ALG Estimates Automakers to Reach $47 Billion in Revenue in September

Average transaction prices expected to rise 2.3 percent

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Oct 02, 2018, 07:00 ET

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Oct. 2, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach $47 billion for the month of September, down 5.1 percent from a year ago.

ALG expects a decrease of $2.5 billion in revenue for automakers partially driven by one less selling day this year. Additionally, incentive spending is projected to decrease 2.6 percent year over year.

"The year-over-year ATP growth rate at the industry level remains strong in combination with an expected decrease in overall incentive spending," said Oliver Strauss, ALG's Chief Economist. "Robust new industry sales, a slight decline in incentive spending and growing transaction prices are all indicators pointing to a resilient industry."

ALG estimates ATP for a new light vehicle was $33,436 in September, up 2.3 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit decreased by $100 to $3,785. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP is expected to be 11.3 percent, down from 11.9 percent a year ago.

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer	September 2018 Forecast	September 2017	August 2018	YOY	MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini)	$51,736	$52,576	$51,482	-1.6%	0.5%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)	$55,532	$59,154	$56,326	-6.1%	-1.4%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)	$34,645	$33,448	$34,591	3.6%	0.2%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)	$37,499	$35,595	$37,207	5.4%	0.8%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	$37,276	$35,986	$37,213	3.6%	0.2%
Honda (Acura, Honda)	$28,680	$27,288	$28,554	5.1%	0.4%
Hyundai	$22,239	$22,865	$22,251	-2.7%	0.0%
Kia	$22,450	$21,718	$22,556	3.4%	-0.5%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)	$27,093	$27,348	$27,421	-0.9%	-1.2%
Subaru	$29,199	$28,123	$28,581	3.8%	2.2%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	$31,946	$31,010	$31,887	3.0%	0.2%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)	$34,305	$34,717	$34,916	-1.2%	-1.7%
Industry	$33,436	$32,678	$33,301	2.3%	0.4%

Incentive per Unit Spending

Manufacturer	September 2018 Forecast	September 2017	August 2018	YOY	MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini)	$5,431	$5,273	$5,405	3.0%	0.5%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)	$5,775	$5,002	$5,855	15.5%	-1.4%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)	$4,655	$4,635	$4,594	0.5%	1.3%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)	$4,784	$4,473	$4,736	7.0%	1.0%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	$4,716	$5,215	$4,688	-9.6%	0.6%
Honda (Acura, Honda)	$1,980	$1,958	$1,947	1.1%	1.7%
Hyundai	$2,984	$2,843	$2,962	5.0%	0.8%
Kia	$3,973	$3,883	$3,966	2.3%	0.2%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)	$4,271	$4,471	$4,365	-4.5%	-2.2%
Subaru	$1,548	$1,077	$1,507	43.7%	2.7%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	$2,432	$2,783	$2,568	-12.6%	-5.3%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)	$3,762	$3,657	$3,747	2.9%	0.4%
Industry	$3,785	$3,885	$3,758	-2.6%	0.7%

Note: industry and OEM level incentive spending is calculated on a sales-weighted basis

Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP

Manufacturer	September 2018 Forecast	September 2017	August 2018	YOY	MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini)	10.5%	10.0%	10.5%	4.7%	0.0%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)	10.4%	8.5%	10.4%	23.0%	0.1%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)	13.4%	13.9%	13.3%	-3.0%	1.2%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)	12.8%	12.6%	12.7%	1.5%	0.2%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	12.7%	14.5%	12.6%	-12.7%	0.4%
Honda (Acura, Honda)	6.9%	7.2%	6.8%	-3.8%	1.2%
Hyundai	13.4%	12.4%	13.3%	7.9%	0.8%
Kia	17.7%	17.9%	17.6%	-1.0%	0.6%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)	15.8%	16.3%	15.9%	-3.6%	-1.0%
Subaru	5.3%	3.8%	5.3%	38.4%	0.5%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	7.6%	9.0%	8.1%	-15.2%	-5.5%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)	11.0%	10.5%	10.7%	4.1%	2.2%
Industry	11.3%	11.9%	11.3%	-4.8%	0.3%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)

About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.

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SOURCE ALG