Sixty-One Percent of Occupations Projected to Lose Jobs Over the Next Five Years are Middle-Wage, According to CareerBuilder and Emsi Research

- Study Highlights Top Occupations Gaining and Losing Jobs in High-, Middle- and Low-Wage Categories

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Aug 05, 2016, 12:05 ET

CHICAGO, Aug. 5, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- The U.S. economy is expected to add 7,232,517 jobs over the next five years — a 5 percent increase — but a new study from CareerBuilder and Emsi shows that workers in middle-wage jobs may not find as many opportunities.

High-wage and low-wage occupations are each projected to grow 5 percent from 2016 to 2021, but middle-wage jobs are only estimated to grow 3 percent. At the same time, 61 percent of the 173 occupations expected to lose jobs over the next five years are in the middle-wage category.

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"The U.S. is facing a sustained trend of declining middle-wage employment that has serious implications not only for workers, but for the economy overall," said Matt Ferguson, CEO of CareerBuilder and co-author of The Talent Equation. "If we can't find a way to re-skill and up-skill workers at scale, middle-wage workers will become increasingly susceptible to unemployment or will have to move into lower-paying roles that may not support them and their families. This can have a negative ripple effect on consumer spend, housing, investing and other key financial indicators."

Occupations Adding and Losing Jobs by Wage Category
For the purpose of this study, CareerBuilder and Emsi defined low-wage jobs as those that pay $13.83 per hour and below; middle-wage jobs earn $13.84 - $21.13 per hour; and high-wage occupations make $21.14 per hour and higher. ¹

The following is a list of occupations that rank among the top for projected growth or declines in employment for each wage category from 2016 to 2021. Each of the growing occupations listed are those adding at least 50,000 jobs over the next five years.

Growing High-Wage Occupations

Occupation	2016 Jobs	2021 Jobs	Job Added 2016 - 2021	2016 - 2021 % Change
Software Developers, Applications	772,195	861,122	88,927	12%
Computer Systems Analysts	600,001	671,245	71,244	12%
Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists	532,336	590,363	58,027	11%
Management Analysts	798,484	870,713	72,229	9%
Registered Nurses	2,870,340	3,116,957	246,617	9%

Declining High-Wage Occupations

Occupation	2016 Jobs	2021 Jobs	Job Added 2016 - 2021	2016 - 2021 % Change
Postal Service Mail Carriers	303,325	279,023	(24,302)	(8%)
Reporters and Correspondents	47,501	44,063	(3,438)	(7%)
Construction Managers	368,245	350,774	(17,471)	(5%)
Real Estate Sales Agents	415,006	400,417	(14,589)	(4%)
First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers	622,435	617,020	(5,415)	(1%)

Growing Middle-Wage Occupations

Occupation	2016 Jobs	2021 Jobs	Job Added 2016 - 2021	2016 - 2021 % Change
Medical Assistants	631,435	701,056	69,621	11%
Customer Service Representatives	2,674,925	2,846,989	172,064	6%
Maintenance and Repair Workers	1,466,944	1,535,161	68,217	5%
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers	1,926,886	2,009,133	82,247	4%
Office Clerks	3,365,039	3,489,518	124,479	4%

Declining Middle-Wage Occupations

Occupation	2016 Jobs	2021 Jobs	Job Added 2016 - 2021	2016 - 2021 % Change
Printing Press Operators	174,311	159,083	(15,228)	(9%)
Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers	494,879	458,732	(36,147)	(7%)
Travel Agents	77,683	72,789	(4,894)	(6%)
Carpenters	1,053,273	1,031,359	(21,914)	(2%)
Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks	1,780,151	1,752,270	(27,881)	(2%)

Growing Low-Wage Occupations

Occupation	2016 Jobs	2021 Jobs	Job Added 2016 - 2021	2016 - 2021 % Change
Home Health Aides	992,134	1,179,527	187,393	19%
Cooks, Restaurant	1,219,433	1,333,041	113,608	9%
Nursing Assistants	1,520,614	1,655,662	135,048	9%
Security Guards	1,185,116	1,260,953	75,837	6%
Janitors and Cleaners	2,632,801	2,792,345	159,544	6%

Declining Low-Wage Occupations

Occupation	2016 Jobs	2021 Jobs	Job Added 2016 - 2021	2016 - 2021 % Change
Door-to-Door Sales Workers, News and Street Vendors	78,078	64,271	(13,807)	(18%)
Sewing Machine Operators	157,931	135,575	(22,356)	(14%)
Floral Designers	53,876	48,391	(5,485)	(10%)
Cooks, Fast Food	545,746	530,839	(14,907)	(3%)
Tellers	501,879	490,202	(11,677)	(2%)

¹ Definition from the National Employment Law Project

About Emsi
Emsi (Economic Modeling Specialists Intl.) is a CareerBuilder company that provides industry-leading employment data and economic analysis via web tools and custom reports. Emsi turns vast amounts of labor market data into easy-to-use information that helps organizations understand the connection between economies, people, and work, and ultimately build a better workforce. Emsi's software services - Analyst and Career Coach - are used by thousands of professionals in higher education, workforce and economic development, and the private sector. Emsi has also produced more than 1,400 comprehensive impact analyses for colleges and universities in the U.S. and internationally. For more information, visit www.economicmodeling.com.

About CareerBuilder®
As the global leader in human capital solutions, CareerBuilder specializes in cutting-edge HR software as a service to help companies with every step of the recruitment process from acquire to hire. CareerBuilder works with top employers across industries, providing job distribution, sourcing, workflow, CRM, data and analytics in one pre-hire platform. It also operates leading job sites around the world. Owned by TEGNA Inc. (NYSE:TGNA), Tribune Media (NYSE:TRCO) and The McClatchy Company (NYSE:MNI), CareerBuilder and its subsidiaries operate in the United States, Europe, South America, Canada and Asia. For more information, visit www.careerbuilder.com.

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SOURCE CareerBuilder