ALG Projects Automakers to Reach $50 billion in Revenue in June

Average transaction prices expected to rise 0.7 percent

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Jul 03, 2018, 07:00 ET

SANTA MONICA, Calif., July 3, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach $50 billion for the month of June, up 2.2 percent from a year ago.

ALG expects a gain of $1 billion in revenue for automakers versus 2017 partially driven by one more selling day in June 2018. Additionally, incentive spending is projected to increase 4.6 percent year over year.

"ATP is growing in pure dollar terms at a higher rate than incentive spending; however, incentive spending as a percentage of ATP is increasing as automakers chase share in a resilient high sales environment," said Eric Lyman, ALG's chief industry analyst. "The key storyline for June is the diverging paths of FCA and GM. While FCA sees positive ATP growth fueled by crossovers and a new Ram 1500, GM is experiencing a year over year decline in the same metric ahead of the launch of an all new fullsize pickup truck portfolio."

ALG estimates ATP for a new light vehicle was $33,148 in June, up 0.7 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit grew by $167 to $3,779. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP is expected to be 11.4 percent, up from 11 percent a year ago.

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer	June 2018 Forecast	June 2017	May 2018	YOY	MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini)	$51,753	$51,733	$51,865	0.0%	-0.2%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)	$58,721	$58,886	$58,177	-0.3%	0.9%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)	$34,390	$33,216	$33,950	3.5%	1.3%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)	$36,325	$35,701	$36,375	1.7%	-0.1%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	$36,552	$37,352	$36,537	-2.1%	0.0%
Honda (Acura, Honda)	$27,877	$27,672	$27,652	0.7%	0.8%
Hyundai	$22,130	$22,636	$22,259	-2.2%	-0.6%
Kia	$22,590	$22,425	$22,551	0.7%	0.2%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)	$27,419	$27,310	$27,593	0.4%	-0.6%
Subaru	$27,704	$27,498	$27,463	0.7%	0.9%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	$31,646	$30,917	$31,786	2.4%	-0.4%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)	$35,654	$35,641	$35,365	0.0%	0.8%
Industry	$33,148	$32,931	$32,993	0.7%	0.5%

Incentive per Unit Spending

Manufacturer	June 2018 Forecast	June 2017	May 2018	YOY	MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini)	$5,585	$4,564	$5,609	22.4%	-0.4%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)	$5,759	$5,057	$6,055	13.9%	-4.9%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)	$4,526	$4,387	$4,472	3.2%	1.2%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)	$4,400	$4,312	$4,345	2.1%	1.3%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	$5,256	$4,444	$5,330	18.3%	-1.4%
Honda (Acura, Honda)	$1,940	$2,007	$1,883	-3.3%	3.0%
Hyundai	$2,809	$3,192	$2,807	-12.0%	0.1%
Kia	$3,834	$3,437	$3,833	11.6%	0.0%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)	$3,703	$4,086	$3,665	-9.4%	1.0%
Subaru	$1,499	$957	$1,464	56.6%	2.4%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	$2,288	$2,669	$2,222	-14.3%	3.0%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)	$3,828	$3,149	$3,926	21.6%	-2.5%
Industry	$3,779	$3,612	$3,738	4.6%	1.1%

Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP

Manufacturer	June 2018 Forecast	June 2017	May 2018	YOY	MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini)	10.8%	8.8%	10.8%	22.3%	-0.2%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)	9.8%	8.6%	10.4%	14.2%	-5.8%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)	13.2%	13.2%	13.2%	-0.4%	-0.1%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)	12.1%	12.1%	11.9%	0.3%	1.4%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	14.4%	11.9%	14.6%	20.8%	-1.4%
Honda (Acura, Honda)	7.0%	7.3%	6.8%	-4.1%	2.2%
Hyundai	12.7%	14.1%	12.6%	-10.0%	0.7%
Kia	17.0%	15.3%	17.0%	10.7%	-0.1%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)	13.5%	15.0%	13.3%	-9.7%	1.7%
Subaru	5.4%	3.5%	5.3%	55.4%	1.5%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	7.2%	8.6%	7.0%	-16.2%	3.4%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)	10.7%	8.8%	11.1%	21.5%	-3.3%
Industry	11.4%	11.0%	11.3%	3.9%	0.6%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)

About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.

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SOURCE ALG