkswagen Group (Audi, Volkswagen, Porsche)	47,500	45,032	5.5%	3.5%	3.4%	0.0%
Total ³	1,370,000	1,314,794	4.2%	-	-	-

¹Historical data from OEM sales announcements

² Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

³ Includes brands not shown

Full-Size Trucks Will Be No. 2 Segment in November; Mid-Size SUVs, Crossovers Make Double-Digit Gains

Full-size trucks will be the No. 2 segment in November, with growth highlighted by the RAM pickup truck as well as the Chevrolet Silverado. The redesigned Nissan Titan also should report significant gains, but domestic manufacturers still hold more than 90 percent of the volume in this segment.

Mid-size SUVs and crossovers also are proving to be quite popular this month, and Kelley Blue Book expects double-digit growth for the segment. Many models in this segment should have significant year-over-year growth, like the Nissan Murano, Toyota Highlander and Subaru Outback.

	Sales Volume ¹			Market Share
Segment	Nov-16	Nov-15	YOY %	Nov-16	Nov-15	YOY %
Compact SUV/Crossover	237,000	227,032	4.4%	17.3%	17.3%	0.0%
Full-Size Pickup Truck	190,000	172,436	10.2%	13.9%	13.1%	0.8%
Mid-Size SUV/Crossover	167,000	150,514	11.0%	12.2%	11.4%	0.7%
Compact Car	164,000	155,963	5.2%	12.0%	11.9%	0.1%
Mid-Size Car	155,000	158,557	-2.2%	11.3%	12.1%	-0.7%
Total ²	1,370,000	1,314,794	4.2%	-	-	-

¹ Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

² Includes segments not shown

There are 25 sales days in November 2016, compared to 23 sales days in November 2015. All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.

To discuss this topic, or any other automotive-related information, with a Kelley Blue Book analyst on-camera via the company's on-site studio, please contact a member of the Public Relations team to book an interview.

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About Kelley Blue Book (www.kbb.com)
Founded in 1926, Kelley Blue Book, The Trusted Resource®, is the vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry. Each week the company provides the most market-reflective values in the industry on its top-rated website KBB.com, including its famous Blue Book® Trade-In Values and Fair Purchase Price, which reports what others are paying for new and used cars this week. The company also provides vehicle pricing and values through various products and services available to car dealers, auto manufacturers, finance and insurance companies, and governmental agencies. Kelley Blue Book's KBB.com ranked highest in its category for brand equity by the 2016 Harris Poll EquiTrend^® study and has been named Online Auto Shopping Brand of the Year for five consecutive years. Kelley Blue Book Co., Inc. is a Cox Automotive brand.

About Cox Automotive
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