AutoPacific Predicts Annual New Vehicle Sales With 99% Accuracy
NORTH TUSTIN, Calif., Jan. 14, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Automotive consulting firm AutoPacific today announced the results of its sales forecast accuracy for 2019, achieving 99% accuracy in the prediction of annual U.S. automotive sales for the second time in three years. AutoPacific's 5-year forecast first predicted 2019 annual sales in January of 2015, with expected sales of 16.93 million units, a mere 127,000 units short of the 17.055 million unit actual. During the January 2019 1-year forecast, the prediction was 16.85 million units. Both the 5-year and 1-year forecasts result in 99% accuracy, when compared to year-end actual sales. "As an automotive sales forecaster, we joke about wishing we had a crystal ball," says AutoPacific president George Peterson, "but after these results, many may think we actually have one."
Unique to AutoPacific's methodology is the ability to balance economic and industry factors with real-world insight gained from consumer data collected by AutoPacific's annual survey of new vehicle buyers, the New Vehicle Satisfaction Study. "AutoPacific is unique in the forecasting business in that we have actual voice-of-the-consumer input into our auto sales forecast," says Ed Kim, AutoPacific's vice president of industry analysis. "Through our annual New Vehicle Satisfaction Study and bi-monthly Fuel Price Impact Study, consumers tell us directly about their future vehicle purchase, giving us strong forecasting insights from those who count most: the people who buy new cars and trucks."
As such, consumers provide insights that strengthen AutoPacific's forecast at the vehicle segment level. In 2012, U.S. retail gasoline prices hit an average of $3.64 per gallon, the highest annual average ever recorded by the U.S. Department of Commerce. While much of the auto industry expected compact car demand to soar indefinitely due to higher fuel prices, AutoPacific's consumer data showed that consumers did not want to remain in compact cars for the long term. Says AutoPacific's Kim, "Thanks to those consumer insights, AutoPacific's five-year forecast in 2012 showed declining interest in compact cars despite highest-ever average national fuel prices at the time. We were able to forecast 2016 compact car volumes with 88% accuracy five years prior despite a very volatile market environment as the U.S. economy was starting to recover from the last recession."
AutoPacific's first quarter forecast for year-end sales has proven to be exceptionally accurate over the years. With forecast accuracy of 99% for 2019, AutoPacific achieves a 10-year average accuracy of 98%.
About AutoPacific
AutoPacific is a future-oriented automotive marketing research and product-consulting firm providing clients with industry intelligence and syndicated data. The firm, founded in 1986, also conducts extensive proprietary research and consulting for auto manufacturers, distributors, marketers and suppliers worldwide. Company headquarters and its state-of-the-art automotive research facility are in North Tustin, California, with affiliate offices in Michigan, Wisconsin and the Carolinas. Additional information can be found on AutoPacific's websites: http://www.autopacific.com and http://vehiclevoice.com.
SOURCE AutoPacific
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