The Future of 4G Technologies: New opportunities and changing business models for the emergence of LTE and WiMAX

NEW YORK, July 7 /PRNewswire/ -- Reportlinker.com announces that a new market research report is available in its catalogue:

The Future of 4G Technologies: New opportunities and changing business models for the emergence of LTE and WiMAX

http://www.reportlinker.com/p0233958/The-Future-of-4G-Technologies-New-opportunities-and-changing-business-models-for-the-emergence-of-LTE-and-WiMAX.html?d=CPDAIN17

Technological innovation, including 3G, improved smartphones and multiplay mobile Internet devices (MIDs), has led to a boom in data usage with data traffic surpassing voice traffic for the first time in December 2009. Having nearly trebled in 2008 and 2009, global mobile data traffic is expected to double every year until at least 2013.

The wealth of content and mobile applications available to users worldwide puts a strain on mobile networks. Next generation technologies like pre-4G and 4G with their promise of greater speed and spectral efficiency become all the more appealing to the players involved in the ICT value chain. However, the reality is that 80% of mobile connections are still on 2G networks and 3G connections are only available in some areas, even in developed countries, with the exception of a few leading countries.

The 4G proposition sounds very promising but its success will ultimately depend on the availability of new spectrum and wide coverage. The many benefits of 4G may also be wasted unless ICT companies find business models that will not only drive adoption but will also help them to increase revenue.

Key features of this report

- Overview of the market trends, technological and regulatory changes that are shaping the adoption of 4G.

- Identification of the main features of IMT-Advanced and of the principle 4G technology candidates.

- Comparison of the LTE and WiMAX technology families and their respective interest for ICT players.

- Examination of current pre-4G deployments.

- Analysis of the threats and opportunities posed by 4G.

Scope of this report

- Review the current technologies, regulatory factors and industry support impacting the adoption of 4G technologies.

- Identify key changes in consumer usage behavior that drive the need for the greater speed and spectral efficiency afforded by 4G.

- Understand how legacy technologies will influence vendors' choice of 4G protocol due to the economic and technical implications of deploying each technology.

- Identify the technology family best suited to a chosen 4G strategy based on each technology's characteristics and individual corporate circumstances.

- Identify the various initiatives in support of each technology candidate in order to revise considered strategies if necessary.

Key Market Issues

- Mobile penetration keeps growing worldwide. More consumers have access to mobile broadband and applications that require large amounts of bandwidth. This new trend creates connection issues and network congestion while posing network management and profitability issues for network operators.

- Technological advances such as the wider availability of 3G and innovation made in smartphones and other Internet-enabled devices have encouraged consumers to use their mobile devices more in the way they typically use their computers, accessing an increasing amount of data. By widening their range of user equipment, handset and PC manufacturers such as Apple and Samsung have increased consumers' expectations of a truly mobile computer environment. The experience of services such as mobile video, TV, and VoIP are becoming more comparable to those provided by a fixed PC environment.

- The great majority of mobile users are still on 2G networks that do not support the rich communication services users are increasingly expecting from their networks. Even the experience of those users on 3G networks is restrained by the technology's limitations. As data traffic increases in volume, network operators are confronted with the threat of traffic congestion and diminishing revenue. They need to find a way to not only meet their customers' needs but also ensure their profitability, which impacts their relationship with other vendors in the ICT value chain.

Key findings from this report

- Consumers are generating increasingly high volumes of mobile data traffic due to their adoption of more advanced devices. Smartphones and mobile Internet devices contribute to the growing popularity of bandwidth-intensive applications such as mobile video but also peer-to-peer and social networking. This puts pressure on networks and leads to congestion and poorer consumer experience.

- 2G still accounts for the great majority of mobile connections worldwide but increasingly high pockets of data traffic in some markets, combined with changing user needs, are rendering current mobile technologies inadequate to meet demand satisfactorily. Although 3G is responding to rising consumer data usage, a more efficient technology is required to not only meet consumer needs but also enhance user experience while ensuring profitability for ICT companies.

- Industry and consumers alike are keen to take mobile communications to the next level and there is strong interest in pre-4G technologies such as Mobile WiMAX and LTE that can increase data rates and capacity dramatically. Both technologies are marketed as 4G despite not meeting the IMT Advanced requirements. While Mobile WiMAX is already available in some markets, deployment of LTE is only just starting, pushing back the date when true 4G will be widely available commercially.

Key questions answered

- What are the major trends and drivers behind the adoption of 4G?

- What are the main 4G protocols and what is their appeal?

- What technologies, products and services will influence the successful rollout of 4G?

- Who are the major players in the 4G market and how do they position themselves?

- What are the main threats posed by the deployment of 4G and how can companies protect themselves?

Table of Contents

The Future of 4G Technologies

Executive summary 14

Competitive landscape 14

LTE and WiMAX 15

Technology deployments 15

Leading player strategies 17

The future of 4G technologies 18

Chapter 1 Introduction 20

Introduction 20

Who is this report for and what is it about? 21

Definitions 22

Evolved Packet Core (EPC) (ex. System Architecture Evolution – SAE) 22

E-reader 22

GSM 22

IMT-Advanced (4G) 22

LTE 22

LTE Advanced 22

Mobile broadband 23

Mobile Internet 23

Mobile Internet device (MID) 23

Mobile WiMAX 23

Notebook 23

Netbook 23

Peer-to-Peer (P2P) 23

Portable media player (PMP) 24

Portable navigation device (PND) 24

Radio access network (RAN) 24

Radio interface technology (RIT) 24

Smartphone 24

Set of radio interface technologies (SRIT) 24

Tablet PC 24

Ultra mobile PC (UMPC) 25

Wi-Fi 25

WiMAX 25

WiMAX 2 (WiMAX Release 2) 25

Chapter 2 Competitive landscape 28

Summary 28

Introduction 29

Impact of legacy technologies 29

Impact of 2G technologies 29

2G technologies have limited data capacity 29

2G will remain the dominant technology until 2012 30

Impact of 3G and pre-4G technologies 32

3G technologies cannot cope with major changes in mobile services usage 32

Long Term Evolution (LTE) provides a temporary solution 33

Support for LTE translates into support for LTE Advanced 34

Mobile WiMAX offers an acceptable interim solution 34

Support for Mobile WiMAX translates into support for WiMAX 2 35

Legacy technologies will dictate the roadmap to 4G 35

Key trends and drivers 37

Mobile Internet fuels demand for faster service delivery 37

Mobile broadband substitution compounds network congestion 38

Increased mobile Internet usage also impacts devices and applications 39

Data traffic is skyrocketing 40

Current technologies are under mounting pressure 46

Industry support and regulatory factors will influence the adoption of 4G 48

Strong commitment from vendors to LTE will speed up 4G adoption 48

The LTE ecosystem is developing 49

The EU supports next generation networks and LTE 50

WiMAX also benefits from its own support group 51

The ITU IMT-Advanced standard and 4G technology candidates 52

3GPP and 3GPP2 standards 57

UMB 57

LTE Release 10 and beyond (LTE-Advanced) 58

IEEE standards 59

IEEE 802.16m (WiMAX 2 / WiMAX release 2) 59

The countdown to 4G has started but deployment may be delayed 60

The ICT landscape changes as competition intensifies 60

Chapter 3 LTE and WiMAX 64

Summary 64

Introduction 64

Note on technology definitions 65

Industry and regulatory bodies rally around 4G 65

LTE Release 10 and beyond (LTE Advanced) supporters 65

3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) 65

LTE/SAE Trial Initiative (LTSI) 66

Global mobile Suppliers Association (GSA) 66

The One Voice Initiative 67

GSM Association (GSMA) 67

Next Generation Mobile Networks Alliance (NGMN) 67

IEEE 802.16m supporters 68

WiMAX Forum 68

WiMAX 2 Collaboration Initiative (WCI) 68

The WiMAX Open Retail Initiative 69

M Taiwan 69

American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 70

Key features of LTE and WiMAX 71

Performance and capacity 71

Speed 71

Spectral efficiency and latency 71

VoIP capacity 72

Backward compatibility 73

Ubiquity and coverage 73

Ecosystem 75

WiMAX 75

LTE 77

Applications 78

WiMAX strives to reproduce a full computing environment 78

LTE Advanced will support the same applications as WiMAX 2 78

Economic factors 79

WIMAX 79

LTE 80

Summary: LTE and WiMAX share many similarities 81

Chapter 4 Technology deployments 84

Summary 84

Introduction 84

Regulations and policies can impact 4G adoption 85

EU regulations drive 4G development but favor LTE 85

The EU welcomes next generation networks (NGN) 85

The EU backs LTE and LTE Advanced 86

Beyond Next-Generation Mobile Broadband (BuNGee) 87

Spectrum issues could jeopardize 4G 88

Spectrum allocations will impact operators and manufacturers 88

WiMAX 88

LTE 89

Allocation of the digital dividend would benefit 4G 90

The spectrum (re)allocation process is under way 90

Europe: 90

Middle East: Bahrain frees up spectrum for LTE 91

Africa is allocating the 790-862 MHz band to mobile broadband 91

Central & Latin America (CALA): Mexico may open up the

700MHz band 91

Asia-Pacific 91

4G deployments in the world 93

WiMAX has a head start on LTE but lower coverage 94

Mobile WiMAX 94

WiMAX 2 98

Current WiMAX deployments 99

Asia-Pacific 99

Western Europe 100

Eastern Europe and Russia 100

Middle East 101

Africa 101

USA 102

Central & Latin America 102

LTE and LTE Advanced deployments 102

The first phase of LTE deployment will occur in 2010-2011 102

What is in the pipeline? 108

WiMAX Forum is gearing up efforts to finalize WiMAX 2 108

WiMAX 2 should be commercially available on a larger scale in 2011-2012 108

The deployment of LTE Advanced will be delayed by LTE 109

Chapter 5 Leading player strategies 112

Summary 112

Introduction 113

Samsung Electronics 113

Samsung wants to be an innovator and leader 113

Samsung's 4G strategy is user- and device-focused 114

Samsung targets the smartphone segment 114

The Smart life content plan will help boost smartphone sales 114

Samsung ventures into software territory 115

Samsung launches its own app store 115

Samsung embarks on an open mobile OS strategy 115

The success of Samsung's 4G strategy relies partly on the success of its Bada OS 116

4G technologies: Samsung wants the best of both worlds 116

Samsung is a step ahead with its LTE product offering 116

Samsung's WiMAX involvement and strategy 117

Samsung is a leader and innovator in mobile WiMAX 117

Samsung leads the way to WiMAX 2 (802.16m) 118

Samsung's WiMAX range of devices is also versatile 118

Samsung targets Asia and the Middle East for its WiMAX development 118

LG Electronics 119

LG changes strategic direction and forms new partnerships 119

LG steps up efforts to become a reference in the smartphone segment 120

LG is seeking technology independence to secure its position as LTE market driver 121

LG's 4G strategy focuses on LTE 121

LG is gearing up towards producing an LTE capable handset 121

Innovation and leadership will consolidate LG's place in the 4G market 122

LG wants to capitalize on its LTE track record 122

Motorola 123

Smartphones will drive growth in the handset market 123

Applications will help Motorola meet its smartphone strategic targets 124

Motorola is involved in both LTE and WiMAX while remaining a key player

in previous technology generations 124

Motorola raises its 4G profile 124

Motorola is a leader in WiMAX 124

Motorola aims for a larger share of the LTE market 125

Motorola's LTE contracts increase 125

Motorola intensifies its LTE efforts and extends its product range 126

Motorola targets emerging markets to drive growth 127

Motorola expands its 4G wireless strategy into the consumer electronics market 127

Motorola will start embedding proprietary technology in third-party

CE devices 128

Motorola still believes strongly in WiMAX 129

Motorola supports WiMAX 2 129

Motorola deploys its WiMAX technology in Asia 129

Motorola is extending its WiMAX portfolio 130

Apple 131

Apple delays its entry into the 4G market 131

The iPhone 4's features offer better support for rich media communications 132

Apple's edge in the MID segment is confirmed 133

Apple offers multifunction devices with one predominant use 133

Changes to the iPhone's operating system makes the iPhone more 4G compliant 134

Apple's dominance of the apps market in all form factors continues 134

Apple wants a share of the mobile advertising market 135

Vendor summary – Samsung, LG, Motorola, Apple 136

Zain Group 137

The departure of Zain's CEO derails Zain's development plans 137

Zain's expansion is put on hold and its African assets are sold off 138

Zain brings next generation mobile technology to emerging markets 138

Zain will be launching LTE in the Middle East first 139

Zain chooses LTE to assert its position as a global player 140

Zain is also investing in WiMAX technology 140

Clearwire 141

Clearwire opts for aggressive and fast deployment across the US 141

Clearwire looks set to switch allegiance from WiMAX to LTE 141

Clearwire may enter an agreement with T-Mobile to create an MVNO 142

Clearwire opens up the ecosystem with its "best-of-breed" strategy 142

Clearwire's gamble has paid off so far 143

ZTE 145

ZTE aims for continued rapid growth 145

ZTE goes from late entrant to innovator 146

ZTE's High Performance Product Development program increases its competitiveness 146

ZTE is ready for 4G 146

ZTE has a double 4G offering 147

ZTE targets the US for 4G deployment 148

ZTE claims to have found the killer service: interoperability testing 148

ZTE is keen to increase investments in LTE 149

ZTE makes a bid for technology independence 149

ZTE pursues an aggressive internationalization strategy 150

ZTE will raise awareness of its brand in the terminal segment 150

Vendor summary – Clearwire, ZTE, Zain 152

Chapter 6 The future of 4G technologies 154

Summary 154

Introduction 154

LTE and WiMAX both have their place in the 4G family 155

Leading players and organizations will influence the choice of 4G technology 155

The choice of technology depends on the business model 156

All roadmaps lead to 4G 156

The GSM and CDMA roadmap 156

The WiMAX roadmap 158

LTE and WiMAX are not mutually exclusive 160

The deployment of 4G will change the ICT market 162

Impact on networks 163

Impact on the ecosystem 163

Devices will become multimode 163

Ultra mobile device adoption will increase 164

CE devices will turn into mobile Internet devices 165

Impact on content 168

Increased data usage could raise copyright issues 168

Impact on applications and services 168

4G will accelerate three-screen convergence 169

Adaptability and personalization will be the key words 169

4G will enhance the gaming experience 170

Location-based services (LBS) will drive network traffic up 170

In Africa, mobile entertainment will drive growth 170

Mobile VoIP will take off once 4G is fully deployed 170

Impact on user experience 171

Mobile cloud computing will become more of a reality 171

The new ICT competitive environment 172

Technology convergence is still ongoing 172

Impact on business models 173

Prepaid model 174

Usage-based model 174

Companies mentioned

Apple, Clearwire, LG, Motorola, Samsung, Zain, ZTE, Companies mentioned Application-specific 174

Time-based 175

Time of day model 175

Location-based model 175

Funded by mobile advertising or mobile commerce 175

Who stands to gain and who stands to lose from 4G technologies? 177

Consumers 177

Network operators 178

Network equipment vendors 178

Device manufacturers/consumer electronics manufacturers 179

Software vendors 179

Index 181

List of Figures

Figure 2.1: Global mobile subscribers by technology generation (bn), 2009-14 31

Figure 2.2: Global Internet* subscribers (m), 2008-2012 38

Figure 2.3: Global mobile data traffic (Terabytes/month), 2009-14 40

Figure 2.4: Mobile data traffic by region (Terabytes/month), 2009-14 41

Figure 2.5: Mobile data traffic by device type (Terabytes/month), 2009-14 43

Figure 2.6: Mobile data traffic by application (Terabytes/month), 2009-14 45

Figure 2.7: 4G drivers 46

Figure 2.8: Progression towards IMT-Advanced 53

Figure 2.9: IMT-Advanced candidate technology submissions 54

Figure 2.10: Steps in 4G radio interface development process 55

Figure 2.11: Critical milestones in the 4G radio interface development process 56

Figure 3.12: LTE vs. WiMAX 81

Figure 4.13: Top 5 4G markets (% share of global 4G subscriptions), 2014 93

Figure 4.14: Global WiMAX technology adoption by subscriber coverage (%), 2009 94

Figure 4.15: Regional mobile WiMAX subscriptions (m), 2009-15 96

Figure 4.16: EMEA mobile WiMAX subscriptions (m), 2009-15 97

Figure 4.17: Global LTE subscriptions (m), 2012-2015 107

Figure 5.18: Vendor summary - Samsung, LG, Motorola, Apple 136

Figure 5.19: Vendor summary - Clearwire, ZTE, Zain 152

Figure 6.20: LTE and WiMAX - competitive positioning 160

Figure 6.21: The impact of 4G 163

Figure 6.22: Global user device shipments (m) 2009-13 165

Figure 6.23: Penetration of devices classified as MIDs (% of total devices), 2012 167

Figure 6.24: New pricing business models 176

Figure 6.25: Positives and negatives for stakeholders in 4G technologies 177

List of Tables

Table 2.1: Global mobile subscribers by technology generation (bn), 2009-14 31

Table 2.2: Global Internet* subscribers (m), 2008-2012 38

Table 2.3: Global mobile data traffic (Terabytes/month), 2009-14 41

Table 2.4: Mobile data traffic by region (Terabytes/month), 2009-14 42

Table 2.5: Mobile data traffic by device type (Terabytes/month), 2009-14 44

Table 2.6: Mobile data traffic by application (Terabytes/month), 2009-14 45

Table 2.7: LTE ecosystem, 2010 50

Table 2.8: Key features of 3G and 4G 52

Table 2.9: Key features of LTE Advanced 59

Table 3.10: WiMAX coverage by region, 2009 74

Table 4.11: Top 5 4G markets (% share of global 4G subscriptions), 2014 94

Table 4.12: Global WiMAX technology adoption by subscriber coverage (%), 2009 95

Table 4.13: 38 LTE networks commitments, 7 April 2010 104

Table 4.14: 25 LTE networks commitments, 7 April 2010 - Launch date to be confirmed 105

Table 4.15: LTE trials (pre-commitment stage) 106

Table 4.16: Global LTE subscriptions (m), 2012-2015 107

Table 6.17: Global user device shipments 2009-13 165

Table 6.18: Penetration of devices classified as MIDs (% of total devices), 2012 167

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