U.S. Housing Market Short 3.8 Million New Homes

Realtor.com® sees opportunity for homebuilders; frustration over low inventory for buyers

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Jan 21, 2020, 09:00 ET

SANTA CLARA, Calif., Jan. 21, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- As the new decade begins with a strong economy and low interest rates, home buyers still face a big hurdle -- extremely low inventory. An analysis released today by realtor.com® found that the 5.9 million single family homes that were built between 2012 and 2019 are simply not enough to offset the 9.8 million new households formed during that time.

At the end of 2019, homebuilder confidence reached a two-decade high, driven in large part by robust economic growth. Single family home starts per 1,000 households grew from 4.6 in 2012 to 7.3 in 2019, taking the eight-year average to 6.2. And while that growth was needed, levels still remain well below the two-decade average, according to realtor.com®'s findings. Realtor.com® economists estimate that even with an above average pace of construction, it would take homebuilders four to five years to get back to equilibrium.

"Simply put, new home starts are not keeping pace with demand. Homebuilders have a mountain of opportunity, but a big hill to climb," said Javier Vivas, director of economic research, realtor.com®. "The current inventory crisis and the need for 3.8 million new homes means a nearly insatiable appetite from potential buyers, especially in the lower end of the market."

The 2008 financial crisis led home builders to become much more conservative -- building less and focusing on higher end homes with bigger margins. As such, the gap between inventory and demand is focused largely on entry-level and mid-range homes and is exaggerated by the fact that baby boomers are increasingly aging in place; not freeing up existing homes for new buyers to enter the market.

"Large populations of renters and well-qualified potential buyers with strong incomes are waiting in the wings. Assuming the economy avoids a full-on recession and rates remain low, the window for builders remains wide open. If builders can deliver homes at adequate price points, absorption will continue to strengthen through the first half of the decade," Vivas said.

Heading into the 2020s, growing demographics and strong economic fundamentals should continue to underpin home builder confidence. However, solving the home supply puzzle is more than just a game of volume, and timing can be tricky. On average, consumers need about two to three years of solid income and stability to save for a down payment. With today's strong economy and low likelihood of a downturn in the next few months, now may be the right time for builders to make a move, according to the report's findings.

"It's easy to understand why builders have been cautious in an effort to avoid overbuilding, but we believe that demand for new homes will remain strong, and homebuilders could represent a bright spot for housing in the decade ahead," Vivas said.

For more information, read the full report here.

About realtor.com®
Realtor.com®, The Home of Home Search℠, offers the most MLS-listed for-sale listings among national real estate portals, and access to information, tools and professional expertise that help people move confidently through every step of their home journey. Through its Opcity platform, realtor.com® uses data science and machine learning to connect consumers with a real estate professional based on their specific buying and selling needs. Realtor.com® pioneered the world of digital real estate 20 years ago, and today is a trusted resource for home buyers, sellers and dreamers by making all things home simple, efficient and enjoyable. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. under a perpetual license from the National Association of REALTORS®. For more information, visit realtor.com®.

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SOURCE realtor.com