Reportlinker Adds Oil Production in the US

NEW YORK, May 27 /PRNewswire/ -- Reportlinker.com announces that a new market research report is available in its catalogue:

Oil Production in the US

http://www.reportlinker.com/p0201806/Oil-Production-in-the-US.html

Introduction

The US uses more than 20% of all the oil consumed in the world, but domestic production covers only 35% of its requirements. For decades, Democrats and Republicans debated the topic and little has been achieved. However, President Obama has reignited the debate by proposing to implement measures that would reduce oil demand by 35% by 2030 and reduce import dependency during his term in office.

Scope

*Overview of US oil deficit and potential solutions to this crucial energy security dilemma

*Forecasts of US oil production outlook to 2030, both from domestic and imported sources

*Analysis of the Democratic and Republican energy policies, and commentary on how these would affect Datamonitor production forecasts

*Exploration of the fundamental challenges, which any solution to the deficit would need to overcome to succeed

Highlights

The combination of the Democrats' OCS policy and demand reduction will see imports fall 22% by 2021. Obama's OCS pronouncement will cut import dependency by 7% within three years.

Republican policy will only work for one term, making 2016 the crucial year: if they lose, their plan is redundant. If the Republicans fail to win the next election in 2012 but succeed in 2016, their projects would only become available after 2020. At this point the deficit will no longer be so severe.

In the short term, the US needs to reduce demand. By 2030 supply and demand should be better matched. Although one of the US' key supplier, Mexico, could be a net importer by 2016, demand will have fallen as a result of growing popularity of fuel-efficient cars in the country's massive transport fleet.

Reasons to Purchase

*Understand the growing role of the OCS in ensuring US energy security and the political implications of this

*Analyse the impact of transport fuel demand on the country's overall consumption and how this is expected to change

*Formulate a strategic response to changing fuel demands and understand the new supply led dynamics this will create

Oil production in the US and why politics is at the heart of future development 1

Catalyst 1

Summary 1

Caveat: 2

Since completing research for this report, the BP Gulf of Mexico disaster has raised important issues 2

Table of Contents 3

Table of figures 4

Analysis 5

Total US production has declined in every year since 1985 (with two modest exceptions in 2000 and 2007) 5

Forecasts suggest that developments in the Gulf of Mexico could abate the decline 5

US domestic production has been declining for over 20 years, with little hope of reversal 5

US oil production has halved since its peak. While important, the Gulf of Mexico is a minion next to Lower 48 6

Lower 48 production fell heavily from 1965 to 1990, but stabilized, whereas Alaska has barely lasted 30 years 7

Onshore oil production is no longer the powerhouse it used to be, as shale gas steals the attention 7

Until the OCS is developed, offshore oil production will depend upon the Gulf of Mexico's deepwater regions 8

US offshore oil is an underdeveloped resource: its future depends on changes in the regulatory framework 9

However, imports comprise two-thirds of national consumption 10

US imports have been on a continual rise since domestic production hit a major downturn in 1985 10

The US is adapting its import policy to reflect changing patterns in oil supply and demand 10

US decisions are not confined to US needs: they reflect changing patterns in global oil trade dynamics 11

The US oil deficit is a major issue 12

2013-21 will be testing years as the government struggles to ensure energy security 12

Since 1985, the largest US suppliers have easily covered the region's falling production 12

Risks associated with import dependency are myriad and the US has experienced too many of these 12

Forecasts suggest that imports will not be so stretched by 2030 13

In the short term, the US needs to reduce demand; however, by 2030, supply and demand should be better matched 13

Transportation will be by far the largest user of oil for the foreseeable future, and further growth is predicted 14

Passenger vehicles comprise the majority of the US fleet, although vans and small lorries will make inroads 15

Despite its unpopularity, fuel-efficiency has been the determining competitive feature of the US auto sector 15

The effect of fuel-efficient cars on the transport sector's oil consumption could be dramatic 16

The likely effect of the arrival of diesel on the US can be examined using the experiences of Europe as a reference case 16

The transport sector's oil consumption is localized, with the five highest-consuming states using 35% of transport oil 17

The key states' attitudes to transport will dictate their future energy intensity 18

Although diesel remains a small part of fuel consumption in New York, it accounts for all growth in fuel consumption 19

Diesel/hybrid could set New York apart from the US and inspire faster gasoline reduction than seen in Europe 19

A Democratic administration will not neglect the climate to meet this deficit 21

The opening of parts of the OCS will be balanced with investment in nuclear and wind 21

The Democratic Party is on the verge of great things in the energy sector, but will it help the oil deficit? 21

Oil import reduction will not ensure energy security, although the OCS will give more time to find a solution 21

The combination of the Democrats' OCS policy and demand reduction will see imports fall 22% by 2021 22

The impact of wind and nuclear on the oil industry 23

A Republican administration will solve the deficit with little regard for climate 24

All Alaskan and OCS moratoria will be repealed and controversial oil and gas shale will be exploited 24

The Republicans have rarely compromised with fossil fuel skeptics and the next election will be no different 24

Republican policy will only work for one term, making 2016 the crucial year: if they lose, their plan is redundant 24

With the help of Canada, Republicans will solve the oil deficit if they win the 2012 presidential election 25

However, if the Republicans do not win until 2016, the picture looks very different 26

Regardless of which plan is implemented, some major hurdles still need to be overcome 27

Deepwater drilling is difficult and potentially uneconomic 27

Recent discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico mean oil will come from 'ultra-deep' waters 27

Although current technology will not allow all ultra-deep fields to be developed, this is likely to change soon 27

Shale gas will attract huge investment and may put pressure on the industry's available skilled workers 28

US refineries may struggle to meet US quality standards if Canadian imports keep growing 29

Can the US refining sector cope with weak prices, aging infrastructure and heavy, sour, Canadian oil? 29

Conclusion: the US oil deficit should be resolved by 2021, so long as policy makers do not clash over key issues 30

APPENDIX 31

Ask the analyst 31

Datamonitor consulting 31

Disclaimer 31

List of Figures

Figure 1: Domestic oil production versus domestic consumption (1965-2030) 6

Figure 2: US onshore production by region (1965-2030) 7

Figure 3: US offshore oil production by region (1965-2030) 8

Figure 4: US crude oil imports: major countries by volume (1973-2008) 10

Figure 5: Domestic production and top seven import regions, as share of total consumption (1973-2008) 12

Figure 6: Domestic production and top seven import regions, as share of total consumption, forecast to 2019 13

Figure 7: Transportation sector by type of vehicle (2001-07) 14

Figure 8: Transportation sector by type of vehicle (2001-07) 15

Figure 9: Transport oil consumption by state versus share of population, 2009 17

Figure 10: Diesel versus gasoline consumption in New York, 1980-2007 19

Figure 11: US oil production, including President Obama's OCS fields 22

Figure 12: US oil production if Republicans win the 2012 election 25

Figure 13: US oil production if Republicans win the election in 2016 26

Figure 14: Offshore production by depth of well (1965-2030) 27

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