The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, Together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Increased in December

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Jan 17, 2014, 08:00 ET

RIO DE JANEIRO, Jan. 17, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), increased 0.9 percent in December. The index now stands at 127.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decline in November and a 0.1 increase in October. Five of the eight components contributed positively to the index in December.

"Strengthened expectations in the manufacturing and services sectors, coupled with a moderately improving global economy, contributed to the LEI's increase in December," said Paulo Picchetti, Economist at FGV/IBRE. "But given the sluggish stock market, subdued consumers' expectations, and monetary policy decisions designed to counteract inflation, only a modest recovery is likely in the first half of 2014."

Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board, added, "The small increase in the LEI over the last six months suggests that the weak performance of the Brazilian economy seen throughout 2013 has been abating. We project economic growth to stabilize and even improve slightly in the early part of this year."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^®for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, fell 0.1 percent in December at 128.9 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decline in November and a 0.6 percent increase in October. Three of the six components contributed positively to the index in December.

TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas

TCB/FGV Brazil LEI was launched in July 2013. Plotted back to 1996, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of Brazil. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The eight components of TCB/FGV Brazil LEI include:

Swap Rate, 1 year (Source: Central Bank of Brazil)
Stock Price Bovespa Index (Source: BOVESPA - Bolsa de Valores de Sao Paulo/ Sao Paulo Stock Exchange)
Manufacturing Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Services Sector Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Consumer Expectations Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Physical Production of Durables Consumer Goods Index (Source: IBGE - Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica/ Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics)
Terms of Trade Index (Source: FUNCEX - Fundacao Centro de Estudos do Comercio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)
Exports Volume Index (Source: FUNCEX - Fundacao Centro de Estudos do Comercio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)

https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=12

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2014 indicator releases:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States of America.

www.conferenceboard.org

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ABOUT FGV/IBRE

The Brazilian Institute of Economics (Instituto Brasilieiro de Economia—IBRE) at Fundacao Getulio Vargas (FGV) was founded in 1951 to research, analyse, produce and disseminate macroeconomic statistics and applied studies. Its purpose is to inform and help improve public policies and private activities in the Brazilian economy. IBRE is a leading institute in calculating the Brazilian GDP and producing price indices including the General Price Index (IGP) which served as Brazil's official inflation index for many years. In addition to price indices, IBRE prepares trend and business cycle indicators that are widely used by administrators and analysts.

www.fgv.br/ibre


Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

	2013					6-month
	Oct	Nov		Dec		Jun to Dec

Leading Economic Index	126.6	126.3		127.4	p
Percent Change	0.1	-0.2		0.9	p	0.1
Diffusion	50.0	37.5		56.3		50.0

Coincident Economic Index	129.2	129.0	p	128.9	p
Percent Change	0.6	-0.2	p	-0.1	p	0.6
Diffusion	91.7	41.7		66.7		66.7

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Sources: The Conference Board, FGV/IBRE All Rights Reserved