Activate Consulting Releases Annual Activate Outlook Report on the Future of Technology & Media in 2023

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Oct 26, 2022, 09:01 ET

Disruptive Trends in Gaming, Metaverse, Audio, Digital Fitness and Sports Betting Reshape the Years Ahead

SAN FRANCISCO and NEW YORK, Oct. 26, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Activate Consulting, the leading management consulting firm for technology, internet, media, entertainment, and sports businesses today released its annual Activate Technology and Media Outlook, a comprehensive report on the state of the internet, technology, media, and entertainment industries. The report, delivered during the Wall Street Journal Tech Live Conference by Activate Consulting CEO Michael J. Wolf, is available on the WSJ site and app as well as on www.activate.com/#outlook.

In this annual report, Activate Consulting focuses on topics such as the Attention Clock & Consumer Spend, the Metaverse, Gaming, Super Users, Sports and Sports Betting, Digital Fitness and more. The report is based on groundbreaking proprietary research.

The results prove the following trends throughout the industry including:

Global internet and media businesses will enjoy more than $400B growth dollars - from $2.3T to $2.7T between 2022 and 2026. Half of that growth will be from global advertising spend
Digital video consumption will be flat through 2026. In the U.S. YouTube has 229M viewers, Amazon Prime has 162M and Instagram comes in third with 126M viewers
Both Netflix and Disney+ will grow largely via international expansion with Disney+ forecast to have 264M subscribers by 2026 vs. Netflix growing to 258M globally
The top three movies streamed - Encanto, Turning Red and Sing 2 - drove 26% of all streaming time for movies in 2022. For series, originals outperformed acquired series by 60 to 40% respectively. Stranger Things, Ozark and NCIS were the top three series.
Domestic advertising revenues for the major streaming services will more than double to $16B between 2022 and 2026, with Netflix forecast to grow at a CAGR of 39% and Disney+ 25% CAGR
Social video consumption will grow from :47min in 2022 to nearly an hour (:59min) in 2026. TikTok users will grow from 1.5B globally in 2022 to 2B in 2026. YouTube will grow from 2.1B in 2022 to 2.4B in 2026. Instagram will grow from 1.3B to 1.5B in that timeframe.
Pay TV continues to drop sharply in the US - from 62% household penetration in 2020 to 53% in 2022 and 45% in 2026
Music: Significant growth in the global music industry will reach $94B in revenue by 2026, driven almost entirely by digital audio. That's up from $78.7B in 2021. 61% of music listeners use YouTube Music vs. 35% for both Spotify and Amazon Music, which are now neck and neck. TikTok users are huge drivers in music trends and consumption
The global video game market is expected to grow to nearly $220B by 2026, with over $50B generated in the U.S. There are 148M active gamers in the U.S. today.
Meta, Microsoft, Nintendo, Sony, Tencent and Valve have adopted a full-stack approach to build out capabilities in the gaming space. More gaming M&A is expected.
The global esports audience has surpassed half a billion viewers and will continue to grow to 722M viewers by 2026
NFT hype is over, with less than a third of U.S. adults aware of what an NFT is. Sales peaked in August 2021 at $6.2B and were just $1.1B a year later in August 2022. Post-hype, a new set of more tangible use cases rooted in established technology and media behaviors (e.g. commerce, social) should emerge. Moving forward, these use cases will focus on problems that NFTs have a strong rationale for solving, such as community building, rewarding loyal brand users, and legal automation for content, digital real estate and digital collectables. User rationale for purchasing NFTs has also changed, moving away from investment use cases and towards displaying and collecting
Global eCommerce will reach $9.4T in 2026, continuing to grow faster and add more absolute dollars than physical retail post-pandemic. China represents over 50% of total eCommerce sales worldwide vs 15% share of sales for the U.S.
Livestream ecommerce sales will grow from $5B in 2020 to $55B in 2026
Sports betting continues to surge in the U.S., with total wagers nearly doubling year-over-year to reach $47B in the first half of 2022. In Jan 2022, peak monthly wagers hit $9.8B in the U.S. alone. Total sports betting amount wagered will reach $210B by 2026 as sports betting becomes legal in a growing number of states
Health and fitness technology and services will reach a combined market value of $30B by 2026 and the next wave of consumer growth will come from diet, meditation, and sleep services/apps

"This year, the power shift between winners and losers became more pronounced across a range of sectors - from gaming and social media to global consumption of ecommerce," said Michael J. Wolf, Activate Consulting CEO and Co-Founder. "The forecasts shared today will profoundly impact technology and media industries as we approach 2023 and beyond."

About Activate Consulting

Activate Consulting (Activate) is a next generation management consulting firm focused on technology and media companies. Michael J. Wolf, the former President and COO at MTV Networks, founded the company in 2010. Activate works with CEOs and senior management teams to define strategies, drive innovation, and improve revenue performance in areas such as go-to-market strategy, pricing, consumer insight, and marketing. The firm is known for issuing its annual Activate Technology & Media Outlook report on the state of technology, media, and entertainment industries and is based in New York and San Francisco.

For more information, please visit www.activate.com.

SOURCE Activate