ALG finds Automakers Poised to Reach $45 Billion in Revenue in April

Average transaction prices likely to rise 2.7 percent

News provided by

May 01, 2018, 07:00 ET

SANTA MONICA, Calif., May 1, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach $45 billion for the month of April, down 3.8 percent from a year ago with currently 24 selling days compared to 26 in April 2017.

ALG expects a loss of $1.7 billion in revenue for automakers versus 2017. Additionally, incentive spending is projected to increase 8.5 percent year over year and decrease 1.6 percent month over month.

"Cooling incentives on a month over month basis and the continued rise in Average Transaction Prices are putting the auto industry on track for another year of solid performance metrics," said Eric Lyman, ALG's chief industry analyst. "Automakers are becoming increasingly dependent on light trucks, as evidenced by Ford's recent announcement to pull all but two passenger cars from their lineup, which bolsters revenue and ATPs across the industry. Additionally, the impact of higher interest rates and economic volatility have not negatively impacted robust ATPs."

ALG estimates ATP for a new light vehicle was $33,515 in April, up 2.7 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit grew by $293 to $3,736. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP is expected to be 11.1 percent, up from 10.5 percent from a year ago.

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer	Apr. 2018 Forecast	Apr. 2017	Mar. 2018	YOY	MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini)	$52,576	$52,103	$52,147	0.9%	0.8%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)	$61,650	$61,679	$61,582	0.0%	0.1%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)	$34,281	$32,931	$33,957	4.1%	1.0%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)	$37,032	$35,751	$37,149	3.6%	-0.3%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	$36,254	$36,571	$34,976	-0.9%	3.7%
Honda (Acura, Honda)	$27,745	$27,182	$27,857	2.1%	-0.4%
Hyundai	$22,442	$22,545	$22,571	-0.5%	-0.6%
Kia	$22,931	$22,699	$22,999	1.0%	-0.3%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)	$27,256	$27,359	$27,634	-0.4%	-1.4%
Subaru	$27,814	$27,764	$27,921	0.2%	-0.4%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	$32,107	$31,064	$32,119	3.4%	0.0%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)	$36,570	$34,187	$35,888	7.0%	1.9%
Industry	$33,515	$32,638	$33,207	2.7%	0.9%

Incentive per Unit Spending

Manufacturer	Apr. 2018 Forecast	Apr. 2017	Mar. 2018	YOY	MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini)	$5,484	$4,424	$5,595	23.9%	-2.0%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)	$4,691	$4,557	$4,775	2.9%	-1.8%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)	$4,685	$4,359	$4,579	7.5%	2.3%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)	$4,183	$4,114	$4,167	1.7%	0.4%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	$5,489	$4,238	$5,667	29.5%	-3.1%
Honda (Acura, Honda)	$1,652	$1,809	$1,556	-8.7%	6.1%
Hyundai	$2,961	$3,135	$2,875	-5.5%	3.0%
Kia	$3,894	$3,247	$3,858	19.9%	0.9%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)	$3,788	$3,903	$3,772	-2.9%	0.4%
Subaru	$1,172	$957	$1,199	22.4%	-2.3%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	$2,291	$2,346	$2,347	-2.4%	-2.4%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)	$3,537	$4,008	$3,618	-11.7%	-2.2%
Industry	$3,736	$3,443	$3,795	8.5%	-1.6%

Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP

Manufacturer	Apr. 2018 Forecast	Apr. 2017	Mar. 2018	YOY	MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini)	10.4%	8.5%	10.7%	22.8%	-2.8%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)	7.6%	7.4%	7.8%	3.0%	-1.9%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)	13.7%	13.2%	13.5%	3.2%	1.4%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)	11.3%	11.5%	11.2%	-1.8%	0.7%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	15.1%	11.6%	16.2%	30.7%	-6.5%
Honda (Acura, Honda)	6.0%	6.7%	5.6%	-10.5%	6.6%
Hyundai	13.2%	13.9%	12.7%	-5.1%	3.6%
Kia	17.0%	14.3%	16.8%	18.7%	1.2%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)	13.9%	14.3%	13.7%	-2.6%	1.8%
Subaru	4.2%	3.4%	4.3%	22.2%	-1.9%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	7.1%	7.6%	7.3%	-5.5%	-2.3%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)	9.7%	11.7%	10.1%	-17.5%	-4.1%
Industry	11.1%	10.5%	11.4%	5.7%	-2.5%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)

About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.

Contact
[email protected]
Veronica Cardenas
424-258-8427
[email protected]

SOURCE ALG