Top Frontier Oil Countries: Potential, Exploration Opportunities and Risks

NEW YORK, July 7 /PRNewswire/ -- Reportlinker.com announces that a new market research report is available in its catalogue:

Top Frontier Oil Countries: Potential, exploration opportunities and risks

http://www.reportlinker.com/p0191956/Top-Frontier-Oil-Countries-Potential-exploration-opportunities-and-risks.html?d=CPDAIN58

Report overview

Economic growth in non-OECD countries, particularly in developing countries such as China and India, and a predicted increase in vehicle numbers to 2bn by 2030, are the chief factors in forecast growth in global energy demand, forecast to grow by 40% by 2030 compared with 2008 levels. Despite increasing concerns about emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and the effects on the global climate and increased investment in renewable energy sources, fossil fuels are forecast to account for more than three quarters of this energy demand growth. Of the main sources of primary energy; oil, coal, natural gas, nuclear, hydropower and biomass, coal will see the largest absolute rise, of about 53%. Demand for oil is forecast to rise by 24% to 105m barrels per day in 2030, while natural gas demand is forecast to rise by an even greater volume, predicted to reach 4.4trn cubic meters a year by 2030. This sustained demand for oil and gas is against a backdrop of maturing oil and gas fields in many of the world's 'traditional' producing areas such as the North Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, and concerns about peak oil. In addition, a large proportion of the world's proven oil and gas reserves are held by a small number of countries, and evidence of resource nationalism and tighter criteria for foreign investment have led to increased concerns about energy security. Many of the world's key producing fields are now maturing or are seriously depleted, and the continued demand for new oil and gas supplies means governments and companies are looking to new, and often completely unknown, regions to replace reserves. Some of these areas are believed to contain substantial undiscovered and undeveloped resources but many of them pose serious political and technological challenges to exploration and development.

Key findings

Over three quarters of overall energy demand growth up to 2030 is forecast to come from fossil fuels, despite increased investment in renewable energy sources. Over 50m bpd of the 78m bpd of oil forecast to be produced in 2030 will have to come from resources yet to be discovered or developed

In Africa, the Gulf of Guinea alone is forecast to meet a quarter of total US energy imports by 2020. Sierra Leone, Sao Tome and Principe, and Liberia are emerging as high potential areas for investment in the west of the continent as companies look beyond major producers Nigeria and Angola. The joint development zone between Sao Tome and Nigeria could contain up to 11bn barrels

In eastern Africa, following successful exploration in the Albertine basin, Uganda holds the potential to become a net oil exporter

The Arctic could contain undiscovered resources of 90bn bls of and 1,670trn cu ft of natural gas, representing 13% and 30% respectively of the world's yet-to-be-found oil and gas

Technological developments such as wide-azimuth seismic acquisition and floating LNG will play key roles in successful exploration and development of frontier oil and gas reserves

Use this report to

• Understand the drivers of the need to explore for oil and gas in new and largely unknown areas

• Analyse the opportunities available for investment consideration through examination of the data available and an exploration history of the selected frontier areas

• Be better-informed of both the potential and the challenges presented by exploration in frontier areas, including the associated political and technological risks

• Assess the attraction and the risks for your company of investing in these frontier areas

• Benefit from the report's information to help make your company's next international upstream investment decision

Explore issues including...

Sustained fossil fuels reliance: Despite climate change concerns and increasing investment in renewable energy sources such as wind, solar and biofuels, fossil fuels will account for over two-thirds of overall energy demand up to 2030

Maturing traditional producing areas: Many of the world's traditional producing regions are maturing or depleted, meaning oil and gas companies now need to venture into new and unknown areas, 'frontier' regions, in order to look for new oil and gas resources to replace produced reserves and meet continued demand

Frontier equals high-potential, high-risk: Frontier areas are often data-poor, being barely or completely unexplored. Many are believed to hold substantial undiscovered oil/gas resources, but pose political, socio-economic, geographical and technological challenges that may present serious barriers to commercial investment

Technology opens up frontiers: Technological developments in the oil and gas sector, including significant advances in seismic to aid reservoir analysis; deep and ultra-deepwater drilling capabilities; growing liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity and 'mega-pipelines'

Discover

• By how much is demand for oil and gas forecast to grow in the next twenty years? How much of this forecast demand will need to come from resources yet to be discovered?

• To what degree can successful frontier exploration change the concept of 'peak oil'?

• Why do oil and gas companies need to explore in new and unknown frontier areas?

• Which are the most promising 'new' countries in West Africa for exploration? 'What is their undiscovered resource potential and how risky is investment?

• How likely is a resolution to the sovereignty dispute over Western Sahara, believed to hold substantial oil resources, and should companies sign for licences with Morocco or the territory's exiled government?

• What discoveries have been made in the ultradeep waters of the Gulf of Mexico and what potential do its deep and ultra-deep-waters hold?

• Is going deeper in the Gulf of Mexico a better bet than new areas elsewhere in the US?

• What is the resource potential of the Falklands? Will drilling there lead to a repeat of the 1982 Falklands conflict?

• Which basins contain most of the Arctic's undiscovered resources?

Table of Contents

Top Frontier Oil Countries

Executive Summary 10

Introduction and context for frontier oil exploration 10

West Africa the 'Third Generation': Sierra Leone, Liberia, Sao Tome and Principe 11

Ultra Deep Water: Gulf of Mexico, the next US frontier 12

Western Sahara: A disputed frontier and the challenge of sovereignty 12

The Falkland Islands 13

Other frontier countries: Uganda, the Bahamas and the Arctic 14

Technological advances facilitating frontier access and development 15

Chapter 1 Introduction and context for frontier oil exploration 18

Summary 18

Methodology 19

The global energy market 19

Sustained fossil fuels reliance 21

Energy security 23

Peak oil 27

Security & diversity of supply 28

Maturing of traditional producing areas 30

The push for the frontiers 31

No more easy options 32

Chapter 2 West Africa, the 'third generation': Sierra Leone, Liberia, Sao Tomé and Principe 36

Summary 36

Background and context to the new West African exploration 37

African advantage 38

Sierra Leone 40

Political landscape 41

Natural resources and oil exploration 41

The next Jubilee? 42

Liberia 44

Reserves potential 45

Onshore potential 47

Sao Tomé and Principe 48

Investment challenges and risks in the West Africa region 52

Coping with graft 55

Exploration risk 56

Chapter 3 Ultra deepwater Gulf of Mexico, the next US frontier 60

Summary 60

Introduction 61

Offshore exploration 62

Ultra-deep discoveries 64

Maturing production driving the need to go deeper 65

Reserves potential 66

Sustained licensing 67

Facilitating investment- why the GofM? 68

Challenges and risks of going deeper 70

Chapter 4 Western Sahara: a disputed frontier 74

Summary 74

Introduction 75

Hydrocarbon prospects 75

Exploration history 79

Licenses awarded by SADR and Morocco 81

Conflicting licenses 84

Political context 87

Current political situation and impact on exploration 88

Case Study - The East Timor experience 90

Conclusion 91

Chapter 5 The Falkland Islands 96

Summary 96

Introduction 97

Exploration history & production potential 98

The North Falkland Basin 100

Recent activity 101

The 'Southern Basins' 102

Proven reserves in the vicinity 103

Further opportunities available for investment 106

Far north of North Falklands 108

Political context and the challenge to exploration 108

Other challenges 110

Chapter 6 Other Frontier Countries: Uganda, the Bahamas and the

Arctic 114

Summary 114

Introduction 115

Uganda overview 115

Context for oil exploration and development 115

Risks and challenges to development 119

Learning the lessons of Nigeria 120

The Bahamas 121

Context for oil exploration and development 121

Why the Bahamas? 123

Challenges and risks 124

Arctic 124

Prospectivity of Arctic basins 125

Exploration history and current activity 128

Risks and challenges 130

Chapter 7 Technological advances facilitating frontier access and development 134

Summary 134

Introduction 135

Understanding little-known reservoirs 135

The future of seismic surveying 137

Exploration drilling capabilities 139

Marketing and monetization 142

The case for liquefied natural gas 144

Floating Liquified Natural Gas (FLNG) 146

Conclusion 148

Political and economic risk assessment of Frontier oil countries 149

Appendix 153

Glossary 153

Index 154

List of Figures

Figure 1.1: Global natural gas demand, IEA Reference Scenario (bcm), 2009 21

Figure 1.2: Ten largest global proven oil reserve holders (bn bls), 2009 25

Figure 1.3: Ten largest global proven gas reserve holders (trn cu meters), 2009 26

Figure 2.4: US oil imports December (bls '000), 2009 38

Figure 2.5: Venus and Jubilee oil discoveries 43

Figure 2.6: Liberia third licensing round acreage, 2010 46

Figure 2.7: JDZ Licensing Round 2004 50

Figure 2.8: São Tome and Príncipe 1st Licensing Round (March 2010) 52

Figure 2.9: West Africa 'the third generation' SWOT 58

Figure 3.10: Gulf of Mexico estimated volume of deep water fields (Mboe), 2008 63

Figure 3.11: Ultra Deep Water Gulf of Mexico SWOT 72

Figure 4.12: Comparison North east/North West countries proven gas reserves (trn cubic feet), 2009 78

Figure 4.13: Aaiun Basin exploration well history 80

Figure 4.14: SADR Licensing Round 2008 83

Figure 4.15: Zag License Area 85

Figure 4.16: Western Sahara SWOT 93

Figure 5.17: Falkland Islands Regional Basins 99

Figure 5.18: Oil reserves in South American countries (bn bls), 2009 104

Figure 5.19: Share of gas reserves in South American countries (trn cu m), 2009 105

Figure 5.20: The Falkland Islands SWOT 112

Figure 6.21: Uganda Albertine Rift Basin 118

Figure 6.22: Key Arctic oil basins (bn bls) 126

Figure 6.23: Key Arctic gas reserves (trn cu feet) 127

Figure 6.24: Acreage offered in Baffin Bay (Greenland 2010) 129

Figure 6.25: Other countries SWOTs 131

Figure 7.26: Newbuild deep/ultra-deep water rig deliveries, 2008 141

Figure 7.27: Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) production (m tons) 145

Figure 7.28: Distribution of standard gas fields, 2008 148

Figure 7.29: Frontier Oil Countries political/economic comparison, 2010 150

List of Tables

Table 1.1: Global natural gas demand, IEA Reference Scenario (bcm), 2009 21

Table 1.2: Ten largest global proven gas reserve holders (trn cu meters), 2009 26

Table 1.3: Oil production, IEA Reference Scenario (m bpd), 2009 31

Table 2.4: US oil imports December (bls '000), 2009 37

Table 2.5: Key discoveries offshore West Africa (excl. Nigeria and Angola) 39

Table 2.6: JDZ oil potential (m bls) 49

Table 2.7: Transparency International Corruption Perception Index (CPI), 2009 55

Table 3.8: Deep/ultradeep GofM discoveries, 2008 64

Table 3.9: Lower Tertiary discoveries in water depths >5,000ft (2008) 65

Table 3.10: Active leases by water depth (2008) 68

Table 3.11: Licensing rounds under current five-year program 68

Table 4.12: Comparison North East/North West African countries oil reserves (bls bn), 2009 76

Table 4.13: Comparison North East/North West African countries gas reserves (trn cubic feet), 2009 78

Table 4.14: Aaiun Basin exploration well history 79

Table 4.15: Blocks offered by SADR in the 2008 licensing round 82

Table 4.16: Morocco-SADR: fiscal comparisons 2010 91

Table 5.17: Wells drilled in the North Falkland Basin (in 1998) 100

Table 5.18: Oil reserves in South American countries (bn bls), 2009 104

Table 5.19: Gas reserves in South American countries (trn cu m), 2009 105

Table 5.20: Farm-in opportunities (Argos Resources) 107

Table 5.21: Farm-in opportunities (Desire Petroleum) 108

Table 6.22: Uganda licensing status 117

Table 6.23: Bahamas exploration well history 122

Table 6.24: Key Arctic oil reserves (bn bls) 125

Table 6.25: Key Arctic gas reserves (trn cu feet) 126

Table 7.26: Key global oil & gas pipelines 143

Table 7.27: Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) production 145

Table 7.28: Distribution of standard gas fields, 2008 147

Table 7.29: Frontier oil countries political/economic comparison, 2010 149

To order this report:

Oil and Gas energy Industry: Top Frontier Oil Countries: Potential, exploration opportunities and risks

More  Market Research Report

Check our  Company Profile, SWOT and Revenue Analysis!

SOURCE Reportlinker