NEW YORK, Sept. 28 /PRNewswire/ -- The primaries are over and the sprint is on for the final six weeks of campaigning before Election Day 2010. If the election for the House of Representatives were held today, two in five registered voters (40%) would vote for the Democratic candidate and 36% would vote for the Republican candidate with one in five (19%) not at all sure.
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MIDTERM ELECTIONS – TWO-PARTY RACE |
||
Total |
||
% |
||
Democratic candidate |
40 |
|
Republican candidate |
36 |
|
Other |
5 |
|
Not at all sure |
19 |
|
These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,620 adults surveyed online between September 14 and 20, 2010 by Harris Interactive.
The parties are mostly holding their bases with voters, as 84% of Republicans are voting for their party's candidate and 81% of Democrats say they are voting for their candidate. However, Independents are favoring Republicans, as 35% would vote for that party's candidate for Congress and 23% would vote for the Democratic candidate, while one-quarter of Independents (27%) are still not at all sure for whom they would vote.
MIDTERM ELECTIONS – TWO-PARTY RACE |
||||
Political Party |
||||
Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
||
% |
% |
% |
||
Democratic candidate |
2 |
81 |
23 |
|
Republican candidate |
84 |
4 |
35 |
|
Other |
2 |
1 |
14 |
|
Not at all sure |
12 |
14 |
27 |
|
Among those registered voters who say they are absolutely certain to vote this November, 43% would vote for the Republican candidate, 41% for the Democratic candidate and 12% are not at all sure. The Republicans have a larger advantage when it comes to interest in the election. Almost half (48%) of those registered voters who are extremely or very interested in the election say they would vote for the Republican candidate while 38% would vote for the Democratic candidate.
MIDTERM ELECTIONS – TWO-PARTY RACE |
||||
Voting Intention |
||||
Absolutely |
Absolutely/Very |
Probably |
||
% |
% |
% |
||
Democratic candidate |
41 |
40 |
40 |
|
Republican candidate |
43 |
41 |
38 |
|
Other |
4 |
4 |
5 |
|
Not at all sure |
12 |
14 |
17 |
|
Adding in a Tea Party Candidate
If there is a third candidate in the race, representing the Tea Party, Democrats can breathe a small sigh of relief. Among registered voters, 41% would vote for the Democratic candidate, 23% would vote for the Republican, 13% would vote for the Tea Party candidate and 23% are still not at all sure. Among those voters who say they are absolutely certain to vote, 42% would vote Democrat, 26% would vote Republican, 17% would vote for the Tea Party candidate and 15% are not at all sure.
MIDTERM ELECTIONS – THREE-PARTY RACE |
||
Total |
||
% |
||
Democratic candidate |
41 |
|
Republican candidate |
23 |
|
Tea Party candidate |
13 |
|
Not at all sure |
23 |
|
Looking at it by party, Democrats continue to vote for their party's candidate, as 80% would vote for the Democrat in the race. Republicans, Independents and Tea Party supporters all split their votes. Among Republican voters, three in five (59%) would vote Republican and one in five (21%) would vote for the Tea Party candidate, with 18% not at all sure. Among Independents, 27% would vote for the Democratic candidate, 21% would vote for the Tea Party candidate, 18% would vote for the Republican candidate and over one-third (35%) are not at all sure for whom they would vote. It is just as divided for Tea Party supporters with 13% voting for the Democratic candidate, 36% voting Republican, 31% voting for the Tea Party candidate and 20% who say they are still not at all sure.
MIDTERM ELECTIONS – THREE-PARTY RACE |
||||
Political Party |
||||
Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
||
% |
% |
% |
||
Democratic candidate |
2 |
80 |
27 |
|
Republican candidate |
59 |
3 |
18 |
|
Tea Party candidate |
21 |
2 |
21 |
|
Not at all sure |
18 |
14 |
35 |
|
So What?
Currently, Americans don't think Congress is doing a good job. Almost nine in ten (87%) give Congress negative ratings while just 13% give it positive ones. What remains to be seen on November 2nd is if voters are mainly unhappy with Democrats - after all, they are the ones in power, or with all incumbents. Seeing so many incumbents defeated in primaries, as well as seeing establishment candidates lose, as well, makes it seem as if these midterm elections are a complete game-changer. Of course, since Democrats are in power, they may suffer more losses, but it would not be a surprise to see unexpected Republicans lose, too. The morning of November 3rd should provide a very interesting post-mortem to this campaign season.
TABLE 1 Base: U.S. adults registered to vote |
|||||||
Total |
Political Party |
Tea Party |
|||||
Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Supporter |
Member |
|||
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
Democratic candidate |
40 |
2 |
81 |
23 |
16 |
6 |
|
Republican candidate |
36 |
84 |
4 |
35 |
66 |
82 |
|
Other |
5 |
2 |
1 |
14 |
6 |
6 |
|
Not at all sure |
19 |
12 |
14 |
27 |
12 |
7 |
|
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding |
|||||||
TABLE 1B Base: U.S. adults registered to vote |
|||||||||
Total |
Voting Interest |
Voting Intention |
|||||||
Extremely/ |
Interested |
Not |
Absolutely |
Absolutely/Very |
Probably |
Will |
|||
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
Democratic candidate |
40 |
38 |
39 |
34 |
41 |
40 |
40 |
43 |
|
Republican candidate |
36 |
48 |
43 |
12 |
43 |
41 |
38 |
10 |
|
Other |
5 |
4 |
4 |
9 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
|
Not at all sure |
19 |
10 |
14 |
45 |
12 |
14 |
17 |
41 |
|
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding |
|||||||||
TABLE 2 Base: U.S. adults registered to vote |
|||||||
Total |
Political Party |
Tea Party |
|||||
Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Supporter |
Member |
|||
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
Democratic candidate |
41 |
2 |
80 |
27 |
13 |
7 |
|
Republican candidate |
23 |
59 |
3 |
18 |
36 |
27 |
|
Tea Party candidate |
13 |
21 |
2 |
21 |
31 |
55 |
|
Not at all sure |
23 |
18 |
14 |
35 |
20 |
11 |
|
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding |
|||||||
TABLE 2B Base: U.S. adults registered to vote |
|||||||||
Total |
Voting Interest |
Voting Intention |
|||||||
Extremely/ |
Interested |
Not |
Absolutely |
Absolutely/ |
Probably |
Will |
|||
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|||
Democratic candidate |
41 |
40 |
40 |
30 |
42 |
41 |
41 |
37 |
|
Republican candidate |
23 |
29 |
26 |
12 |
26 |
25 |
24 |
10 |
|
Tea Party candidate |
13 |
20 |
18 |
* |
17 |
16 |
14 |
2 |
|
Not at all sure |
23 |
11 |
16 |
58 |
15 |
17 |
20 |
51 |
|
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; * indicates less than 0.5% |
|||||||||
TABLE 3 Base: All U.S. adults |
|||||
Total |
Political Party |
||||
Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
|||
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
POSITIVE |
13 |
4 |
24 |
7 |
|
Excellent |
2 |
1 |
5 |
1 |
|
Pretty good |
10 |
4 |
19 |
6 |
|
NEGATIVE |
87 |
96 |
76 |
93 |
|
Only fair |
38 |
25 |
45 |
39 |
|
Poor |
49 |
71 |
31 |
54 |
|
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding |
|||||
TABLE 4 Base: All U.S. adults |
||||
TREND |
Positive* |
Negative** |
||
% |
% |
|||
2010 |
September |
13 |
87 |
|
August |
15 |
85 |
||
June |
14 |
86 |
||
May |
15 |
85 |
||
April |
16 |
84 |
||
March |
10 |
90 |
||
Jan. |
16 |
84 |
||
2009 |
Dec. |
17 |
83 |
|
Oct. |
16 |
84 |
||
Sept. |
19 |
81 |
||
Aug. |
22 |
78 |
||
June |
25 |
75 |
||
March |
29 |
71 |
||
2008 |
October |
10 |
86 |
|
August |
18 |
77 |
||
June |
13 |
83 |
||
February |
20 |
76 |
||
2007 |
December |
17 |
79 |
|
October |
20 |
77 |
||
April |
27 |
69 |
||
February |
33 |
62 |
||
2006 |
September |
24 |
73 |
|
May |
18 |
80 |
||
February |
25 |
71 |
||
January |
25 |
72 |
||
*Positive = excellent or pretty good. **Negative = only fair or poor. Note: Prior to March, 2009, this question was asked by telephone. |
||||
TABLE 5 Base: All U.S. adults |
|||||||
Total |
Political Party |
Tea Party |
|||||
Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Supporter |
Member |
|||
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
Will Vote |
82 |
91 |
85 |
80 |
93 |
98 |
|
Absolutely certain I will vote |
56 |
68 |
59 |
51 |
71 |
83 |
|
Very certain I will vote |
13 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
8 |
|
I probably will vote |
13 |
10 |
13 |
16 |
10 |
7 |
|
Will Not Vote |
11 |
7 |
9 |
11 |
5 |
2 |
|
I probably will not vote |
6 |
4 |
6 |
6 |
3 |
- |
|
I am certain I will not vote |
5 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
2 |
2 |
|
Not sure if I will vote |
7 |
3 |
6 |
9 |
2 |
* |
|
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding "*" indicates less than 0.5%; "- " indicates no response |
|||||||
TABLE 6 Base: All U.S. adults |
|||||||
Total |
Political Party |
Tea Party |
|||||
Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Supporter |
Member |
|||
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
Interested |
65 |
78 |
64 |
63 |
83 |
95 |
|
Extremely interested |
27 |
38 |
25 |
23 |
42 |
58 |
|
Somewhat interested |
19 |
23 |
19 |
19 |
22 |
23 |
|
Interested |
19 |
17 |
20 |
21 |
19 |
14 |
|
Not Interested |
35 |
22 |
36 |
37 |
17 |
5 |
|
Somewhat interested |
22 |
15 |
24 |
24 |
14 |
5 |
|
Not interested at all |
13 |
7 |
12 |
13 |
3 |
* |
|
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; * indicates less than 0.5% |
|||||||
TABLE 7 Base: All U.S. adults |
||||||
March |
May |
June |
August |
September |
||
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
Familiar (NET) |
76 |
85 |
86 |
86 |
87 |
|
Very familiar |
15 |
22 |
20 |
20 |
23 |
|
Somewhat familiar |
39 |
44 |
48 |
44 |
45 |
|
Not that familiar |
22 |
19 |
18 |
22 |
19 |
|
Not familiar (NET) |
24 |
15 |
14 |
14 |
13 |
|
Not at all familiar |
16 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
|
Never heard of |
8 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
|
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding |
||||||
TABLE 8 Base: All U.S. adults |
|||||||||
March |
May |
June |
Aug |
Sept |
Political Party |
||||
Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
|||||||
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
Support (NET) |
33 |
38 |
37 |
38 |
39 |
68 |
18 |
43 |
|
Strongly support |
14 |
18 |
16 |
15 |
15 |
28 |
7 |
16 |
|
Somewhat support |
19 |
20 |
22 |
23 |
23 |
40 |
11 |
27 |
|
Oppose (NET) |
23 |
30 |
31 |
29 |
31 |
6 |
52 |
28 |
|
Somewhat oppose |
9 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
14 |
5 |
21 |
15 |
|
Strongly oppose |
14 |
19 |
19 |
18 |
17 |
1 |
32 |
14 |
|
Not at all sure |
20 |
17 |
17 |
19 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
20 |
|
Not asked/Not familiar at all/Never heard of |
24 |
15 |
14 |
14 |
13 |
11 |
13 |
9 |
|
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding |
|||||||||
TABLE 9 Base: All U.S. adults |
||||||||
May |
June |
Aug |
Sept |
Political Party |
||||
Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
||||||
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
Yes |
10 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
13 |
2 |
7 |
|
No |
75 |
77 |
79 |
80 |
77 |
85 |
84 |
|
Not asked/Not familiar at all/ Never heard of |
15 |
14 |
14 |
13 |
11 |
13 |
9 |
|
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding |
||||||||
Methodology
This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between September 14 to 20, 2010 among 2,620 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.
All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.
Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.
J38847
Q1215, 1220, 1225, 1230, 1235, 1240, 1245, 1250
The Harris Poll® #112, September 28, 2010
By Regina A. Corso, SVP, Harris Poll, Public Relations and Youth Research, Harris Interactive
About Harris Interactive
Harris Interactive is one of the world's leading custom market research firms, leveraging research, technology, and business acumen to transform relevant insight into actionable foresight. Known widely for the Harris Poll and for pioneering innovative research methodologies, Harris offers expertise in a wide range of industries including healthcare, technology, public affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial services, insurance, media, retail, restaurant, and consumer package goods. Serving clients in over 215 countries and territories through our North American, European, and Asian offices and a network of independent market research firms, Harris specializes in delivering research solutions that help us – and our clients – stay ahead of what's next. For more information, please visit www.harrisinteractive.com.
Press Contact: |
|
Corporate Communications |
|
Harris Interactive |
|
212-539-9600 |
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SOURCE Harris Interactive
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