Rising Sea Levels Threaten to Put Nearly 2 Million U.S. Homes Underwater

$882 billion worth of the current U.S. housing stock would be underwater in 2100 if sea levels follow scientists' predictions

- If sea levels rise as much as climate scientists predict by the year 2100, nearly 300 U.S. cities would lose at least half their homes, and 36 U.S. cities would be completely lost.

- One in eight Florida homes would be underwater, accounting for nearly half of the lost housing value nationwide.

- The median value of a home at risk of being underwater is $296,296. The value of the average U.S. home is $187,000.

News provided by

Zillow

Aug 02, 2016, 12:17 ET

SEATTLE, Aug. 2, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Nearly 2 million U.S. homes would be lost if the oceans rise by six feet as scientists expect by the year 2100, according to a new Zillow® analysis. The endangered homes represent just under two percent of the national housing stock, and are worth a cumulative $882 billion.

New research published in the scientific journal Nature found that sea levels could rise six feet by the year 2100, mostly due to melting Antarctic ice sheets. This new estimate nearly doubles previous expectations for rising oceans.

Using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Zillow identified which homes would be affected by the predicted six-foot rise in ocean levelsⁱ.

More than half of all homes that would be lost are in Florida, and they account for nearly half of the lost housing value as well. In all, one in eight Florida homes would be lost. More than 9 percent of homes in Hawaii would be underwater; 81 percent of those are in the capital city of Honolulu. Thirty-six coastal cities would be entirely underwater, and nearly 300 cities would lose at least half their homes.

The at-risk homes along the waterfront are 58 percent more valuable than the average U.S. home. The biggest difference in home values is in Maine, where homes at the water's edge are worth $436,798, more than three times the statewide median home value of $138,900. By contrast, homes at risk of rising oceans are less valuable than the typical home in Hawaii, Maryland, Washington, and Oregon.

"As we move through this century, homeowners will have to consider another factor when it comes to their homes – whether rising sea levels have any impact on them," said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell. "It's easy to think about how the ocean levels can affect the coasts in an abstract sense, but this analysis shows the real impact it will have on nearly two million homeowners - and most likely more by the time we reach 2100 - who could lose their homes."

Among coastal states, Pennsylvania, Oregon and California have the lowest share of homes at risk of being underwaterⁱⁱ. Just 0.1 percent of homes in Pennsylvania would be lost if the ocean level rises six feet.

State	Number of Homes at Risk of Being Underwater	Percent of Homes at Risk of Being Underwater	Total Value of Homes at Risk of Being Underwater	Median Value of Home at Risk of Being Underwater
United States	1,867,801	1.9%	$882 billion	$296,296
California	42,353	0.4%	$49.2 billion	$891,269
Texas	46,804	0.6%	$12 billion	$195,029
New York	96,708	2.1%	$71 billion	$495,712
Florida	934,411	12.6%	$412.6 billion	$262,626
Pennsylvania	2,661	0.1%	$730 million	$188,505
Georgia	24,379	0.7%	$10.2 billion	$291,409
North Carolina	57,259	1.6%	$20.6 billion	$266,693
New Jersey	190,429	7.3%	$93.1 billion	$365,233
Virginia	46,287	1.8%	$14.4 billion	$252,985
Washington	31,235	1.3%	$13.8 billion	$291,965
Massachusetts	62,069	3.1%	$51.2 billion	$551,866
Maryland	64,299	3.1%	$19.6 billion	$233,937
Alabama	12,735	0.8%	$3.8 billion	$234,987
South Carolina	83,833	4.4%	$45 billion	$369,047
Louisiana	80,080	5.9%	$13.2 billion	$139,042
Oregon	4,959	0.4%	$1 billion	$179,424
Connecticut	18,173	1.6%	$13.2 billion	$414,616
Mississippi	5,572	0.7%	$1 billion	$148,161
Hawaii	37,556	9.1%	$25.3 billion	$475,345
Maine	5,412	1.0%	$3.1 billion	$436,798
New Hampshire	4,064	0.7%	$1.7 billion	$337,320
Rhode Island	4,853	1.5%	$2.9 billion	$454,559
Delaware	11,670	3.1%	$3.6 billion	$261,802

Zillow

Zillow® is the leading real estate and rental marketplace dedicated to empowering consumers with data, inspiration and knowledge around the place they call home, and connecting them with the best local professionals who can help. In addition, Zillow operates an industry-leading economics and analytics bureau led by Zillow's Chief Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell. Dr. Gudell and her team of economists and data analysts produce extensive housing data and research covering more than 450 markets at Zillow Real Estate Research. Zillow also sponsors the quarterly Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, which asks more than 100 leading economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists to predict the path of the Zillow Home Value Index over the next five years. Zillow also sponsors the bi-annual Zillow Housing Confidence Index (ZHCI) which measures consumer confidence in local housing markets, both currently and over time. Launched in 2006, Zillow is owned and operated by Zillow Group (NASDAQ:Z and ZG), and headquartered in Seattle.

Zillow is a registered trademark of Zillow, Inc.


ⁱ The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides data on which parts of coastal states will be flooded for various levels for the sea to rise (https://coast.noaa.gov/slrdata/). We combined this data with the location and value of homes in each state and city to determine the value of housing at risk if sea levels rise to six feet.
ⁱⁱ Of states with homes that would be underwater if sea levels rise six feet. Alaska was not included in the NOAA data.