April New-Car Sales To Fall 3 Percent Year-Over-Year; 2017 Expected To Be First Down Year Since 2009, According To Kelley Blue Book

Passat and Mazda6 Only Models in Mid-Size Car Segment to See Positive Growth

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Apr 25, 2017, 20:04 ET

IRVINE, Calif., April 25, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- New-vehicle sales are expected to decrease 3 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.45 million units in April 2017, resulting in an estimated 17.1 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book www.kbb.com, the vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry.

"After a weaker-than-expected March, it's becoming more likely that 2017 will be the first down year for the industry since 2009," said Tim Fleming, analyst for Kelley Blue Book. "Kelley Blue Book expects April to continue this downward trend, however the SAAR should bounce back to approximately 17.1 million as a result of one less selling day. Beyond April, we will continue to closely monitor still high levels of inventory and elevated incentive spending by manufacturers, both of which are signs of overproduction following last year's sales peak."

After a record year of sales in 2016 and seven consecutive year-over-year sales increases, Kelley Blue Book's forecast for 2017 calls for sales in the range of 16.8 million to 17.3 million units, which represents a 1 to 4 percent decrease from last year.

Key Highlights for Estimated April 2017 Sales Forecast:

In April, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,445,000 units, down 3 percent compared to April 2016 and down 7 percent from March 2017.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for April 2017 is estimated to be 17.1 million, down from 17.3 million in April 2016 and up from 16.5 million in March 2017.
Retail sales are expected to account for 79.2 percent of volume in April 2017, slightly up from 79.0 percent in April 2016.

Subaru Expected to Set Monthly Record Amidst Industry Declines; Fiat Chrysler to Post Greatest Declines in April 2017

While most manufacturers will likely report declines in April, Subaru is poised to set another monthly record. The recently redesigned Impreza is leading the way for the automaker, at a time when most cars are struggling in the market. To help achieve this growth, Subaru is boosting its incentive spending, but the manufacturer still maintains the lowest incentive levels in the industry.

Fiat Chrysler could see one of the greatest sales declines of all major manufacturers at a projected volume loss of 6 percent. The Jeep brand, now the highest volume brand for FCA, has faltered as of late and needs a solid launch for the new Compass, which recently hit dealerships. April looks to be a down month for Jeep and FCA's overall SUV lineup, even as SUV sales are generally faring well across the industry.

	Sales Volume ¹			Market Share ²
Manufacturer	Apr-17	Apr-16	YOY %	Apr-17	Apr-16	YOY %
General Motors (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	258,000	259,557	-0.6%	17.9%	17.4%	0.5%
Ford Motor Company (Ford, Lincoln)	217,000	229,739	-5.5%	15.0%	15.4%	-0.4%
Toyota Motor Company (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	201,000	211,125	-4.8%	13.9%	14.2%	-0.2%
Fiat Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, FIAT, Jeep, RAM)	178,000	189,005	-5.8%	12.3%	12.7%	-0.4%
American Honda (Acura, Honda)	142,000	148,829	-4.6%	9.8%	10.0%	-0.1%
Nissan North America (Infiniti, Nissan)	123,000	123,861	-0.7%	8.5%	8.3%	0.2%
Hyundai-Kia	113,000	118,721	-4.8%	7.8%	8.0%	-0.1%
Subaru of America	53,000	50,380	5.2%	3.7%	3.4%	0.3%
Volkswagen Group (Audi, Volkswagen, Porsche)	50,500	50,323	0.4%	3.5%	3.4%	0.1%
Total ³	1,445,000	1,491,891	-3.1%	-	-	-
¹Historical data from OEM sales announcements
² Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
³ Includes brands not shown

Sport Utilities Continue to Outpace All Segments; Mid-Size Cars Will Continue to See Poor Performance Throughout the Year

Sport utilities continue to dominate sales growth in the industry, and this month, analysts expect the mid-size SUV segment to see the highest growth at an estimated 8 percent increase. Mid-size SUVs appear to have the largest impact in swaying consumers from buying mid-size cars and minivans, both of which are down 20 percent this year.

"Mid-size cars continue to endure another poor month, and Kelley Blue Book anticipates the segment's market share will fall nearly two percentage points," said Fleming. "Just two of the twelve models in the segment – the Passat and the Mazda6 – have seen positive growth so far this year. Incentive spending for mid-size cars still remains high, despite the contraction in volume, which suggests further weakness may still lie ahead."

	Sales Volume ¹			Market Share
Segment	Apr-17	Apr-16	YOY %	Apr-17	Apr-16	YOY %
Compact SUV/Crossover	243,000	242,152	0.4%	16.8%	16.2%	0.6%
Full-Size Pickup Truck	190,000	192,828	-1.5%	13.1%	12.9%	0.2%
Compact Car	187,000	196,840	-5.0%	12.9%	13.2%	-0.3%
Mid-Size SUV/Crossover	182,000	168,233	8.2%	12.6%	11.3%	1.3%
Mid-Size Car	152,000	184,567	-17.6%	10.5%	12.4%	-1.9%
Total ²	1,445,000	1,491,891	-3.1%	-	-	-
¹ Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
² Includes segments not shown

There are 26 sales days in April 2017, compared to 27 sales days in April 2016. All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.

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About Kelley Blue Book (https://www.kbb.com/)
Founded in 1926, Kelley Blue Book, The Trusted Resource®, is the vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry. Each week the company provides the most market-reflective values in the industry on its top-rated website KBB.com, including its famous Blue Book® Trade-In Values and Fair Purchase Price, which reports what others are paying for new and used cars this week. The company also provides vehicle pricing and values through various products and services available to car dealers, auto manufacturers, finance and insurance companies, and governmental agencies. Kelley Blue Book Co., Inc. is a Cox Automotive brand.

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