ALG Finds Automakers Expected to Reach $47 Billion in Revenue in November

Average transaction prices expected to rise 1.9 percent

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Dec 01, 2017, 06:00 ET

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Dec. 1, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach $47 billion for the month of November, up 3.4 percent from a year ago.

ALG expects a gain of 1.5 billion in revenue for automakers versus November 2016. Additionally, incentive spending is projected to increase 4.6 percent.

"Automakers continue to experience growing average transaction prices, fueling robust revenues from new vehicle sales," said Eric Lyman, ALG's chief industry analyst. "However, the continued use of elevated incentives creates a sobering tone to the celebration. The increase in incentives may also be an indication that vehicle replacement demand from Hurricane Harvey and Irma has largely been fulfilled."

ALG estimates ATP for a new light vehicle was $33,660 in November, up 1.9 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit grew by $162 to $3,692. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP is expected to be 11 percent, up from 10.7 percent a year ago.

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer	Nov. 2017 Forecast	Nov. 2016	Oct. 2017	YOY	MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini)	$52,376	$50,628	$53,516	3.5%	-2.1%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)	$62,261	$58,246	$62,468	6.9%	-0.3%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)	$34,193	$33,120	$33,608	3.2%	1.7%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)	$36,494	$35,525	$36,183	2.7%	0.9%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	$37,521	$37,157	$37,381	1.0%	0.4%
Honda (Acura, Honda)	$27,812	$27,132	$27,544	2.5%	1.0%
Hyundai	$22,020	$22,713	$22,864	-3.0%	-3.7%
Kia	$21,621	$22,541	$21,914	-4.1%	-1.3%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)	$27,861	$27,955	$27,145	-0.3%	2.6%
Subaru	$27,890	$28,335	$28,118	-1.6%	-0.8%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	$32,246	$31,989	$32,042	0.8%	0.6%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)	$35,254	$33,575	$34,286	5.0%	2.8%
Industry	$33,660	$33,048	$33,395	1.9%	0.8%

Incentive per Unit Spending

Manufacturer	Nov. 2017 Forecast	Nov. 2016	Oct. 2017	YOY	MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini)	$5,031	$6,450	$5,254	-22.0%	-4.2%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)	$4,844	$4,767	$4,967	1.6%	-2.5%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)	$4,516	$4,160	$4,575	8.6%	-1.3%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)	$4,274	$4,060	$4,027	5.3%	6.1%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	$4,785	$4,469	$5,221	7.1%	-8.3%
Honda (Acura, Honda)	$1,933	$1,885	$1,987	2.6%	-2.7%
Hyundai	$2,977	$2,466	$2,850	20.7%	4.4%
Kia	$3,612	$3,133	$3,883	15.3%	-7.0%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)	$4,079	$4,243	$4,448	-3.9%	-8.3%
Subaru	$1,041	$1,097	$1,077	-5.1%	-3.4%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	$2,651	$2,467	$2,494	7.5%	6.3%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)	$3,551	$3,891	$3,524	-8.7%	0.8%
Industry	$3,692	$3,530	$3,773	4.6%	-2.1%

Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP

Manufacturer	Nov. 2017 Forecast		Nov. 2016	Oct. 2017	YOY	MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini)	9.6%	12.7%		9.8%	-24.6%	-2.2%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)	7.8%	8.2%		8.0%	-4.9%	-2.1%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)	13.2%	12.6%		13.6%	5.2%	-3.0%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)	11.7%	11.4%		11.1%	2.5%	5.2%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	12.8%	12.0%		14.0%	6.0%	-8.7%
Honda (Acura, Honda)	7.0%	6.9%		7.2%	0.1%	-3.6%
Hyundai	13.5%	10.9%		12.5%	24.5%	8.4%
Kia	16.7%	13.9%		17.7%	20.2%	-5.7%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)	14.6%	15.2%		16.4%	-3.6%	-10.7%
Subaru	3.7%	3.9%		3.8%	-3.6%	-2.6%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	8.2%	7.7%		7.8%	6.6%	5.6%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)	10.1%	11.6%		10.3%	-13.1%	-2.0%
Industry	11.0%	10.7%		11.3%	2.7%	-2.9%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)

About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.

SOURCE ALG