September 2013 New Car Sales Expected to Be Down 4.4 Percent According to TrueCar; September 2013 SAAR at 15.4M

Estimated incentive spending drops to below $2,400 per vehicle

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Sep 25, 2013, 06:00 ET

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Sept. 25, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, an authority on new car pricing information, trends and forecasting, today released its September 2013 sales and incentives forecast. The forecast shows the following:

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For September 2013, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,131,333 units, down 4.4 percent from September 2012 and also down 24.5% percent from August 2013 (on an unadjusted basis – September 2013 had 23 sales days, compared to 25 in September 2012).
The September 2013 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate ("SAAR") of 15.4 million new car sales, down about four percent from August 2013 and up about four percent over September 2012.
Retail sales are down 2.8 percent compared to September 2012 and down 24.4 percent from August 2013.
Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 14.1 percent of total industry sales in September 2013.
The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,382 in September 2013, which represents an increase of 0.6 percent from September 2012 and is down 4.8 percent from August 2013. Incentives are at their lowest percentage since October 2012.
Used car sales* are estimated to be 3,209,378. The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1: 3 for September 2013.

"Labor Day sales clearly pulled ahead from September volume and resulted in a lackluster month. The uncertainty in the financial markets also finally caught up with auto sales, causing some hesitation for big ticket item purchases," said Jesse Toprak, senior analyst for TrueCar.com. "Nevertheless, the fundamental drivers for the market demand are strong and we should have no problems reaching 15.7 million unit sales this year."

Forecasts for the top eight manufacturers for September 2013:

Unit Sales

Manufacturer	September 2013 Forecast	% Change vs. August 2013	% Change vs. September 2012
Chrysler	138,236	-16.1%	-2.0%
Ford	174,849	19.1%	2.3%
GM	197,147	-28.5%	-6.2%
Honda	119,269	-28.3%	1.8%
Hyundai/Kia	96,536	-18.3%	-10.7%
Nissan	84,423	-29.9%	-8.1%
Toyota	163,134	-29.5%	-5.1%
Volkswagen Group	43,435	-24.7%	-15.5%
Industry	1,131,333	-24.5%	-4.4%

Market Share

Manufacturer	Sept. 2013 Forecast	Aug-13	Sep-12
Chrysler	12.2%	11.0%	11.9%
Ford	15.5%	14.4%	14.4%
GM	17.4%	18.4%	17.8%
Honda	10.5%	11.1%	9.9%
Hyundai/Kia	8.5%	7.9%	9.1%
Nissan	7.5%	8.0%	7.8%
Toyota	14.4%	15.5%	14.5%
Volkswagen Group	3.8%	3.9%	4.3%

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer	Sept. 2013 Incentives	% Change vs. August 2013	% Change vs. September 2012	Total Spending
Chrysler	$3,020	-0.7%	-8.0%	$ 417,462,491
Ford	$ 2,878	-1.9%	15.3%	$ 503,278,255
GM	$ 3,203	-9.8%	9.9%	$ 631,554,460
Honda	$ 1,431	-12.1%	-42.0%	$ 170,629,234
Hyundai/Kia	$ 1,652	-3.8%	21.7%	$ 159,467,446
Nissan	$ 2,242	0.9%	-7.3%	$ 189,284,966
Toyota	$ 1,661	-9.3%	-10.5%	$ 270,904,827
Volkswagen Group	$ 2,530	-5.5%	19.5%	$ 103,256,978
Industry	$ 2,382	-4.8%	-0.6%	$2,690,929,265

"Overall industry incentive spending has declined for the third consecutive month and hit its lowest levels in nearly a year," said Kristen Andersson, analyst at TrueCar.com. "Through Q3 of 2013 compared to the same period last year, overall incentives have remained relatively flat; Honda and Nissan are the only two automakers with a double digit decrease of almost 31 percent and 15 percent respectively."

TrueCar.com bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts and CPI). TrueCar.com does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.

*Used car sales figures include sales from franchise dealerships, independent dealerships and private party sales

About TrueCar, Inc.
TrueCar, Inc., headquartered in Santa Monica, Calif., with offices in Santa Barbara, Calif., San Francisco, Calif., and Austin, Texas, is an automotive pricing information and analysis company that creates a better buying experience for dealers and consumers. As an online publisher of unbiased new and used car transaction data, TrueCar.com provides price reports that empower dealers and consumers to agree on the parameters of a fair deal by supplying a transparent, simple understanding of what others recently paid for similarly-equipped new cars in their geographic area. TrueCar also owns ALG, the benchmark for vehicle value information in the auto industry and has been forecasting residual values for nearly 50 years in the U.S. and Canadian markets.

TrueCar is a data-driven company that sources, compiles and analyzes car-buying information unlike anybody in the industry. Since its founding in 2005, TrueCar dealer partners have sold over 900,000 vehicles across the country. Its national network of more than 6,500 Certified Dealers is committed to provide no-hassle pricing for some of the country's largest membership and service organizations, including American Express, AAA, USAA and Consumer Reports that collectively represent more than one million monthly in-market customers.

You can follow TrueCar on Twitter (@TrueCar) and become a fan of TrueCar on Facebook and Google+.

Disclaimer
This press release and the information contained herein is for noncommercial use on "as-is, as available" basis and may be used for informational purposes only. TrueCar makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, with respect to the information contained in this press release and the results of the use of such information, including without limitation, the implied warranty of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose and non-infringement. The information contained in this press release may include technical inaccuracies or typographical errors. Neither TrueCar nor any of its parents, subsidiaries, affiliates or respective partners, officers, directors, employees or agents shall be held liable for any damages, whether direct, incidental, indirect, special or consequential, including without limitation, lost revenues or lost profits arising from or in connection with your use or reliance on the information presented in this press release.

SOURCE TrueCar.com