The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany Declines

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Sep 23, 2011, 04:00 ET

BRUSSELS, Sept. 23, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany declined 0.3 percent in July to 109.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decline in June, and a 0.5 percent increase in May.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.4 percent in July to 106.8 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in June, and a 0.2 percent increase in May.

The Conference Board LEI for Germany decreased for the second consecutive month in July, amid widespread weaknesses among its components. As a result, the leading economic index is now slightly below its most recent peak in July 2007. Meanwhile, the growth trend in current economic conditions, as measured by The Conference Board CEI for Germany, has remained relatively stable this year. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the economy should continue to expand in the near term, though perhaps at a modest pace.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component -- primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Germany include:

New Orders, Investment Goods
Yield Spread cumulated, 10 year minus 3 month
Change in Inventories
Gross Enterprise and Property Income
Stock Prices
New Orders, Residential Construction
Consumer Confidence Index

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=4

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

Summary Table of Composite Indexes

	2011			6-month
	May	Jun	Jul	Jan to Jul

Leading Economic Index (LEI)	109.5 r	109.3 p	109.0 p
Percent Change	0.5 r	-0.2 p	-0.3 p	1.3 p
Diffusion	42.9	35.7	28.6	42.9
Coincident Economic Index (CEI)	106.2 r	106.4	106.8
Percent Change	0.2 r	0.2 r	0.4	1.1
Diffusion	75.0	50.0	75.0	100.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved