Al-Qaeda, Non-Al-Qaeda Affiliated Jihadist Groups, Foreign Fighters in Syria and Growing Cyber Attacks Pose Serious Threats to US and Should Not Be Overlooked

New Report Finds ISIS is not the Primary Threat to the Homeland

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Sep 23, 2014, 11:00 ET

WASHINGTON, Sept. 23, 2014 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- A new report issued by the Bipartisan Policy Center's (BPC) Homeland Security Project today provides a comprehensive review of the many terrorist threats facing America. The report examines threats from ISIS, Al-Qaeda and other Jihadist groups, cybersecurity concerns and drone strikes and proliferation.

The report is authored by Peter Bergen, Director of the National Security Program at the New America Foundation, best-selling author of four books about al-Qaeda and a member of BPC's Homeland Security Project.

Bipartisan Policy Center Logo (PRNewsFoto/Bipartisan Policy Center) (PRNewsFoto/Bipartisan Policy Center)

Main Takeaways from the report include:

The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) will remain a pervasive threat:
The situation in Iraq has added to the regional chaos that was initiated by Syria's civil war. The conflict has the potential to spill over into other countries, such as Jordan and Lebanon, which would further destabilize the region. There is no short-term solution to the Syrian conflict, and the U.S. must be prepared to contain the fallout and prevent further escalation for years to come.
The threat from Al-Qaeda has been diffused since 9/11:
Thirteen years after 9/11, al-Qaeda has a presence in 16 countries, more countries than they did half of a decade ago. However, the terrorist group has not successfully conducted another attack inside the U.S., nor has it conducted any attacks in the West since the 2005 London bombings. Al-Qaeda's leadership has been devastated, and the organization has lost its sanctuary in Afghanistan. Facing destruction, the core al-Qaeda group in Pakistan lacks control over much of the al-Qaeda network and has few means to control the behavior of its affiliates, including ISIS, which was formally dismissed from the al-Qaeda network in early 2014.
Threats from Jihadist groups not affiliated with Al-Qaeda are growing:
Groups like Boko Haram, the Pakistani Taliban, the Haqqani Network, the Afghan Taliban, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Egyptian Jihadist Groups and Libyan Militias pose growing threats abroad.
Future wild cards, like the hostilities in Gaza, could change the nature of the threat:
A number of wild cards have the potential to cause important changes in the nature of the threats emanating from the jihadist network including: the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict and, in particular, the hostilities in Gaza; prison breaks from al-Qaeda members; the growing Sunni-Shia rift in the Middle East and South Asia; and the role social media plays in online radicalization.
Technology is creating new vulnerabilities in cyberspace:
Emerging technologies are opening up new vulnerabilities. In particular, advances in biological sciences and the diffusion of chemical weapons present several challenges, while crude forms of cyber attacks are increasingly available to terrorist groups. The U.S. will have to craft a strategy that accommodates the risks posed by these new technologies, without overhyping the threats they pose.
Drone strikes and drone proliferation will shape how we counter emerging threats:
The choices the United States makes regarding its use of drones for targeted killing operations and the rules that regulate such operations will shape the global environment in coming decades. According to a count by the New America Foundation, 80 countries have some form of drone technology. Already, other countries are considering the use of drones for targeted killing operations of their own.

The assessment was discussed during a panel hosted by BPC today. Watch the video of the panel of national security experts and download a copy of the report here. BPC's Homeland Security Project is co-chaired by 9/11 Commission co-chairs Tom Kean and Lee Hamilton.

About the Bipartisan Policy Center
Founded in 2007 by former Senate Majority Leaders Howard Baker, Tom Daschle, Bob Dole and George Mitchell, the Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) is a non-profit organization that drives principled solutions through rigorous analysis, reasoned negotiation and respectful dialogue. With projects in multiple issue areas, BPC combines politically balanced policymaking with strong, proactive advocacy and outreach. For more information, please visit www.bipartisanpolicy.org.

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SOURCE Bipartisan Policy Center