Women Usually Exceed Men in Voter Turnout; But Today, Men Have Higher Intentions to Vote
Among likely voters, Democrats are more likely than Republicans and Independents to be satisfied with the choices available to them for president
NEW YORK, Nov. 8, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- As Americans head to the polls today to elect our next president, The Harris Poll has continued to track self-reported voter intent and the latest poll – conducted last week between November 2nd and 4th – finds that the proportion of U.S. adults who say they plan to vote in the presidential election has held steady since July, with more than 4 in 5 Americans saying they will probably or definitely vote (84% in November, 84% in September/October, 86% in July).
These are some of the results of several Harris Polls conducted between July and November 2016. Complete results of this study can be found here.
Battle of the sexes
In both the July and September/October polls, men were significantly more likely than women – by 8 and 9 percentage points, respectively – to say they definitely plan to vote in the presidential election. Though the gap has narrowed in the latest poll conducted in early November, men remain more likely than women to definitely plan to vote (82% vs. 76%, respectively).
| TABLE 1 |
|||
| Voting Intent – TREND |
|||
| "Do you plan on voting in the 2016 Presidential election in November?" |
|||
| Base: All adults |
|||
| TREND |
Total Adults |
Total Males |
Total Females |
| % |
% |
% |
|
| November 2016 |
|||
| Likely Voters (NET) |
84 |
87 |
82 |
| Definite Voters |
79 |
82 |
76 |
| September/October 2016 |
|||
| Likely Voters (NET) |
84 |
88 |
80 |
| Definite Voters |
73 |
78 |
69 |
| July 2016 |
|||
| Likely Voters (NET) |
86 |
87 |
84 |
| Definite Voters |
75 |
79 |
71 |
Lukewarm on the choices
When looking at Americans as a whole, only about 2 in 5 are very or somewhat satisfied with the choices available to them for president. But a deeper dive into the data by political party affiliation reveals that, among likely voters (U.S. adults who say they will probably or definitely vote, regardless of their voter registration status at the time of the survey), Democrats are more likely to be satisfied with the available options than Republicans, or least of all, Independents.
| TABLE 2A |
||
| Satisfied with Choices Available for President – TREND |
||
| "How satisfied are you with the choices available to you for President?" |
||
| Base: All adults |
||
| Satisfied (NET) – TREND |
Total Adults |
Likely Voters |
| % |
% |
|
| November 2016 |
39% |
42% |
| September/October 2016 |
34% |
37% |
| July 2016 |
37% |
40% |
| TABLE 2B |
||||
| Satisfied with Choices Available for President – By Political Party Affiliation |
||||
| "How satisfied are you with the choices available to you for President?" |
||||
| Base: Likely voters |
||||
| November 2016 |
Likely Voters |
|||
| Total |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
| % |
% |
% |
% |
|
| Satisfied (NET) |
42% |
40% |
55% |
25% |
| Very Satisfied |
19% |
18% |
28% |
7% |
| Somewhat Satisfied |
23% |
22% |
27% |
17% |
| Not Satisfied (NET) |
57% |
58% |
43% |
74% |
| Not Very Satisfied |
24% |
21% |
22% |
30% |
| Not At All Satisfied |
33% |
37% |
21% |
44% |
| Not at all sure |
2% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
To see other recent Harris Polls, please visit our website, TheHarrisPoll.com
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Methodology
July
This Harris Poll was conducted online, in English, within the United States between July 14 and 27, 2016 among 2,463 adults aged 18+, along with representative oversamples of 485 Hispanic Americans (interviewed in English and Spanish) and 180 Asian Americans (interviewed in English). The total sample included 2,164 "likely voters" (U.S. adults who say they will probably or definitely vote, regardless of their voter registration status at the time of the survey).
September/October
This Harris Poll was conducted online, in English, within the United States between September 19 and October 3, 2016 among 2,223 adults aged 18+, along with representative oversamples of 441 Hispanic Americans (interviewed in English and Spanish) and 143 Asian Americans (interviewed in English). The total sample included 1,870 "likely voters."
November
This Harris Poll was conducted online, in English, within the United States between November 2 and 4, 2016 among 2,037 adults aged 18+. The total sample included 1,730 "likely voters."
Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.
All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, The Harris Poll avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.
Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Poll surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in our panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of The Harris Poll.
Product and brand names are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective owners.
The Harris Poll® #62, November 8, 2016
By Kathy Steinberg, Managing Editor, The Harris Poll
About The Harris Poll®
Begun in 1963, The Harris Poll is one of the longest running surveys measuring public opinion in the U.S. and is highly regarded throughout the world. The nationally representative polls, conducted primarily online, measure the knowledge, opinions, behaviors and motivations of the general public. New and trended polls on a wide variety of subjects including politics, the economy, healthcare, foreign affairs, science and technology, sports and entertainment, and lifestyles are published weekly. For more information, or to see other recent polls, please visit our new website, TheHarrisPoll.com.
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SOURCE The Harris Poll
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