Ballotpedia Announces One Certain Outcome of Next Week's Elections

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Nov 02, 2023, 10:22 ET

MIDDLETON, Wis., Nov. 2, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Ballotpedia already knows one certain outcome of next week's off-cycle elections: Overall voter turnout will be a fraction of what it was in last year's congressional elections, and nowhere near the turnout we can expect for next year's presidential contest.

"Off-cycle elections routinely see less than a 25% voter turnout," said Cory Eucalitto, Ballotpedia's Managing Editor. "These elections don't receive as much media coverage as national contests, and for many voters they aren't as compelling."

Off-cycle election overview

Off-cycle elections are those held on a date other than Tuesday after the first Monday in November during even-numbered years at the same time as federal elections. Often viewed as an early predictor of upcoming even-year elections, they include everything from battleground gubernatorial elections to close state legislative chamber races.

"There's an abundance of important races to watch this year at the state and local level, and in the U.S. House special elections," said Eucalitto.

"In recent years we've seen local measures proposed and enacted to move county and municipal off-cycle elections from odd-numbered years to presidential and midterm election years," said Eucalitto. Thirteen such measures were passed in 2022 in California, Colorado, Florida, and Washington. There are no local measures on off-cycle, on-cycle elections to-date in 2023.

2023 off-cycle races to watch

Statewide
Five states hold off-cycle state elections for governor and other executive offices. Four of those states also hold off-cycle state legislative elections. This year, trifecta^{^[1]} status is up for grabs in Kentucky, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia. Louisiana, Kentucky, and Mississippi are holding gubernatorial elections in 2023; however, Louisiana's gubernatorial election was decided on Oct. 14 in the statewide primary. Keep a close eye on these races:

Kentucky gubernatorial election
Mississippi gubernatorial election
Louisiana secretary of state election (general election on Nov. 18, 2023)
Pennsylvania Supreme Court election
Virginia Senate
Virginia House

Special U.S. House elections
Three special U.S. House elections have been scheduled in 2023. Two of them are scheduled in November, while the special election for Virginia's 4th Congressional District was held on Feb. 21 , 2023. The results of these races may foreshadow what is to come in the 2024 election season.

Local elections
Forty cities are holding mayoral elections in 2023, and more than 9,000 school districts across 35 states are holding school board elections.

It's not uncommon for off-cycle elections at the local level to be canceled because only one candidate is running. Ballotpedia has found this to be particularly true for local school board elections. The school board races we are watching blend hyperlocal issues with conflict issues playing out in national education debates.

One of the more interesting mayoral elections is in Wichita, Kansas. Two candidates are on the ballot - Lily Wu and incumbent Brandon Whipple. Although the race is officially nonpartisan, Wu—a former Republican—is a Libertarian. Whipple is a Democrat who defeated incumbent Mayor Jeff Longwell (R) in 2019.

For More Information
Ballotpedia's election teams will be publishing their reporting and analysis – and election night results – on these top 15 races and thousands more on Ballotpedia.org, in Ballotpedia's flagship newsletter, "The Daily Brew," and at its upcoming Election Analysis Hub.

About Ballotpedia
Ballotpedia–the encyclopedia of American politics–is the nation's most trusted source of unbiased information on politics, elections and policy. Founded in 2007, Ballotpedia has grown from a small group of dedicated volunteers working on a handful of ballot measures to an essential resource for voters, media and researchers. Ballotpedia is a nonprofit organization dedicated to serving the public interest in creating an educated, engaged electorate, and building a strong, healthy democracy. For free access to 420,000+ encyclopedic, professionally authored and curated articles, visit Ballotpedia.org.

^{^[1]} A trifecta is when one political party holds the governorship and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature.

SOURCE BALLOTPEDIA